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September isn't just a favourite song from Earth, Wind and Fire, it was also a great month for the U308 price and stocks.
-Morgan Stanley forecasts US$2.2trn in global nuclear investment by 2050
-US utilities face growing uranium supply gap despite higher prices
-Spot market volumes hit two-year high as Sprott and Yellow Cake buy in
-NexGen and Lotus advance Canadian and African uranium projects
By Danielle Ecuyer
Macro picture paints a positive scene for U308
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management points to the affirmation of a “nuclear renaissance” which the broker initially forecast in June 2024.
Increased support from the US administration, in combination with strong growth in demand for reliable clean power from hyperscalers as AI infrastructure is built out, continues to frame a positive outlook for the sector.
The base case for new nuclear capacity globally is forecast at 586GW by 2050, growth of 53% from 2024, with much of the expansion concentrated in India, China, and the US, with only 50% of the US’ and Indian targets expected to be met by 2050.
Interestingly, the new capacity growth in Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa has surprised to the upside and could be to the benefit of Japan and Korea. Combined markets for these regions make them the second largest after China.
Small modular reactors continue to be considered a next-decade technology. Only four are in operation across the world, with five under construction. The US has the most robust pipeline of 17 SMR projects. Morgan Stanley forecasts the technology could be online by 2030 and achieve between 2-5GWs by 2035.
Capital investment of around US$2.2trn is forecast, up from US$1.5trn estimated last year. In contrast to forecasts from the International Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Morgan Stanley’s estimates are pitched lower and more conservatively.
Weight of money has also been moving more favourably towards the sector, with global assets under management that exclude nuclear power at 2.3% at the end of 2024 compared to alcohol at 2.9%, military contracting at 4.7%, and gambling at 5.1%.
A more positive disposition to lending to the industry has also evolved, with the likes of the World Bank removing its financing ban which had been in place for decades.
US utilities expected to face uranium stock shortfall
The US Energy Information Administration warned last week that utilities signed fewer contracts for delivery last year due to higher uranium prices. The organisation warned higher costs are encouraging utilities to postpone decisions to cover future fuel needs, even though less than one tenth of uranium delivered to US reactors is usually bought on the spot market.
In 2024, US civilian nuclear power reactors acquired 55.9mlbs of U308 equivalent, up 8% on 2023, at a weighted average price of US$52.71/lb compared to US$43.6/lb the prior year, the highest price since 2012.
Canada was the largest source at 36% of total deliveries in 2024, followed by Kazakhstan and Australia, at 24% and 17%, respectively.
The organisation forecasts the uranium supply gap could grow to -184mlbs, or more than three years of consumption. A lack of long-term supply deals may require more utilities to move to shorter-term plans to keep reactors going.
What happened in September
After a lacklustre and sporadic start to the month, according to industry consultants TradeTech, activity and spot prices picked up over the last two weeks, carrying the Global X Uranium ETF with it, up nearly 15%.
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust was back in action, raising US$307.6m over September and acquiring 3.4mlbs of U308. The investment fund currently has over 72mlbs of U308 with cash of US$92.9m (operational costs are cited at US$44m p.a.).
As highlighted in last week’s FNArena Uranium Weekly (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/30/uranium-week-sprott-spurs-spot-price-glow/), London-listed Yellow Cake plc raised US$125m to purchase 1.33mlbs of U308, using the company’s purchase option for 2025 under its agreement with Kazatomprom.
TradeTech’s U308 spot price rose US$6.95/lb from August 31 and compares to the April low of US$64/lb, up US$19.25/lb.
Over the month, the consultant’s U308 spot price rose on average 1.8% per week, with 5.6mlbs of U308 equivalent traded on the spot market. This is the highest monthly volume in over two years, with buying interest from utilities, physical funds, traders, and producers.
TradeTech’s Mid-term U308 price indicator came in at US$87/lb versus US$80/lb at August 31, and the Long-term price indicator at US$84/lb against US$82/lb at August 31.
Over the course of last week, wrapping up the end of September and the start of October, the TradeTech spot price fell -US$1.25/lb to US$81.25/lb. The Mid-term price sits at US$87/lb and the Long-term price at US$84/lb.
Nine transactions were conducted over the week, with four on Tuesday including 50klbs for delivery at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility at prices between US$83 and US$83.75/lb. Wednesday saw a further three transactions for 450klbs at US$82.75/lb.
Two transactions followed on Friday for 150klbs for October delivery to ConverDyn at US$81.25/lb and for 200klbs also for ConverDyn at the same price.
TradeTech notes the spot market is entering what is often a quieter time of the year, with much of the buying already having taken place.
