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This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Growing supply issues combined with a current lack of utility contracting activity pose upside risks to U308 spot prices down the track.
-Kazatomprom & Cameco report quarterly beats
-Boss Energy's setback sparks investor and hedge fund reaction
-July U308 spot price slips, while utilities return to term markets
-June quarter updates a mixed bag for Australian U308 miners
By Danielle Ecuyer
Cameco is surprised by the weak contracting activity in 2025
The world’s largest producers of uranium, Kazatomprom and Cameco, released June quarter performance updates last week.
Canaccord Genuity points to a slight beat for Kazatomprom, with production of 17mlbs better than expected by 6%, while group sales met expectations. Average realised price was US$60.36/lb compared to US$58.54/lb in 1H25. Management retained production guidance of 65–69mlbs and cost guidance while lowering the sales volume range to 35–38mlbs to account for a deferred delivery.
Regarding Kazatomprom’s new acid plant in the Turkestan region, no insight was provided whether the new facility has its permits and/or that ground has been broken, which means the anticipated 2027–28 ramp-up might be at risk given the 18–24 month construction lead times.
Cameco also reported better than expected revenue and earnings by 9% and 7%, respectively, for 2Q2025, resulting from higher uranium sales, lower costs, and a robust performance from 49% owned Westinghouse Electric (Brookfield Renewable Partners owns the other 51%). Fuel sales were also above estimate by 26%, whereas the average realised price of US$57.35/lb fell short of Canaccord’s forecast at US$60/lb.
Cameco management did lift guidance for average realised U308 price to CA$87/lb from CA$84/lb for 2025. At current forex rates that translatres to around US$63.17/lb from US$61.76/lb.
Westinghouse’s market update missed the analyst’s earnings (EBITDA) forecast but it was still viewed as a good result, around consensus highs.
The outlook remains tied to final investment decisions around nuclear power plants and new AP1000 builds. Current guidance infers compound average growth rate in earnings (EBITDA) of 6%-10% over the next five years, but does not include any post-Feed 1 activity for AP1000 new builds in Poland, Bulgaria, and Ukraine.
(Post-Feed 1 refers to the stage of development following the completion of the first Front-End Engineering and Design Feed 1 phase of a nuclear project.)
For those readers who are interested, Canaccord estimates for each new AP1000 build, it would generate CA$398m in incremental earnings for Westinghouse on a 100% basis. There is potential for upside revisions from new build commitments from the Polish government and in Bulgaria.
Cameco management explained contracting activity year-to-date had been softer than expected but management is encouraged by the recent positive change in the term market. Volumes, however, remain “lacklustre”.
Canaccord believes the longer contracting is delayed, the higher the chance of future U308 price spikes, with more utilities expected to enter the market at a time when supply-side risks are more elevated.
The broker cites the latest travails of Boss Energy ((BOE)) as a case in point.
Boss share price gets clobbered
Following on from Boss Energy’s shock fall from grace, with management bringing into question the ability to achieve nameplate capacity at its Honeymoon operation, the share price has retracted to levels around $1.70, not seen since July 2022.
In addition to last week’s Uranium Weekly update (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/29/uranium-week-boss-energys-honeymoon-shock/), FNArena published a Boss-specific story (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/30/honeymoon-uncertainty-clouds-boss-outlook/).
In terms of the seven FNArena daily monitored brokers, the consensus target price has fallen from a recent high of $3.973 on July 28, pre the June quarter earnings update, to $2.569, a decline of -35%, against a retracement in the share price of -44%-plus.
Clearly, investors are not taking the news lying down, with many choosing to vote with the ‘Sell’ button rather than hold the line for the updated reserve life study.
Hedge funds were quick to react to Boss’s travails, with short interest rising over 3 percentage points to 17.14% from 13.75%, placing the stock back in second position on the ASX after Paladin Energy ((PDN)), still in the top position at 17.35%, up from 16.42%, on July 29.
July spot market saw a having in transaction volumes
Last week marked month-end with industry consultant TradeTech’s spot price coming in at US$71.50/lb for July 31 month-end, which amounted to an average weekly decline of -1.8% over the month.
The weekly spot price has fallen -12.8% in the last 12 months and is down -5.9% year-to-date, yet it remains above the 2025 low of US$63/lb by 13.5%.
Notably, spot deliveries in July came in at 1.3mlbs of U308, some -50% below the 2.7mlbs of U308 that transacted in June.
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) represented almost half of the transaction volume for July, post its US$200m upsized equity raising. The fund acquired 650klbs of U308 and holds 68.4mlbs, with cash on hand remaining at US$60.9m.
July was characterised by smaller transactions in the spot market over the last two weeks for 50klb lots, down from the normal 100klb lots, TradeTech highlights. While activity by utilities in the long-term market picked up.
At month-end, TradeTech’s Mid-term U308 price indicator stood at US$77/lb, down -US$6/lb from the previous month based on recent transactions and current bids/offers, with buyers increasingly inclined to secure one-time deliveries in the mid-term delivery window.
TradeTech’s Long-term U308 price indicator at month-end was US$82/lb, reflecting recent transactions, outstanding offers, and off-market discussions between parties.
In the long-term market, one utility received offers and is in the evaluation process for up to 400klbs U308 annually between 2029 and 2033, with an optional 300klbs to be delivered between 2034 and 2036.
Another utility continues to consider offers for 500klbs U308 for delivery between 2029 and 2033.
Paladin disappoints again, while other miners await higher U308 prices
Lotus Resources’ ((LOT)) June quarter update revealed the start of high-grade ore processing at its restart project, Kayelekera, with first production expected in the September quarter. Leach tanks are operating at full capacity and final commissioning of precipitation, drying, and packaging circuits is in train.
Canaccord forecasts 1H26 production of 121klbs against Lotus’ expectation of 600klbs over the five-month ramp-up period. The offtake agreements do not start until 2026. The miner has 3.5–3.8mlbs contracted, with a further 100klbs in the forward market for delivery in 2026. The analyst believes Lotus can achieve one of the highest price realisations across the sector in 2026, with the company avoiding the spot market.
Ord Minnett estimates Lotus would generate a free cash flow yield of 18%–20% from FY28 onwards when Kayelekera achieves nameplate capacity. The stock is rated a Speculative Buy with a 36c target.
Canaccord Genuity also has a Speculative Buy rating with a 31c target.
In further broker updates on Paladin Energy’s June quarter update, Ord Minnett believes production was a strong beat against consensus expectations, but a lower than anticipated realised U308 price by -20% missed the mark, which resulted in FY25 revenue forecast to be downgraded. In response to the now expected negative free cash flow generation in FY26, the analyst lowered its target to $7.60 from $9.50 while retaining a Buy rating.
Morgan Stanley believes Paladin’s FY26 guidance was a big disappointment, with production expected to be lower than its forecast by -13.4% due to ore feed variability and downtime production allowance. Unit cost guidance for FY26 came in above the analyst’s forecast by 14.6%, and 4Q25 realised pricing was a big miss at US$55.6/lb versus US$69/lb expected. Morgan Stanley retains a Hold-equivalent rating with a target of $7.30 (from $7.45).
Canaccord Genuity bucks the trend, viewing FY26 guidance as conservative and cost estimates as higher, resulting in a downgrade to its forecast earnings (EBITDA) to US$105m from US$121m. No change to its Buy rating, while target slips to $12.60 from $12.80.
Shaw and Partners highlighted Bannerman Energy’s ((BMN)) early construction at the Etango U308 project is in line with the miner’s schedule and budget. Over the June quarter, $85m in equity was raised to be used to fund construction for first U308 production in late 2027, with a final investment decision flagged for 2025-end.
The broker remains bullish on the U308 price and assumes a multiyear price spike to US$150/lb as utilities scramble to cover fuel needs from 2027–2030 amid limited new supply, before retreating to the long-term price forecast of US$80/lb (real) in 2032.
Shaw retains a Buy rating and a $4.70 target price.
Canaccord Genuity retains a Speculative Buy rating and $0.386 target price. The equity raising is seen offering funding and giving the company breathing room to reach a final investment decision by end-2025 on the Etango development, pending a uranium price recovery.
The broker notes the project’s economics are highly sensitive to U308 moves, with each US$5/lb rise lifting its valuation by 10%.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) is taking measured steps towards the development of its two flagship projects, as the company waits for higher U308 prices to support its final investment decision. Canaccord Genuity changes modelling for Mulga Rock, with a reduction in expected operating cost between -8% and -10%. Target price rises to $1.98 from $1.61, with no change in Speculative Buy rating.
This stock is the twelfth most shorted on the ASX at 8.8%, with Lotus in fourteenth position at 7.92% as at July 29.
For more Uranium Weekly updates check out the following:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/08/uranium-week-u3o8-spot-price-poised-to-fall/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 01/08/2025 | 0.0700 |  60.00% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 01/08/2025 | 0.1600 | 6.25% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 01/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 250.0% |
|
| AKN | 01/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 01/08/2025 | 0.1200 | 9.09% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 01/08/2025 | 0.5600 | 0.00% | $0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 01/08/2025 | 2.4900 |  – 9.06% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 88.8% |
|
| BOE | 01/08/2025 | 1.7000 | -10.47% |
$4.75 | $1.68 | -181.4 | $2.569 | 51.1% |
| BSN | 01/08/2025 | 0.0190 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 01/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 01/08/2025 | 0.1000 | – 9.09% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | 10.0% |
|
| CXU | 01/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 01/08/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.23 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 01/08/2025 | 1.5300 | – 8.48% |
$1.87 | $0.75 | -302.0 | $1.940 | 26.8% |
| EL8 | 01/08/2025 | 0.2500 | 0.00% | $0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 01/08/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 01/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 01/08/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 01/08/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% |
$0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 01/08/2025 | 0.0800 | -22.22% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 01/08/2025 | 0.1700 | 41.67% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 01/08/2025 | 0.0300 | -25.00% |
$0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 01/08/2025 | 0.7150 | 0.00% | $0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 01/08/2025 | 0.1600 | -16.67% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.328 | 104.7% |
|
| MEU | 01/08/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 01/08/2025 | 10.2100 | – 5.52% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 26.6% |
|
| ORP | 01/08/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 01/08/2025 | 6.2800 | – 9.70% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | -70.6 | $8.693 | 38.4% |
| SLX | 01/08/2025 | 4.3300 | -12.03% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 50.1% |
|
| TOE | 01/08/2025 | 0.1900 | – 4.76% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 01/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 50.00% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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