Weekly Reports | Sep 09 2025
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A quiet spot U308 market, belied the bullish forecasts emanating from the World Nuclear Association's London symposium.
-WNA Symposium highlights nuclear capacity upgrade and looming uranium supply gap
-Citi turns bullish on U308 with spot and term prices expected to rise
-Corporate news flows from Bannerman, Lotus and Brazilian Rare Earths add fuel to the sector
By Danielle Ecuyer
Global uranium demand likely to exceed supply
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in London last week was the cornerstone event for the uranium/nuclear industries, with more than 1,000 delegates and 56 nations in attendance across all aspects of the supply chain, including the nuclear and finance industries.
The Executive Plenary Program opened with the WNA Director General, Dr Sama Bilbao y Leon, requesting “bold, visionary leadership” for the nuclear sector.
“Tripling capacity by 2050 is ambitious, but as many noted, it is the bare minimum required”… she went on to point out a previous statement from the International Energy Agency that global data centre electricity consumption could reach around 945 TWh by 2030, which is roughly equivalent to Japan’s current electricity consumption.
The Association’s reports highlighted an upgrade in the nuclear capacity outlook. Under the reference scenario, global operable capacity is forecast to reach around 449GW by 2030, and circa 746GW by 2040, including around 49GW of small modular reactors (SMRs). China and India are expected to underpin over half of the additions, with existing plant life extensions contributing.
Uranium demand is expected to rise by 28-30% to 86kt by 2030 and to 150kt by 2040, while output is expected to halve from current mines from 2030-2040, which will result in a significant demand/supply gap.
Top major mines are expected to deplete in the 2030s, and the timeline to bring new mines on stream has lengthened to around 10-20 years from 8-15 years.
New investment in conversion is also needed, with the conversion market “very tight” and geo-political tensions emphasising the need to diversify away from Russian supplies.
In 2024, nuclear reactors globally generated 2,667TWh of electricity, the largest amount in one year from this source, beating the previous record in 2006 of 2,660TWh. The global average capacity rose to 83% from 82% in FY23, with more than 60% of reactors delivering capacity of more than 80%.
Seven reactors were completed in 2024 and connected to the electricity grid. Three in China, with the remaining four in the United Arab Emirates, France, India and the US.
Seventy reactors are currently under construction, with nine started in 2024, six in China, one each in Pakistan, Egypt and Russia.
Another very upbeat take on the U308 outlook
In Citi’s latest Cross Commodities Outlook Report, the enthusiasm for uranium is on show, with the sectorf analysts stating categorically they are very “bullish” on U308.
The broker’s current 0-3 month U308 spot price target sits at US$80/lb and the 6-12 month target at US$100/lb. The forecast annual U308 spot price average for 2025 is US$73/lb and for 2026 it is US$93/lb. The long-term price estimate stands at US$63/lb.
Uranium prices are expected to remain “elevated” over the next two to three years and are predicated on the potential for existing producers to under-deliver, with an increasing demand for energy spurring a rise in nuclear capacity.
Last week’s Uranium Weekly outlined the cuts in production outlooks from the world’s largest suppliers, Kazatomprom and Cameco, with Australia’s Boss Energy ((BOE)) currently reviewing the mine life and production outlook for its restarted Honeymoon project. For more details see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/02/uranium-week-bull-markets-second-leg/
Citi’s outlook aligns with commentary from the WNA last week around pending demand and supply imbalances. Increasing demand from China, the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and the ‘overfeeding’ by enrichers, meaning more natural uranium is consumed for the same output of enriched product, are not being discounted as significant risk factors for uranium demand and supply balances.
Demand from SMRs is estimated by Citi to reach 20% of total uranium demand by 2040.
What happened in the spot U308 market last week
Despite the upbeat tone set at the WNA Symposium, the U308 spot price market was relatively becalmed. According to industry consultants TradeTech, the weekly spot price came in at US$77.25/lb by Friday, a rise of US$0.95/lb on the prior week.
On Wednesday, one buyer secured 200klbs for September delivery at Orano’s French facility priced at US$76/lb. A second transaction on Thursday at US$75.80/lb for 100klbs delivery at Honeywell’s Metropolis facility was conducted for end of September delivery.
A final trade for Honeywell at US$77.25/lb was noted by TradeTech on Friday.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator is US$80/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$82/lb.
In the long-term market, several utilities are evaluating offers and have inferred they will enter the market in coming weeks to secure supply, with the base long-term price indicated around the US$82/lb level, the consultants highlight.
Australian U308 producers continue to make news
In the latest corporate news, Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) announced it has signed its first off take agreement with US tier-one energy utilities from its Etango uranium project in Namibia, totaling one mlbs of U308 over a five-year period from 2029-2033.
