Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
As volatility eased the U308 spot priced moved higher while Deep Yellow's capital raising exceeded expectations and it remains an "opportunistic buyer"
- Paladin Energy completes stockpile processing phase, focus shifts to mining
- Bannerman’s CNNC partnership a major de-risking event
- Yellow Cake raises US$110m post strong investor interest
By Danielle Ecuyer
Paladin Energy’s results largely as expected
Investors drew breath after the previous week’s financial market volatility had leaked into the spot uranium market.
Last week saw Paladin Energy ((PDN)) report 1H26 earnings, which saw revenue advance 79% to US$138m, meeting analysts’ expectations.
As Paladin completed the stockpile processing phase, expectations are for the U308 producer to rely more on mined ore, which is a positive for improved transparency on mill performance, grade and production, according to the Bell Potter analyst.
US$30m in earnings (EBITDA) was well above Morgan Stanley’s forecasts (as well as consensus) due to inventory movements, while capex of -US$25m was higher than anticipated by 9.3%, arising from Langer Heinrich mine stripping and the Patterson Lake South feed study.
Management reiterated FY26 guidance, with the ramp up of Langer Heinrich in line and Patterson Lake also moving through technical studies and drilling.
Bell Potter forecasts FY26 production of 4.75Mlbs, which is above the upper end of guidance, believing there is scope for upgrades as the transition to mined ore gathers momentum and milled grades are expected to rise from 501ppm.
The analyst retains a Buy rating and $15.30 target, noting Paladin is rebuilding its reputation as production at Langer Heinrich improves. Equally, the market has attached little value to the potential for Patterson Lake. With around 53% exposure to spot U308 prices, Paladin is well positioned to benefit from rising prices.
Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a $14.45 target price.
Ord Minnett has a different take on Paladin and confirms much of the result was previewed by the December quarter production report. This analyst confirms progress has been robust at the Langer Heinrich mine and is expected to achieve annualised nameplate production of 6mlbs in six months.
Due to the current valuation ascribed to the stock, Ord Minnett retains a Sell rating with a $9.75 target price, believing the growth profile, including the possible addition of around 10-11mlbs from Patterson Lake South in the future, is attractive but priced in.
In other corporate news, Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) announced China National Nuclear Corporation will acquire a 45% stake in the Etango Uranium project and pay upfront cash of US$294.5m into a newly formed joint venture, as well as a US$27m payment to compensate for costs.
The transaction includes an offtake agreement with CNNC taking 60% of Etango output. The deal is very bullish for the uranium market, Shaw and Partners suggests, and Western utilities are likely to be dismayed by it.
Shaw would have preferred to see Bannerman retain its 95% interest in the project and fund project construction with equity. However, equity markets remain slow to recognise the huge upside ahead in uranium equities.
Shaw retains a Buy rating and is now reviewing its $4.70 target.
Cameco releases 2025 results
Canada’s Cameco generated annual revenue of CA$3.48bn, up around 11% y/y, and full year adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of CA$1.93bn, up around 26%.
Cameco’s uranium production totalled 6.0m lbs U3O8 for 4Q25 and 21.0m lbs for the full year. Cigar Lake produced 19.1m lbs (100% basis), exceeding Cameco’s annual expectations by 1.1m lbs U3O8.
The McArthur River/Key Lake operation produced 15.1m lbs (100% basis), meeting the company’s revised annual production guidance.
Total production from JV Inkai in Kazakhstan was 8.4m lbs U3O8 (Cameco’s share: 3.7m lbs) compared to 7.8m lbs U3O8 (Cameco’s share: 3.6m lbs) in 2024. In addition to its production, Cameco purchased a total of 9.6m lbs of uranium (including JV Inkai purchases) in 2025.
Cameco has approximately 230mlbs U308 committed under long term contracts and expects to deliver around 28mlbs per annum on average over the next five years.
For 2026, production guidance is 19.5mlbs–21.5mlbs U308, with uranium deliveries estimated at 29mlbs–32mlbs.
Yellow Cake’s fund raising exceeds expectations
The spot U308 market saw a weekly price rise of US$2.50 to US$88.50/lb, report industry consultants TradeTech, which represents a rise of 7.9% for calendar 2026 year to date and up 33.4% on the same time last year.
Twelve transactions were conducted. TradeTech highlighted last week’s transactions reflected prevailing sentiment, with sellers offering material at Cameco at, or near, today’s transacted levels. Buyers appear more focused on securing US-delivered pounds, with ConverDyn deliveries clearing at higher prices.
The TradeTech Mid-Term U308 price stands at US$93/lb and the Long-term U308 price indicator at US$90/lb.
Listed uranium investment vehicle Yellow Cake announced it was exercising its option to acquire U308 under an existing agreement with Kazatomprom post raising US$110m in its latest equity offering, above the original target of US$75m.
Some 1.2mlbs of U308 is expected to be acquired which would meet Yellow Cake’s purchase option for 2026 at US$86.15/lb.
Yellow Cake announced funds raise will be used to make “opportunistic and strategic on-market purchases of further uranium”.
Short positions over the week
Boss Energy is the one number shorted stock on the ASX with a rise to 17.13% from 17.02%, while Paladin Energy sits in thirteenth position at 9.43%, down -0.56% and Silex Systems ((SLX)) in eighteenth position up to 9.07% from 8.98%.
More reading on uranium from FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/27/uranium-week-no-shortage-of-bullish-sentiment/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/23/uranium-week-boss-is-the-honeymoon-over/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/23/uranium-week-boss-is-the-honeymoon-over/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 13/02/2026 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 13/02/2026 | 0.1500 |  -12.50% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 13/02/2026 | 0.0500 |  25.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 40.0% | |
| AKN | 13/02/2026 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 13/02/2026 | 0.0500 | 20.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 13/02/2026 | 0.5200 | 4.17% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 13/02/2026 | 3.8400 | – 2.11% | $4.96 | $1.76 | $5.275 | 37.4% | |
| BOE | 13/02/2026 | 1.6400 | 3.82% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 9.5 | $1.771 | 8.0% |
| BSN | 13/02/2026 | 0.0400 | -20.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 13/02/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 13/02/2026 | 0.2000 | – 4.76% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 75.0% | |
| CXU | 13/02/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 13/02/2026 | 0.2200 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 13/02/2026 | 2.4000 | 1.68% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -92.3 | $2.290 | – 4.6% |
| EL8 | 13/02/2026 | 0.3600 | 0.00% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 13/02/2026 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 13/02/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 13/02/2026 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 13/02/2026 | 0.1500 | -26.32% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 13/02/2026 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 13/02/2026 | 0.8500 | 0.00% | $0.93 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 13/02/2026 | 1.9600 | -14.35% | $3.20 | $1.56 | $3.607 | 84.0% | |
| MEU | 13/02/2026 | 0.1500 | -12.50% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 13/02/2026 | 16.2000 | 1.39% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -154.5 | $18.500 | 14.2% |
| ORP | 13/02/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 13/02/2026 | 11.8000 | 1.57% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 101.5 | $11.929 | 1.1% |
| PEN | 13/02/2026 | 0.6700 | 1.47% | $1.08 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 98.5% | |
| SLX | 13/02/2026 | 6.6700 | – 0.45% | $10.85 | $2.28 | -83.1 | $11.200 | 67.9% |
| TOE | 13/02/2026 | 0.4800 | 0.00% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 13/02/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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