Risk Has Shifted To More Upside For MinRes

This story features MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The Chartist reports shares in Mineral Resources have seen their low, with risk now shifting to more upside.

By The Chartist

Bottom Line

15/10:
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Up
Monthly Trend: Up
Support levels: $26.00 (zone)
Resistance levels: $54.88 – $59.00

Calendar Events:
Report Date: February 2026     Ex-Div Date: N/A

Technical Discussion

Reasons to be cautiously optimistic:

• Lower interest rates, higher inflation and a weaker US dollar should be bullish for commodities.
• Many of the miners are trading at appealing valuations.
• History shows that iron ore tends to benefit from periods of weakness in the US dollar.
• Has exposure to lithium and iron ore.
• Is strategically positioned to benefit from a recovery in lithium markets.
• Has broken higher out of a consolidation phase.

Mineral Resources ((MIN)) was in consolidation mode during our last review, following a strong leg higher. Although nothing is guaranteed, price will often break in the direction of the prevailing trend. That has been the case here. It only took a few days for buyers to return, and they have been in control ever since.

It would be fair to say that the company has been helped by the better performance within the sector, yet that’s immaterial. We focus on the patterns, which have been portending higher prices since mid-July this year.

That’s when a reversal pattern triggered, although we’ll discuss that in more detail below. Suffice it to say, there has been a solid turnaround over the past 7 months or so.

It’s not to say we can ignore the -84% decline to the major low, but a good chunk of that retracement has now been clawed back. We expect that trait will continue over the coming weeks, which could easily morph into months. Indeed, from a pattern perspective, that is our highest expectation.

We moved down to the daily chart during our last review, as a head & shoulders pattern had triggered. The measured move (not shown) has been overcome by a substantial margin, yet that doesn’t detract from the H&S.

It’s relevant, as ideally it will be the pattern that locked in a major low. There is still work to do bigger picture, but we couldn’t have asked for anything more over the past few months.

Brokers are generally bullish and suggest it’s good value around current levels. Only one has indicated it’s likely to underperform. Needless to say, we don’t agree from a technical point of view.

There has been a solid rally, both in the company and the sector. There’s no indication that trait is going to change any time soon. As such, we believe the risk remains to the upside.

For the most part, it’s a good-looking chart from an Elliott Wave perspective. I am using semi-log, so it may look slightly different to yours at home if you are using a more conventional linear chart.

Either way, the patterns are the same. This chart highlights the trends going back several years, which is very important when using the Wave Theory.

The big positive is the multi-year trend up to the high of wave-[1] as shown. The retracement that followed was deep, surpassing the 78.6% projection by a large margin.

It’s not ideal, but the impulsive price action from the low of wave-[2] is getting the patterns back on track. If that characteristic continues, the current leg higher within wave-[3] has plenty of legs in it yet.

It should continue to form for many years and take price well above what’s shown on this chart. That’s looking much further down the track, so we don’t want to get too carried away.

Still, the picture continues to look rosy.

Trading Strategy

“…We are holding long positions, with our protective stop recently moved up to $32.50 to lock in more profit. Today I am going to tighten the stop up to $34.11. That is the low of the bar that filled the gap…”.

I’m not going to amend the protective stop at this stage, as we don’t want to be stopped out prematurely, only for the trend to continue higher without us.

That said, it has been a strong performer for us over the past three months, currently up more than 50%. If our analysis is correct, that number should increase substantially over the coming months.

Either way, we want to ride it for as long as we can.

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see the chart included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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