In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 24-10-25

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This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

AIC MINES LIMITED ((A1M)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis has upgaded AIC Mines to Buy from Hold after the miner’s 1Q update. The broker notes Eloise delivered 3.2kt Cu and 1.6koz Au at AISC $4.97/lb, generating $11.8m net mine cashflow and closing cash of $67.8m.

The broker rolls spot copper (US$4.80/lb) into the next-12-months deck and argues funding headroom looks adequate as the -$156m Eloise/Jericho expansion advances; its cash-balance chart shows a trough around $28.1m by Dec-26 before rebuilding post-capex.

Forecasts are raised (FY26 EPS up by 58%) and the valuation steps up to a $0.54 target (44c in the week prior). Forecasts have noticeably improved.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden believes Computershare is positioned for renewed growth despite a softer margin income outlook as global cash rates moderate. Margin income is expected to trough in FY27 before improving in later years.

A 48% increase in global deal activity and stronger US debt markets are supporting underlying earnings (EBIT ex-margin income).

Low gearing versus management’s target is seen as providing capacity for up to 20% earnings accretion if debt capacity is deployed.

Jarden highlights the stock’s de-rating since the FY25 result, with its PE multiple now around -18% below the 10-year average.

The broker raises its target price to $38.50 from $36.50, reflecting modest earnings revisions, and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral.

XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Xero’s earlier-than-expected completion of the Melio acquisition prompts Jarden to lower its FY26 earnings forecast by -10% due to timing and tax effects. The FY27 forecast and beyond remain unchanged.

Xero’s share price had fallen -20.3% by October 17, since the June 25 announcement of deal completion, wiping around -$6.3bn in market value, equivalent to 137% of Melio’s purchase cost, highlights the broker.

Nonetheless, the analyst expects long-term benefits from the acquisition.

Jarden raises its rating to Buy from Overweight and maintains a $196 target price.

Downgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Over FY22-25, Jarden points out a2 Milk Co has delivered a strong turnaround despite structural decline in the China infant milk formula (IMF) market.

The broker revises its earnings forecasts by 2% for FY26, -1% for FY27, and 4% for FY28, reflecting updated assumptions for the new product pipeline and supply chain transformation. 

Jarden attributes 77% of its valuation to existing products and supply chain improvements, with NZ$1.85 per share reflecting future innovation.

The broker lifts its target to NZ$7.85 from NZ$7.80 and downgrades to Underweight from Neutral, viewing current valuation as fully pricing in foreseeable growth.

EROAD LIMITED ((ERD)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Eroad is set to benefit from the New Zealand’ government’s transition to a GPS-based electronic road user charge (eRUC) system, with the company well positioned to service the light vehicle fleet, according to Jarden.

The broker estimates the eRUC opportunity could generate about NZ$138m in annual revenue, though the final framework will depend on legislation expected in 2026.

Jarden incorporates the eRUC upside into its valuation, lifting its target price to NZ$2.30 from NZ$1.20, including NZ$0.91 of value from the eRUC potential.

Given the recent share price re-rating since the government announcement, Jarden downgrades Eroad to Underweight from Neutral.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $5.05 

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis sticks with its Hold rating for Aspen Group while its price target for the shares has improved to $5.22 from $4.43.

Aspen has lifted FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS guidance to 20.1c from 19.0c alongside an upbeat 1Q26 update including 5.3c underlying pre-tax EPS (+21% y/y), a strong Darwin Freespirit peak season (NRI +22% y/y), and 30 development settlements with 112 contracts in hand.

The broker highlights two acquisitions: a 300-site Wallaroo, SA project (a pivot toward build-to-rent townhouses plus land-lease homes) and a Surry Hills office to partly serve as HQ.

Balance-sheet headroom is ample (Moelis expects gearing at circa 18% by Dec-26), supporting pipeline expansion and a higher valuation, hence the higher price target.

Forecasts have slightly moved higher.

This report was published on October 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.22 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.17
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $3.00 

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

Beacon Lighting reported softer first quarter trading, observes Jarden, with AGM commentary indicating slower store sales momentum from late August through September.

The broker attributes the weakness in retail to a subdued housing market, Reserve Bank of Australia policy uncertainty, and customers delaying purchases ahead of promotional periods. Positively, trade sales continue to grow.

The analyst expects a cyclical housing recovery from FY27, positioning Beacon well to benefit from improved demand and operating leverage when the cycle turns.

The broker lowers its target price to $3.40 from $3.60 on reduced earnings forecasts and retains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on October 15, 2025.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.4
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 27.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $10.46 

Petra Capital rates ((DDR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes TD Synnex’s record 3Q25 performance —highlighting Asia-Pacific & Japan up ~20% y/y and a 68bp gross-margin lift— supports a constructive 2H25 outlook for ASX-listed Dicker Data.