The latest corporate news
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) has upscaled its announced equity capital raising with a fully underwritten offering of around 45.8m shares at $13.10 to raise $600m, or circa US$396.5m.
The developer has also issued 33.1m shares at CAD12.08 for about US$287.1m to a syndicate of underwriters. The net proceeds from the offers are to move engineering works forward for the Rook-1 project.
UBS, which does not cover the company, met up with NexGen to discuss the Rook 1 project. The analyst noted the company is more upbeat on the price outlook for uranium post the World Nuclear Association’s London event, which corresponds to UBS’ recent upgrade in near-term U308 price forecast by around 10% to US$80/lb.
The Rook 1 project continues to progress. The hearing with the first Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission is slated for November 19 and a second on November 26. A final decision is anticipated by April 2026.
The project is so large its nameplate capacity is anticipated to generate around 30mlbs per annum, which equates to circa 20% of supply, although the market will continue to focus on approval and US$1.6bn funding for the project, the broker suggests.
UBS continues to prefer Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and rates it Buy with a $9 target, including its Canadian Patterson Lake Project located near Rook 1.
Canaccord Genuity outlines Lotus Resources’ ((LOT)) Kayelekera restart has produced its first uranium, with commissioning progressing well throughout the September quarter. Capex for the remaining restart costs stands at -US$23m, with an additional -US$20m deferred to FY26.
Post its recent US$42m capital raising and accounting for ongoing capex, Canaccord Genuity forecasts Lotus will have net working capital of around US$53m, which is believed to be sufficient to achieve first positive operating cash flow.
Nameplate production of 2.4mlbs is flagged for 1Q2026, with the miner’s restart study anticipating 600klbs of production during the first five-month ramp-up.
Compared to the broker’s forecast, management expects Kayelekera to achieve a run rate around 7-12 months ahead of expectations. In turn, this could lay the ground for Canaccord to upgrade its FY26 and FY27 production forecasts, which currently sit at around 650klbs and 1,800klbs, respectively.
The stock retains a Speculative Buy rating and unchanged 31c target price.
Short interests in September
As at September 29, Boss Energy ((BOE)) remained the second most shorted stock on the ASX200 at 17.27%, down -0.72% on the prior week and down -3.6%pts from a month earlier.
Paladin came in at sixth position at 11.30%, down -0.91% on the prior week marking a decline of -6.52% points on the prior month.
Silex Systems ((SLX)) is basically unchanged at 8.6% (thirteenth position), and Deep Yellow at 7.34%, up slightly from 7.21%, sits in nineteenth position.
For more reading on uranium see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/16/uranium-week-buyers-strike-pre-major-deals/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 03/10/2025 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 03/10/2025 | 0.2500 |  1.89% |
$0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 03/10/2025 | 0.0300 | 6.90% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 133.3% |
|
| AKN | 03/10/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 03/10/2025 | 0.1000 | 5.49% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 03/10/2025 | 0.6000 | 3.51% |
$0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 03/10/2025 | 3.6900 | 2.97% |
$4.01 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 27.4% |
|
| BOE | 03/10/2025 | 1.9900 |  – 3.38% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 10.6 | $2.343 | 17.7% |
| BSN | 03/10/2025 | 0.0600 | 7.02% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 03/10/2025 | 0.0200 | -16.67% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 03/10/2025 | 0.1100 | – 8.70% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 03/10/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 03/10/2025 | 0.1400 | -19.35% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 03/10/2025 | 2.0300 | 7.22% |
$2.11 | $0.75 | -402.0 | $1.930 | – 4.9% |
| EL8 | 03/10/2025 | 0.4600 | 20.00% |
$0.49 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 03/10/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 03/10/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 03/10/2025 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 03/10/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 03/10/2025 | 0.1300 | 23.81% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 03/10/2025 | 0.2300 | -15.38% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 03/10/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 03/10/2025 | 0.7300 | 0.00% | $0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 03/10/2025 | 0.2200 | 2.22% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 34.1% |
|
| MEU | 03/10/2025 | 0.0500 | – 7.27% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 03/10/2025 | 13.2300 | – 3.38% |
$14.00 | $6.44 | $12.925 | – 2.3% |
|
| ORP | 03/10/2025 | 0.0500 | 25.00% |
$0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 03/10/2025 | 8.5200 | 3.63% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | 65.1 | $8.671 | 1.8% |
| PEN | 03/10/2025 | 0.6500 | 19.64% |
$2.20 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 104.6% |
|
| SLX | 03/10/2025 | 6.9600 | 10.03% |
$7.30 | $2.28 | $6.500 | – 6.6% |
|
| TOE | 03/10/2025 | 0.3700 | 9.09% |
$0.43 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 03/10/2025 | 0.0200 | – 4.55% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
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