Telstra Shares Enjoying Firm Up-Trend

This story features TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS

The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The Chartist notes how Telstra shares have embarked on a sharp uptrend, leaving no easy entry levels for traders.

-Daily, weekly and monthly trends all pointing upwards
-Next technical resistance level identified at $6.20
-Impulsive price action has become the main theme

Bottom Line

16/7:
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Up
Monthly Trend: Up
Support Levels: $4.00 / $3.69 $3.39
Resistance Levels: $6.20

Calendar Events:
Report Date: August 14 2025    Ex-Div Date: T.B.A

Technical Discussion

Reasons to be more optimistic:
-Management has become more optimistic about medium-term growth targets.
-Mobile pricing has remained resilient, which follows 3 years of increases.
-Discounting is starting to fade.
-The company is targeting mid-single digit compound annual growth in cash earnings to FY30.
-Impulsive price action has become the main theme.

The smaller degree patterns were gaining traction during our last review of Telstra ((TLS)). That was back in late April.

The ideal scenario was to push above $4.50, as it would open the door for a decent trend to develop. In that regard, we couldn’t have asked for anything more. If anything, the intensity of the uptrend has increased.

The reason for the long gap between reviews is that an almost straight-line leg higher has been evolving. That’s all well and good if you are already on board, but it doesn’t provide an opportunity to jump on.

There always needs to be a low-risk entry, but until recently, one hasn’t been available. As can be seen, over the past month, a short pause for breath has materialised.

It could continue for a while longer, but it’s not a prerequisite for higher prices. The trend is up, it’s strong, and there’s no reason to fight it. In other words, the risk remains to the upside.

Last time, we squashed the price action up to highlight the larger degree patterns. They are still relevant, but we are going to zoom in to the smaller degree subdivisions this evening.

Before we do, it’s worth mentioning the large head & shoulders pattern, especially as it proved to be the bullish trigger. Once the neckline was overcome, buyers were falling over themselves to jump aboard.

The measured move out of the H&S has been and gone, so there’s no point highlighting it this evening. Suffice it to say, it’s proved to be significant in regard to a major low locking in.

This daily chart looks impressive, but that hasn’t always been the case. It’s been one of more frustrating companies over the years, albeit there have been a couple of significant trends along the way, both up and down.

The major low made in late May last year completed a larger degree wave-2 or-B. From that juncture, a strong 5-wave move has been unfolding. Waves-i and-ii are in place, with the current leg higher within wave-iii likely in its latter stages.

Quite often, third legs will run out of steam around the 1.618 projection. That’s been the way forward here. Over the past few weeks, a small pennant has formed, with the breakout materialising yesterday.

The way the subdivisions are unfolding, it wouldn’t surprise us to see the stock head above the 1.618 projection. That target is only the minimum expectation at this stage of the trend.

In strong trending stocks like this, wave-iii can continue to extend. For symmetry, we’d prefer to see a more substantial period of consolidation around current levels or slightly above.

Trading Strategy

In normal circumstances, we’d have been keen to put forward a recommendation due to the pennant formation. However, with a potential reversal zone in play, it would be aggressive.

Either way, from an Elliott perspective, an interim top could be around the corner, so caution is required. We’d much rather wait for wave-iv to form before getting involved. What we can say is that Telstra has suddenly kicked into gear, which is something that hasn’t happened for a significant period of time.

Re-published with permission of the publisher. www.thechartist.com.au All copyright remains with the publisher. The above views expressed are not by association FNArena’s (see our disclaimer).

This report may contain advice that has been prepared by The Chartist Pty Ltd (ABN 40 641 323 051). The Chartist Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1282007) of Shartru Wealth Management Pty Ltd ABN 46 158 536 871, AFSL 422409. Any advice is considered general advice and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, before acting on this advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation and your own objectives, financial situation and needs. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a product (other than a security e.g. a CFD) then the client should obtain the relevant Product Disclosure Document and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

Risk Disclosure Statement

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING SECURITIES AND LEVERAGED INSTRUMENTS I.E. DERIVATIVES, SUCH AS FUTURES, OPTIONS AND CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATION, NEEDS AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES, OPTIONS AND CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL OF THE RISKS AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECTS OF SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES MARKETS. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR ACCOUNTANT TO DETERMINE WHETHER TRADING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES PRODUCTS IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES.

Technical limitations If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms