Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Last week's extreme volatility in financial assets equally visited the uranium sector.
- Demand forecasts upgraded for nuclear energy
- Inflation, among other issues, has held back new supply projects
- U308 weekly spot market hit by global risk-off
By Danielle Ecuyer
Demand outlook grows, while supply questions remain
Canaccord Genuity states, “For the first time since the early 2000s, we are seeing a genuine step-change in demand that is catered towards nuclear, and in a unique instance, both public and private investment are now strongly supportive”.
For all the near-term volatility in uranium stocks and the U308 spot price, the underlying demand and supply drivers of the market have shifted dramatically since both investors and governments acknowledged AI was driving a systemic and sizeable shift in future energy demand dynamics.
Overlayed with the transition to more zero emission energy, nuclear power is experiencing a genuine renaissance.
This week both UBS and Canaccord discussed a more bullish price outlook for U308 as supply side challenges continued against rising demand.
China has almost tripled its nuclear capacity in the last decade and is aiming to add a further 150 nuclear reactors over the next fifteen years.
President Trump’s administration equally acknowledged the need to speed up nuclear energy generation and, via Executive Orders, announced an US$80bn partnership between Westinghouse and the US government.
France is implementing a Nuclear Acceleration Act. Numerous countries are reversing plans to phase out or retire nuclear energy plants.
The UK government is financing Sizewell C, France is building six EPR2s (next-generation European Pressurised Reactor 2 units) and countries like South Korea are seeking to accelerate their nuclear plans.
UBS re-iterates forecast growth in nuclear reactor demand of 3%, which is above the 2020-25 average of 2% growth annually.
Canaccord lifts 2035 compound average growth in demand to 4% with projected 2035 nuclear capacity of 571GW. This equals 289mlbs of annual U308 demand against 187mlbs in 2025, including secondary demand.
The latter rightfully ponders where over 100mlb/yr of incremental supply will come from in just one decade.
Supply constraints and rising demand boost long term U308 forecasts
Both brokers concur recent headwinds for the industry at large have all reinforced the view that supply remains challenged and multiple factors are not making it easier to procure.
Headwinds range from ongoing mining sector inflation in key countries such as Canada, and stalled project plans from the likes of Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) Tumas, on top of problems with restarts like Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) Honeymoon, as well as additional cost imposts for the likes of Lotus Resources ((LOT)).
UBS consequently lifts its long term U308 price to over US$100/lb from US$77/lb and raises short term U308 price forecasts by as much as 25%, averaging US$95/lb over 2026/27/28.
Canaccord also raises its long term U308 price forecast to US$110/lb, up 22% from 2030, and envisages a structural deficit of -15mlb in 2026, -13mlb in 2027 and -23mlb in 2028.
At the end of January, industry consultants confirmed another US$2/lb rise in the base term price to US$90/lb from US$88/lb.
The broker believes the rising term price, which has advanced US$2/lb in four of the last five months versus a flat trading range in the prior fifteen months, indicates rising demand from government led stimulus and growing energy needs.
Higher target prices on higher U308 price assumptions
The Canaccord analyst has accordingly raised target prices on average by 16% across the universe of stocks covered with the main factor being the upgrade in the long-term forecast to US$110/lb.
In terms of the Australian coverage, Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) retains a Speculative Buy rating with a lift in target to $5.99 from $4.95.
Boss is Speculative Buy rated with a $2.80 target, up from $2.30. Deep Yellow also is a Speculative Buy with a higher target of $3.01 from $2.48.
Paladin Energy is Buy rated with a $15.95 target, up from $13.60 previously. Both Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) and Silex Systems ((SLX)) are Speculative Buy rated. Peninsula’s target is raised to $1.53 from $1.29 and Silex to $10.48 from $9.42.
Paladin remains the preferred stock in Australia with NexGen Energy ((NXG)) a pick for exploration in North America; Speculative Buy rated with a CA$24 target from CA$18.50.
UBS also upgraded target prices with Cameco up 9% to CA$152, Paladin up 36% to $12.25 and Boss up 23% to $1.60, all with Neutral ratings, with Paladin downgraded from Buy.
With some of the equity prices already more than two times 2025 price lows, for the UBS analyst “shares have gone too far, too fast”.
In other corporate updates, Lotus Resources ((LOT)) announced a $81m equity raising with a $76m institutional share placement and a $5m share purchase plan for additional capital to fund the ongoing ramp up of the Kayelekera project.
Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises its target to $3 from $3.70 while Ord Minnett lowers its target to $3.90 from $4 with an unchanged Speculative Buy rating.
Spot market and shares prices ensnared by asset price volatility
After such an upbeat U308 price move in the week prior, with industry consultant TradeTech reporting a move back above US$100/lb, the market came back to earth with a thud in the latter part of last week.
TradeTech’s weekly U308 spot price fell -US$14/lb to US$86/lb from January 30, on the back of fififteen transactions and a total of 1.35mlbs of U308 exchanged.
Last Monday saw a transaction at US$96/lb with a low of US$82/lb last Friday morning, with buyers stepping in to buy 100klbs at US$86/lb before the weekly price cut off. A further 50klb transaction at US$87/lb was not reported until after the price cut off.
The decline in the U308 spot price also transposed to extreme volatility in share prices with Deep Yellow, Paladin, Boss, Bannerman and Silex shares all falling between -12% and -7.5% last Friday on the ASX, populating the day’s Top 20 percentage losers on the ASX300.
TradeTech notes the price swings in the U308 spot market are becoming more compressed and are cycling through the price swings faster than in previous cycles.
Zooming out, the consultant notes the U308 spot price has risen 4.9% since the start of 2026, and is up 24.4% on a year ago, and 384.5% above the post Fukushima low in December 2016.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator came in at US$93/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$90/lb with no transactions or new demand in the term U308 market.
Kazatomprom also announced its trading update for 4Q2025 with production of 18.5mlbs, up 10% on the prior quarter and up 9% y/y.
Annual output for 2025 came in at 67.2mlbs, up 11% on 2024 with an average realised price of US$64.18/lb for 4Q2025, down -5% on the prior quarter and down -12% on the previous year.
Latest short interest positions on the ASX:
Short interest in Boss Energy rose 0.65% pts to 17.02% while Paladin Energy slipped -0.63% pts to 9.99%.
Short interest in Lotus Resources rose 0.01% pts to 7.34% and Penninsula Energy’s up 0.92% pts to 1.67%.
Silex sits at 8.98% short interest, up from 8.22% a week earlier.
For more reading on nuclear energy and U308 at FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/27/uranium-week-no-shortage-of-bullish-sentiment/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/20/uranium-week-2026-off-to-the-races/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/20/uranium-week-2026-off-to-the-races/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/16/uranium-week-sprott-buying-asx-upgrades/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 06/02/2026 | 0.1000 |  -18.18% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 06/02/2026 | 0.1700 | -29.17% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 06/02/2026 | 0.0400 | -20.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  75.0% | |
| AKN | 06/02/2026 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 06/02/2026 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 06/02/2026 | 0.5200 | -12.28% | $0.70 | $0.36 | |||
| BMN | 06/02/2026 | 3.8000 | -17.22% | $4.96 | $1.76 | $5.275 | 38.8% | |
| BOE | 06/02/2026 | 1.5600 | -20.11% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 9.0 | $1.771 | 13.6% |
| BSN | 06/02/2026 | 0.0500 | -20.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 06/02/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 06/02/2026 | 0.2100 | – 8.70% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 66.7% | |
| CXU | 06/02/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 06/02/2026 | 0.2100 | – 9.09% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 06/02/2026 | 2.3800 | -15.71% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -61.0 | $2.200 | – 7.6% |
| EL8 | 06/02/2026 | 0.3500 | -20.93% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 06/02/2026 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 06/02/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 06/02/2026 | 0.1300 | – 7.69% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 06/02/2026 | 0.2000 | – 7.41% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 06/02/2026 | 0.0400 | -20.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 06/02/2026 | 0.8500 | 0.00% | $0.93 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 06/02/2026 | 2.2500 | -22.39% | $3.20 | $1.56 | $3.607 | 60.3% | |
| MEU | 06/02/2026 | 0.1600 | 7.14% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 06/02/2026 | 15.6900 | -12.16% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -148.6 | $18.500 | 17.9% |
| ORP | 06/02/2026 | 0.0700 | -14.29% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 06/02/2026 | 11.4600 | -16.02% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 92.9 | $11.929 | 4.1% |
| PEN | 06/02/2026 | 0.6700 | -23.81% | $1.17 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 98.5% | |
| SLX | 06/02/2026 | 6.6600 | – 6.32% | $10.85 | $2.28 | -80.4 | $11.200 | 68.2% |
| TOE | 06/02/2026 | 0.4800 | -16.07% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 06/02/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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