Among the positives noted: software and a PC refresh cycle rather than AI, plus firmer SMB/MSP demand (though the A&NZ read-through is unclear).

The broker models gross revenue growth of 8.4% in 2H25 and 11.9% in 2025, underpinned by Dicker Data’s strong A&NZ position and leverage to an SMB rebound.

The price target has lifted to $11.85.

This report was published on October 15, 2025.

Target price is $11.85 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $1.39
If DDR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting downside of -4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 57.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.1, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELV    ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $4.48 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ELV)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes lithium markets had a strong September quarter thanks to y/y EV sales growth, lift in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) demand forecasts, and supply disruptions in China.

The broker’s lithium stocks collectively rose, in line with the increase in lithium pricing and general positive macroeconomic factors.

Minor revisions made to lithium product prices

At the September quarterly, the broker expects Elevra Lithium to report -8% decline in q/q production at 54kt SC5.2, with costs to benefit from operational improvements and optimisation.

Buy. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.00 on revised prices and valuation roll-forward.

This report was published on October 13, 2025.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $5.02
If ELV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1148.72.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6400.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.81 

Moelis rates ((GEM)) as Hold (3) –

Relevant to the G8 Education business, Moelis highlights Australia’s fertility rate continues to decline, falling to 1.48 births per woman in 2025 from 1.50 in 2023. More positively, total births rose 1.9% to 292,318, the first increase since 2021.

Immigration remains elevated, with a net gain of 445,640 people in FY24, largely younger cohorts, which supports childcare demand despite slower natural growth.

Long day care supply grew 3.5% year-on-year to 9,465 centres, while improving real wages (+1.3% in June 2025) may help offset cost-of-living pressures.

G8 Education is expected to benefit from gradually improving enquiry, enrolment, and occupancy trends.

Target 92c. Hold.

This report was published on October 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.115
If GEM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO    NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.63 

Moelis rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

Relevant to the Nido Education business, Moelis highlights Australia’s fertility rate continues to decline, falling to 1.48 births per woman in 2025 from 1.50 in 2023. More positively, total births rose 1.9% to 292,318, the first increase since 2021.

Immigration remains elevated, with a net gain of 445,640 people in FY24, largely younger cohorts, which supports childcare demand despite slower natural growth.

Long day care supply grew 3.5% year-on-year to 9,465 centres, while improving real wages (+1.3% in June 2025) may help offset cost-of-living pressures.

Nido Education is expected to benefit from gradually improving enquiry, enrolment, and occupancy trends.

Target $1.03. Buy.

This report was published on October 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.4
If NDO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.84.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $8.84 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Paladin Energy delivered another strong quarter report in 1Q26, with production up 7% q/q to 1.07Mlbs, in line with expectations, and costs beating guidance at US$41.6/lb.

Sales volumes fell -25% q/q due to a shipment delay, which has since been completed, while the average realised price rose 21% to US$67.4/lb.

The broker notes operations at Langer Heinrich are now materially de-risked, with stable recoveries and solid grades.

The company ended the quarter with US$320m total liquidity and an estimated US$190m net cash position (ex-CNOL loan). Ramp-up remains on track, with full mining and processing plant operations targeted for FY27.

Minor changes to forecasts. Buy. Target unchanged at $12.50.

This report was published on October 15, 2025.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $8.84 Difference: $3.66
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 257.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 74.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of 399.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.06 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RIC)) as Buy (1) –

Ridley Corp’s outlook remains positive, Canaccord Genuity believes, supported by steady demand growth, ongoing reinvestment, and selective premiumisation. Potential for a significant earnings uplift in IPF Distribution and fertiliser operations is also noted..

The broker expects management’s next three-year plan (FY26-28) to focus on expanding capacity, adding extrusion assets, and increasing export exposure.

Seperately, IPF Distribution is likely to follow the Bulk Stockfeeds model by cutting costs and optimising assets.

Canaccord maintains its $3.48 target price and keeps a Buy rating.

This report was published on October 16, 2025.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.42
If RIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $6.32 

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Underweight (4) –

Santos’ September quarter production and revenue missed consensus forecasts by -4% and -5%, respectively, prompting Jarden to trim its target price to $6.10 from $6.25.

Software issues on the Barossa floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel delayed commissioning by several weeks, notes the analyst, though first LNG sales are still expected before end-2025.

Flooding in the Cooper Basin and the Barossa delay led management to cut 2025 production guidance to 89-91mmboe from 90-95mmboe.

Jarden remains cautious, assuming only two LNG cargoes produced and one sold in 2025. The Underweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on October 17, 2025.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.32 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 20.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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