Weekly Reports | Jul 11 2025
This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden revises its view on Aristocrat Leisure following a share price recovery post a weaker-than-expected interim result, marked by a drop in Gaming Ops Fee Per Day.
The broker believes the recent Monopoly licence acquisition is a tactical move in response to increased competition and efforts to sustain market-leading installations above historical averages.
While the analysts remain constructive on the gaming supplier sector and Aristocrat’s long-term prospects, they highlight concerns around incremental returns from recent investments, particularly in the nascent Interactive business.
The broker cautions on the financial justification of recent high-profile licence acquisitions but acknowledges management’s ability to leverage a strong balance sheet.
Jarden downgrades to a Neutral rating from Overweight on a risk/reward basis and retains a $64.00 target price.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgraded Bank of Queensland to Underweight from Neutral due to valuation reasons. This follows a 13% rally in the stock price since the 1H25 result on April 16.
No change to forecasts or target price of $6.70.
G8 EDUCATION LIMITED ((GEM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis notes occupancy improvements were already looking challenging for G8 Education for the rest of 2025, and an additional headwind has emerged with the incident at its Creative Garden Point Cook childcare centre.
The broker believes there is high uncertainty about the potential impact of the incident in terms of occupancy and regulatory risks across the sector.
The analyst downgraded FY25/26/27 EPS forecasts by -3.5%/-4.7%/-5.6%, respectively.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $1.15 from $1.49.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons and Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons revised 4Q25 forecasts for Hub24 to reflect the sharp reversal in the markets since the last update in April.
The broker now expects custodial funds under administration to end FY25 at $112.2bn from $107.3bn previous estimate. EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1% and by 4% for FY26.
Target price rises to $90.62 from $71.50 on EPS revisions and valuation roll-forward. Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight on valuation.
Jarden marked-to-market investment movements for insurance and wealth stocks for the June quarter, noting a fall in risk-free rates, a strong rebound in global equities, USD depreciation and credit spread compression.
The sharp recovery in equity markets drove upgrades to FUA/FUM for wealth and diversified financials stocks.
EPS forecast for Hub24 lifted by 2.6% for FY25 and by 13.6% for FY26.
Target rises to $79.50 from $63.00. Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons and Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons revised 4Q25 forecasts for Netwealth Group to reflect the sharp reversal in the markets since the last update in April. The broker now expects custodial funds under administration to end FY25 at $112.1bn, up 28% y/y.
EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 lifted by 4%.
Target price rises to $34.08 from $27.66 on EPS revisions and valuation roll-forward. Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight on valuation.
Jarden marked-to-market investment movements for insurance and wealth stocks for the June quarter, noting a fall in risk-free rates, a strong rebound in global equities, USD depreciation and credit spread compression.
The sharp recovery in equity markets drove upgrades to FUA/FUM for wealth and diversified financials stocks.
EPS forecast for Netwealth Group lifted by 2.2% for FY25 and by 5.1% for FY26.
Target rises to $27.90 from $24.95. Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
In a preview of the transport and waste sector ahead of the FY25 result, Jarden observes share price gains in the last five months have been driven largely by earnings multiples rather than positive earnings expectations.
The broker believes this could mean an implicit expectation for a stronger earnings outlook. Such an expectation would drive greater share price volatility, should companies disappoint in their guidance, the broker notes.
The broker expects focus on Qantas Airways’ FY26 guidance, and sees fuel cost guidance as a source of upside surprise. The analyst is forecasting $4.7bn vs the consensus of $4.89bn.
Additional positive catalysts come from growth outlook or the plan to distribute surplus capital, the broker notes.
