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As major producers Cameco and Kazatomprom lower production, brokers and commodity specialists highlight positive dynamics for U3O8 prices.
-UBS turns more positive on uranium outlook ahead of WNA Symposium
-Kazatomprom and Cameco production issues trigger renewed spot market buying
–Goehring & Rozencwajg declare second leg of U3O8 bull market has begun
-Paladin and Boss Energy face mixed reactions post earnings
By Danielle Ecuyer
Major producers cut back production outlook
Ahead of the World Nuclear Association Symposium in London (Sept 3-5), UBS has become slightly more bullish on the uranium outlook. Noting the U308 spot price has plateaued around US$75/lb, UBS sees rising optimism the fundamentals for the commodity are improving.
Market positives cited include changes in supply dynamics with ongoing production pressures for Kazatomprom and Cameco announcing it would miss supply forecasts for production volume in 2025 this past week.
Kazatomprom, the world’s largest U308 producer accounting for circa 20% of global supply, announced it would lower 2026 production by some -10%, reducing the output to 77.2mlbs of U308 from 85.2mlbs. At around -8mlbs, that equals some -5% of global volume.
As noted by industry consultants TradeTech, Kazatomprom’s announcement spurred on a series of spot market purchases with six transactions in the final week of August, as well as several off-market transactions which fell outside the spot delivery window.
One buyer secured a price of US$74.25/lb for delivery in September at Cameco’s Canadian facility before the Kazatomprom news broke.
Three transactions were achieved on Wednesday, one for 100klbs at US$74.50 for Orano’s French facility, a 50klb transaction at US$74.85, again for September delivery for Orano, and a third for 100klbs at US$75/lb for Cameco.
Thursday saw one transaction of 100klbs, again for September delivery for Cameco, and Friday had one transaction at US$76.30/lb for delivery in October at Honeywell’s US facility.
The TradeTech spot price rose to US$76.30/lb, a rise of US$1.30/lb on the week, with the move coming on Friday on the back of to Cameco’s Thursday afternoon announcement that the transition of the McArthur River mine to new mining areas is expected to be delayed, resulting in the postponement of extraction plans for later in 2025.
McArthur River/Key Lake is now flagged to produce 14-15mlbs of U308, down from 18mlbs previously. Cameco noted shortfalls would be bought on the spot market, plus the potential remains for a more robust performance at Cigar Lake that could partially offset the shortfall by some 1mlbs, with current production forecast at 18mlbs this year.
Cameco: “We believe our balanced and disciplined strategy and embedded risk management, which includes diversified production assets and access to multiple sources of supply, position us well to effectively mitigate the impact of these types of disruptions, meet our delivery commitments, and continue to deliver long-term value.”
UBS is positive on the longer-term demand dynamics, pointing to continued nuclear facility expansion inside China.
Over August, TradeTech exchange value rose by US$4.80/lb to US$76.30/lb from July 31, which means the spot U308 price has regained most of the price action it lost over July and August.
TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator for August 31 was US$80/lb up US$3/lb from last month’s value and the Long-Term price indicator was unchanged at US$82/lb over August.
August results from Paladin and Boss Energy
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) reported FY25 results with sales already pre-reported at 2.7mlbs at an average price of US$65.70/lb with an average cost of production of US$40.20/lb. Cash at year end was US$89m, with net profit after tax of US$77m, missing UBS’ and consensus expectations.
Investors were mainly concentrating on Paladin’s Patterson Lake South Project and the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED), which proved more conservative against prior assessments. Life of mine production was unchanged at 90.9mlbs, as was average annual production of 9.1mlbs.
Capex estimates were lifted to over -US$1.2bn compared to UBS’ estimate of circa -US$1.1bn, and cash costs rose by around 20% to US$11.7/lb, with all-in-sustaining-costs of US$15.2/lb approaching the UBS forecast of circa US$17/lb.
First production is targeted for 2031, including a three-year build. The miner’s September quarter update will be focused on Langer Heinrich, and UBS flags 0.97mlbs production.
UBS retains a Buy rating and $9 target on the stock. The consensus target price derived from FNArena’s daily monitored brokers stands at $8.729, with five Buy ratings.
Regarding Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) FY25 result, Ord Minnett suggests the report was largely immaterial as the 4Q25 had been pre-released and no new forward-looking disclosures were offered. Earnings were, however, impacted by -$37m in inventory costs as initial sales came from higher priced stockpiled uranium rather than Honeymoon output.
Independent experts are continuing to review Honeymoon’s mineral resource estimate and potential wellfield performance against previous assumptions. Macquarie notes at this stage, the resource is lowered by -1.4% to 6.5mlbs, and no date was offered on the timeline for review completion.
With two brokers yet to comment on Boss’ results, the FNArena consensus target stands at $2.543, with two Buy ratings, two Holds and one Sell rating.
As at August 26, Boss retained the highest short interest on the ASX at 20.42%, up 3.16% on the prior week. Paladin remains in second position at 18.24%, up 2.55% on the week before.
Lotus Resources ((LOT)) also experienced a rise in short interest to 8.53% from 4.86%, up 3.67%.
Expert voices on the upbeat U308 trend
Goehring & Rozencwajg’s latest Natural Resource Market Commentary reaffirmed the bullish view on uranium and nuclear energy.
Back in June, FNArena reported on Goehring & Rozencwajg’s analysis of how hedge funds had cornered the spot U308 market and how the market was set up for a short squeeze, based on the (flawed) thesis that The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust would run out of funds and would need to sell U308 on the spot market.
Details can be found in the following article. (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/03/uranium-week-how-funds-cornered-the-market/)
As it transpired, Sprott raised US$200m, an upsized deal from US$100m initially. Morgan Stanley highlighted this week the trust had acquired over 2.3mlbs of U308 since June, which has boosted spot demand.
For more details: (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/08/uranium-week-u3o8-spot-price-poised-to-fall/).
Morgan Stanley sees further upside to the U308 price and forecasts US$87/lb for 4Q 2025 as supply challenges are re-emerging, notably through Kazatomprom and Cameco’s latest updates.
Cameco’s second quarter results showed inventory had declined to 7.6mlbs U308 equivalent from 11mlbs at December 31, 2024. Paladin also noted on its August 28 earnings calls that a Korean utility had made a request for the purchase of 9mlbs. Korea has not filled any volumes over the last two years and Europe also has “large unfilled volumes that need to be filled later this year”.
Goehring & Rozencwajg proposes:
“This was not simply a short-term skirmish. The nuclear power story is no longer about possibility; it’s about arrival. Announcements keep coming, new reactors, new fuel demand, new commitments, and each one tightens the long-term supply picture….
“The first leg of this bull market in uranium is behind us. Prices have already risen nearly fivefold in four years. Now, with the air clearer and the bears scattered, we believe the second leg, stronger, faster, and more decisive, has begun.”
For more recent uranium updates at FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 29/08/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 29/08/2025 | 0.1900 |  18.75% |
$0.21 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 29/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 250.0% |
|
| AKN | 29/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 29/08/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 29/08/2025 | 0.5300 |  – 3.64% |
$0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 29/08/2025 | 3.0000 | 8.75% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 56.7% |
|
| BOE | 29/08/2025 | 1.9900 | 10.73% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 10.1 | $2.543 | 27.8% |
| BSN | 29/08/2025 | 0.0400 | 66.67% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 29/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 29/08/2025 | 0.1100 | -15.38% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 29/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 29/08/2025 | 0.0800 | -11.11% |
$0.19 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 29/08/2025 | 1.8700 | 14.47% |
$1.88 | $0.75 | -370.0 | $1.940 | 3.7% |
| EL8 | 29/08/2025 | 0.3100 | 3.33% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 0.0020 | 0.00% |
$0.01 | $0.00 | ||||
| GLA | 29/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 29/08/2025 | 0.1300 | 3150.00% |
$0.13 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 29/08/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 29/08/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 29/08/2025 | 0.2200 | – 4.55% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 29/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 29/08/2025 | 0.5700 | 0.00% | $0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 29/08/2025 | 0.2200 | 11.11% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.328 | 48.9% |
|
| MEU | 29/08/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 29/08/2025 | 12.0100 | 9.20% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 7.6% |
|
| ORP | 29/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 29/08/2025 | 8.0900 | 12.79% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | 58.2 | $8.729 | 7.9% |
| PEN | 29/08/2025 | 0.3500 | -43.55% |
$2.20 | $0.33 | $1.000 | 185.7% |
|
| SLX | 29/08/2025 | 4.0600 | 10.08% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 60.1% |
|
| TOE | 29/08/2025 | 0.1900 | 0.00% | $0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 29/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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