Shaw and Partners notes while not named, the utilities are two of North America’s largest energy providers and Fortune 500 companies, suggesting names such as Duke Energy or Constellation, for example.
Management at Bannerman believes term contract prices for U308 will continue to strengthen, with the analyst concurring with the view.
The signing of the contracts at this stage, when first production is not due until 2027/28, infers that a reluctance to commit before suggests the producer believes a new uranium super cycle is starting. Shaw and Partners agrees with the proposition.
Etango’s first stage is for 3.5mlbs of U308 production, and the contracts represent circa 6% of output over the five-year contract term.
The quality of the counterparties substantially de-risks the project, according to Shaw, who is expecting the U308 price to continue to rise with US and European utilities not covered yet for their fuel requirements from 2027-2030, with limited new supply available over that period.
Shaw forecasts a multi-year price spike to US$150/lb, before the long-term realised price moves to US$90/lb in 2032.
Bannerman is rated Buy with a $4.70 target price.
Brazil is also looking to step up its uranium profile, with news last week the government is reportably set to announce new legislation to increase nuclear mining by offering private companies improved flexibility.
Media articles suggest the government will adopt a 20% profit share with private companies rather than the existing 100%, and will auction uranium leases, as well as buy the product, as exports are banned.
Ord Minnett raised the potential change in relation to Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE)), with its Rocha da Rocha province, including the Monte Alto project, generating U308 by-product from its rare earth deposits.
The analyst estimates the revenue from Monte Alto could rise by $60m p.a. if the U308 profit sharing dropped to 20% from 100%, which would add 55c per share to the producer’s net asset value.
The stock is currently rated Speculative Buy with a $6.30 target price.
It’s also been a big week for Lotus Resources ((LOT)) with a $65m equity raising at 19c per share as well as the first yellowcake production at Kayelekera. Canaccord Genuity notes management’s target set a nameplate output of 200klbs per month by 1Q 2026 and the first dispatch in late 2025.
Macquarie believes there will be a rise in working capital needs over the upcoming 2-3 quarters, as inventories rise in Malawi and finished goods are placed on the road to Dar es Salaam and on the water to the US before any cash is received from customers. Management is continuing to negotiate working capital facilities, which is taking longer than anticipated.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have an average target price of 29.5c per share, with three Buy-equivalent ratings, two ascribed Speculative and one Buy (albeit dated from April).
Canaccord Genuity and Petra Capital are also Buy rated, with 31c and 30c target prices, respectively.
Short interest as of September 2 retained Boss and Paladin Energy in the number one and two top positions, respectively, on the ASX at 20.10%, down -0.27% on the prior week, and at 17.64%, down -0.6%.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) came in at sixteenth spot at 8.24% and Lotus at seventeenth at 8.18%, down -0.34%.
For more reading, see the latest Uranium Week articles at FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 05/09/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 05/09/2025 | 0.2300 |  5.00% |
$0.23 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 05/09/2025 | 0.0200 | 10.00% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 250.0% |
|
| AKN | 05/09/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 05/09/2025 | 0.0900 |  -10.00% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 05/09/2025 | 0.5300 | 0.00% | $0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 05/09/2025 | 3.3800 | 8.75% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 39.1% |
|
| BOE | 05/09/2025 | 2.1000 | – 1.50% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 13.2 | $2.543 | 21.1% |
| BSN | 05/09/2025 | 0.0500 | 17.50% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 05/09/2025 | 0.0200 | -15.00% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 05/09/2025 | 0.1100 | -12.50% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 05/09/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 05/09/2025 | 0.0900 | 4.44% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 05/09/2025 | 1.9700 | 2.14% |
$1.98 | $0.75 | -392.0 | $1.940 | – 1.5% |
| EL8 | 05/09/2025 | 0.3200 | – 6.25% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 05/09/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% |
$0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 05/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 50.00% |
$0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 05/09/2025 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 05/09/2025 | 0.0600 | -16.67% |
$0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 05/09/2025 | 0.0900 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 05/09/2025 | 0.2500 | 4.55% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 05/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 05/09/2025 | 0.5800 | 1.75% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 05/09/2025 | 0.2000 | -15.91% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 47.5% |
|
| MEU | 05/09/2025 | 0.0410 | 2.50% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 05/09/2025 | 11.9200 | – 2.26% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 8.4% |
|
| ORP | 05/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 05/09/2025 | 8.2400 | – 2.10% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | 60.1 | $8.729 | 5.9% |
| PEN | 05/09/2025 | 0.3100 | -15.71% |
$2.20 | $0.29 | $1.000 | 222.6% |
|
| SLX | 05/09/2025 | 4.0900 | – 3.42% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 58.9% |
|
| TOE | 05/09/2025 | 0.1800 | – 7.89% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 05/09/2025 | 0.0200 | -20.00% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRE - BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED
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