Target cut to $10.20 from $10.50. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on strong share price gains.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downgrade | |||||
| 1 | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 2 | BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 3 | G8 EDUCATION LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
| 4 | HUB24 LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
| 5 | HUB24 LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 6 | NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
| 7 | NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 8 | QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | Alkane Resources | $0.67 | Moelis | 1.15 | 1.05 | 9.52% |
| AMI | Aurelia Metals | $0.20 | Moelis | 0.32 | 0.31 | 3.23% |
| AMP | AMP | $1.46 | Jarden | 1.40 | 1.20 | 16.67% |
| ASX | ASX | $71.59 | Jarden | 69.20 | 68.25 | 1.39% |
| AUB | AUB Group | $33.99 | Jarden | 38.25 | 36.75 | 4.08% |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $0.95 | Moelis | 1.05 | 0.85 | 23.53% |
| BTR | Brightstar Resources | $0.47 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.40 | 1.50 | -6.67% |
| BWP | BWP Trust | $3.55 | Moelis | 3.80 | 3.76 | 1.06% |
| BXB | Brambles | $23.49 | Jarden | 21.65 | 19.80 | 9.34% |
| CGF | Challenger | $8.11 | Jarden | 8.70 | 7.50 | 16.00% |
| CNB | Carnaby Resources | $0.44 | Moelis | 0.87 | 0.80 | 8.75% |
| CSC | Capstone Copper | $9.15 | Moelis | 12.50 | 12.00 | 4.17% |
| CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | $2.84 | Jarden | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.23% |
| FFM | FireFly Metals | $1.15 | Moelis | 1.40 | 1.50 | -6.67% |
| GEM | G8 Education | $0.93 | Moelis | 1.15 | 1.49 | -22.82% |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | $4.12 | Moelis | 4.50 | 4.25 | 5.88% |
| HLS | Healius | $0.75 | Jarden | 0.79 | 0.93 | -15.05% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $93.95 | Jarden | 79.50 | 63.00 | 26.19% |
| Wilsons | 90.62 | 71.50 | 26.74% | |||
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $8.50 | Jarden | 8.45 | 8.40 | 0.60% |
| LIC | Lifestyle Communities | $4.83 | Moelis | 7.90 | 11.50 | -31.30% |
| MAC | MAC Copper | $18.21 | Moelis | 18.50 | 18.93 | -2.27% |
| MFG | Magellan Financial | $9.63 | Jarden | 8.85 | 8.55 | 3.51% |
| MPL | Medibank Private | $5.08 | Jarden | 4.65 | 4.45 | 4.49% |
| NAN | Nanosonics | $3.95 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.15 | 5.74 | -10.28% |
| NHF | nib Holdings | $7.16 | Jarden | 7.75 | 7.20 | 7.64% |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | $34.26 | Jarden | 27.90 | 24.30 | 14.81% |
| Wilsons | 34.08 | 27.66 | 23.21% | |||
| OBM | Ora Banda Mining | $0.73 | Moelis | 0.92 | 1.03 | -10.68% |
| PME | Pro Medicus | $317.69 | Moelis | 323.69 | 285.50 | 13.38% |
| Wilsons | 325.00 | 297.00 | 9.43% | |||
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $20.98 | Wilsons | 25.75 | 23.50 | 9.57% |
| PNR | Pantoro Gold | $3.03 | Moelis | 3.44 | 3.16 | 8.86% |
| PPS | Praemium | $0.72 | Wilsons | 0.71 | 0.67 | 5.97% |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | $0.56 | Jarden | 0.37 | 0.54 | -31.48% |
| Jarden | 0.53 | 0.54 | -1.85% | |||
| QAN | Qantas Airways | $10.81 | Jarden | 10.20 | 10.50 | -2.86% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | $22.96 | Jarden | 25.40 | 24.60 | 3.25% |
| RUL | RPMGlobal | $3.33 | Moelis | 3.75 | 3.26 | 15.03% |
| SDF | Steadfast Group | $5.94 | Jarden | 6.75 | 6.25 | 8.00% |
| SMI | Santana Minerals | $0.54 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.40 | 1.56 | -10.26% |
| STK | Strickland Metals | $0.15 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.36 | 0.19 | 89.47% |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | $1.96 | Wilsons | 2.12 | 2.18 | -2.75% |
| VAU | Vault Minerals | $0.40 | Moelis | 0.75 | 0.70 | 7.14% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
AMI AURELIA METALS LIMITED
Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.20
Moelis rates ((AMI)) as Buy (1)
On the same day as Aurelia Metals’ June quarter production release, an initial assessment by Moelis describes a mixed outcome. Production of gold, copper, and lead came in below the analyst’s expectations, while zinc beat the estimate.
FY25 production landed within guidance across all metals, broadly aligning with midpoints, and costs and capital are expected to be in line.
The balance sheet remains sound, highlights the broker, supported by $110m in cash and an undrawn US$23.6m facility to fund key growth initiatives.
Moelis expects cash outflows of -$31m in FY26 as Great Cobar and plant expansion capex accelerates, with inflection targeted by mid-FY27.
The broker maintains a Buy rating and 32c target price.
This report was published on July 10, 2025.
Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.12 If AMI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 76.7%(ex-dividends) The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents. At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.71.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of -40.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BTR BRIGHTSTAR RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.47
Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTR)) as Speculative Buy (1)
Brightstar Resources published a definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the staged development of the Menzies and Laverton gold projects in Western Australia.
Canaccord Genuity notes the company plans to use cash from the current operating Fish and Second Fortune underground mines to repay $14m debt and partially fund Menzies and Laverton capex. Peak funding is expected to be $120m
The Menzies and Laverton cash flow will be used to fund the flagship Sandstone gold project, which is expected to be in production by late 2028.
Speculative Buy. Target cut to $1.40 from $1.50.
This report was published on July 3, 2025.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.935
If BTR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 201% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.25.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.81.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CEN CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities Overnight Price: $8.26
Jarden rates ((CEN)) as Buy (1)
Jarden believes wholesale electricity prices have likely peaked in NZ after four years of elevated prices, and will moderate towards the end of 2030 on rising supply and greater market certainty.
At the same time, the broker expects a recovery into the 2030s as widespread electrification drives an increase in structural demand growth of 32% through to 2040 from the current levels.
Underpinning this outlook is an improving price capture for hydro assets, economic challenges in solar due to seasonal mismatches, and the ongoing critical role of thermal generation for system security.
Contact Energy is the broker’s top pick in the electricity sector. The broker, however, cut its target price on a worse-than-expected hydro price spread and after including the Manawa acquisition.
Buy. Target cut to NZ$10.83 from NZ$11.11.
This report was published on July 8, 2025.
Current Price is $8.26. Target price not assessed. The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.59 cents and EPS of 49.92 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%. At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 46.91 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%. At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.61.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $8.04
Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2)
Jarden marked-to-market investment movements for insurance and wealth stocks for the June quarter, noting a fall in risk-free rates, a strong rebound in global equities, USD depreciation and credit spread compression.
The broker believes Challenger offers compelling value at current levels, with further support to come from capital changes.
EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1.2% and by 4.3% for FY26.
Overweight. Target rises to $8.70 from $7.50.
This report was published on July 3, 2025.
Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.04 Difference: $0.66
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting downside of -4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 60.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 207.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.40 cents and EPS of 64.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NAN NANOSONICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $3.85
Canaccord Genuity rates ((NAN)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity notes Nanosonics has underperformed in the past month, likely due to worries about FY25 results and fund outflows. The broker reviewed the company’s outlook, noting a competitor for its Trophon technology, Lumicare, is gaining some traction in Australia but lacks FDA approval.
The analyst cut FY25 forecasts for new installed base additions to 2,207 and has upgraded units to 1,485, but expects services revenue per device to beat expectations and consumables sales to remain robust.
Overall, the broker cut FY25 revenue forecast to $188.6m (from $192.9m) vs the company’s $188.7-193.8m guidance.
Buy. Target reduced to $5.15 from $5.74. The valuation comprises of $2.41 for Trophon, $0.51 cash and $2.23 for Coris.
This report was published on July 2, 2025.
Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $1.3
If NAN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 44.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RUL RPMGLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting Overnight Price: $3.18
Moelis rates ((RUL)) as Buy (1)
RPMGlobal announced $64.5m of software total contract value in 2H25, taking FY25 sales to $100.8m, up 31% y/y. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) on July 1 stood at $69.1m vs Moelis’ forecast of $68.3m.
The broker notes the company now has $200m contracted revenue to be recognised in future years, up 24.2% y/y.
The company didn’t give guidance on group revenue, EBITDA or profit before tax, but the broker upgraded the ARR forecast. This pushed up the forecast for FY26 EPS by 5.5% and FY27 by 8%.
Buy. Target price $3.75.
This report was published on July 4, 2025.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.57
If RUL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.35.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.79.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
STK STRICKLAND METALS LIMITED
Mining Overnight Price: $0.15
Canaccord Genuity rates ((STK)) as Speculative Buy (1)
Strickland Metals sold its Yandal gold project in Western Australia to Gateway Mining ((GML)) for $45m in exchange for shares, and will now fully focus on the Rogozna mine in Serbia.
Canaccord Genuity estimates the company has $41m in liquidity, and with seven rigs operating at the Rogozna project, it will be able to advance towards resource updates and mining studies.
The broker sees potential for 1Moz at 3g/t gold at Rogozna’s Gradina deposit and has included it in its valuation modeling.
Speculative Buy. Target rises to 36c from 19c.
This report was published on July 7, 2025.
Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.21 If STK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ - BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GEM - G8 EDUCATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED