Uranium Week: U308 Renaissance Powers Up

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Megatrends continue to drive nuclear energy capacity forecasts, while utilities seek out formal requests for proposals in a quiet spot U308 market

-Morgan Stanley upgrades nuclear forecasts on AI and energy megatrends
-Equinix turns to advanced nuclear to fuel global data centres
-ASX uranium producers brace for tough investor questions post FY25 results

By Danielle Ecuyer

Orginal version has been corrected to reflect the correct dates for the following “A non-US utility issued a formal request seeking 9mlbs of U308 for delivery between 2027 and 2036, with offers due no later than September 15.”

India is the latest nation to up its nuclear power ambitions

In what was a relatively quiet week on the uranium/nuclear news front, Morgan Stanley came out with all guns blazing, figuratively speaking, on the outlook for the global uranium industry.

Building on its June 2024 report “A Nuclear Renaissance Is Coming”, the broker articulated the theme is already in full swing, and the next phase will be characterised by a robust build out in capacity with three global megatrend tailwinds: Tech diffusion, a multi-polar world and the future of energy.

Tech diffusion refers to the premium nuclear power will hold in the “Age of AI”, where both energy reliability and density will play an essential role for data centres, the cloud and large language model processing.

In a multipolar world, Morgan Stanley identifies Korea, and over the longer term Japan, as winners in the global nuclear market against a backdrop of Chinese and Indian dominance.

Fourth Generation reactors and thorium-based technologies are expected to underpin the future of energy with small modular reactors likely to have a role over the longer term.

Morgan Stanley has upgraded its base case forecast for new global nuclear capacity by 2050 to 586.8GW, a rise of 53% on the 2024 base case. Estimated capacity has grown since last year’s study primarily across China, India and the US with the base case forecast assuming only 50% of the US and Indian capacity targets are achieved.

By way of context, India announced its target for a twelve-fold increase in nuclear capacity by 2047 (100GW from 8GW) as well as was ending its state monopoly over the nuclear sector, allowing private companies to mine, import and process uranium. The Modi government is also relaxing requirements which will enable foreign entities to assume a minority stake in power plants.

The nuclear goal will achieve around 5% of India’s total power requirements, the government estimates.

Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa markets have surpassed the capacity growth expectations which are anticipated to benefit Japan and Korea in a multipolar world. The current pipeline under construction, planned or proposed for these regions places them as the second largest market after China.

Morgan Stanley now forecasts capital investment of circa US$2.2trn, up from US$1.5trn estimated last year. The forecast sits below estimates published by the International Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In other news, Equinix has entered several nuclear power deals for its global data centres. The deals included plans to procure 500MW of energy from Oklo’s next generation nuclear fission plants as well as a pre-order agreement for twenty transportable microreactors from Radiant Nuclear.

Equinix also entered agreements with Bloom Energy and next generation nuclear developers in Europe, ULC-Energy and Stellaria.

The announcement by the generally acknowledged largest data centre operator, Equinix, reaffirms Morgan Stanley’s AI thematic as a driver for the industry.

U308 producers set to report FY25 earnings at the end of the season

August earnings season is moving into full gear with most ASX-listed companies reporting over the last two weeks of August.

Australia’s two U308 producers, Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN)), are no exception. Alongside developer Bannerman Energy ((BMN)), they are all due to announce FY25 results on August 29, the final day.

Both Boss and Paladin disappointed investors with their 4Q25 update, most notably Boss for raising concerns over Honeymoon’s ability to reach nameplate capacity as well as question marks over mine life. Investors will no doubt be seeking some answers around this issue and what plans management is pursuing.

For Paladin, the focus will be on the ongoing ramp up of Langer Heinrich and the FY26 outlook.

Short interest has continued to rise in these stocks with Boss remaining at the top of the list of ASX200’s most shorted stock. As at August 12, the declared short interest as published by ASIC stood at 21.23%, up from 19.67% a week earlier and 14.41% a month earlier, pre the disastrous quarterly update.

Paladin’s short interest at 18.21% places it in second position, up from 17.8% a week ago and 16.92% the month prior.

Deep Yellow ((DYL)) is in fourteenth place at 8.25% and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) in nineteenth at 7.32%, down from 8.16% a week prior.

Bannerman rose to 5.01% from 3.81% and sits outside of the top twenty of most shorted ASX200 stocks.

FNArena daily monitored brokers’ consensus target for Boss is $2.569 with three Buy-equivalent, two Hold-equivalent, and two Sell-equivalent ratings.

The consensus target price for Paladin is $8.693 with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent rating.

A becalmed U308 spot market, belies utilities putting out formal propposal requests

Industry consultants TradeTech reported the U308 spot price advanced to US$73lb, up from US$72lb in the previous week and up 2.8% over the last month.

Two transactions were conducted on Tuesday, one by the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust for 50klbs at US$72lb, which brings the total Trust purchases to 2.3mlbs of U308 since June 20.

The second transaction was 100klbs at US$72lb. Wednesday and Thursday were “exceptionally” quiet as the market awaited the Alaska meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin, until one buyer securing 50klbs at US$73lb on Thursday afternoon.

TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator stands at US$77lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$82lb.

In the term U308 market, new demand was reported by TradeTech as coming from various regions, with US and non-US utilities issuing formal Request for Proposals or engaging in off-market discussions with possible suppliers.

One US utility is seeking up to 400klbs of U308 annually between 2029 and 2033, along with an optional 300klbs per annum for delivery between 2034 and 2036, and has selected preferred supplier(s).

Another US utility seeking 500klbs of U308 for delivery between 2029 and 2033 has concluded its evaluation and has selected preferred supplier(s); and a further US utility is evaluating offers for delivery of up to 2.5mlbs equivalent for delivery over a five-year period.

A non-US utility issued a formal request seeking 9mlbs of U308 for delivery between 2027 and 2036, with offers due no later than September 15.

For more reading:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/12/uranium-week-cusp-of-a-new-contracting-cycle/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/

Uranium companies listed on the ASX:

ASX CODE	DATE	LAST PRICE	WEEKLY % MOVE	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	P/E	CONSENSUS TARGET	UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
1AE	15/08/2025	0.0600	0.00%	$0.09	$0.03
AEE	15/08/2025	0.1600	– 5.88%	$0.19	$0.10
AGE	15/08/2025	0.0200	0.00%	$0.05	$0.02		$0.070	250.0%
AKN	15/08/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.01	$0.01
ASN	15/08/2025	0.1100	0.00%	$0.13	$0.04
BKY	15/08/2025	0.5500	5.88%	$0.67	$0.31
BMN	15/08/2025	2.3500	– 4.30%	$3.68	$1.76		$4.700	100.0%
BOE	15/08/2025	1.6800	– 7.07%	$4.75	$1.68	-180.3	$2.569	52.9%
BSN	15/08/2025	0.0200	0.00%	$0.04	$0.01
C29	15/08/2025	0.0200	0.00%	$0.13	$0.01
CXO	15/08/2025	0.1300	0.00%	$0.14	$0.06		$0.110	-15.4%
CXU	15/08/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.03	$0.01
DEV	15/08/2025	0.0800	0.00%	$0.21	$0.07
DYL	15/08/2025	1.4800	– 3.82%	$1.87	$0.75	-298.0	$1.940	31.1%
EL8	15/08/2025	0.2800	12.00%	$0.42	$0.19
ERA	15/08/2025	0.0020	0.00%	$0.02	$0.00
GLA	15/08/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.02	$0.01
GTR	15/08/2025	0.0040	0.00%	$0.01	$0.00
GUE	15/08/2025	0.0600	0.00%	$0.10	$0.05
HAR	15/08/2025	0.0800	0.00%	$0.09	$0.03
I88	15/08/2025	0.2200	0.00%	$0.72	$0.08
KOB	15/08/2025	0.0300	0.00%	$0.18	$0.03
LAM	15/08/2025	0.6400	– 1.54%	$0.90	$0.48
LOT	15/08/2025	0.1600	0.00%	$0.32	$0.13		$0.328	104.7%
MEU	15/08/2025	0.0400	0.00%	$0.06	$0.03
NXG	15/08/2025	10.5300	– 0.47%	$13.53	$6.44		$12.925	22.7%
ORP	15/08/2025	0.0300	0.00%	$0.07	$0.02
PDN	15/08/2025	6.5900	0.45%	$13.27	$3.93	-74.1	$8.693	31.9%
SLX	15/08/2025	3.8200	– 1.28%	$6.62	$2.28		$6.500	70.2%
TOE	15/08/2025	0.1900	0.00%	$0.36	$0.15
WCN	15/08/2025	0.0300	0.00%	$0.04	$0.01

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