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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Amidst the ongoing geopolitical and energy uncertainty, U308 buyers are focused on the term market for securing price and supply certainty.
- A combination of an Easter holiday and on again/off again cease fire narratives kept the U3O8 spot market quiet for two weeks
- U308 spot price managed to advance on thin volumes
- Activity in the U308 term market evident
- Latest updates on Lotus Resources and Boss Energy
By Danielle Ecuyer
Spot market activity remains subdued as spot price rises
There is nothing like uncertainty and concerns over rising energy prices to quell activity in a market, compounded by an Easter Friday public holiday.
According to industry consultants at TradeTech, activity in the U308 spot market has been sluggish since the March 31 month end, with five transactions recorded in the four days until Easter Friday for 300klbs.
The U308 spot price rose US$1.25/lb to US$84.50/lb.
Over that period, the U308 spot price traded as high as US$85/lb for delivery in April at ConverDyn in Illinois, with another transaction as low as US$83.85/lb in April for delivery at Cameco in Canada.
Post Easter, activity has remained “subdued”, with only two spot transactions reported last week, despite equity markets rallying sharply on the Iran/US ceasefire proposition, although the two are not directly correlated.
The TradeTech spot price advanced US$1/lb to US$85.50/lb, with one transaction concluded on the Monday for 100klbs at US$85/lb for delivery in April at ConverDyn’s US facility.
On Tuesday, ongoing US headlines and uncertainty on the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz created a mismatch between U308 spot market sellers and buyers, with activity stalling, TradeTech reports, until Wednesday.
One buyer secured 50klbs at US$85.50/lb. The market remained quiet for the balance of the week.
After reaching a high of US$101.40/lb on January 29, the U3O8 spot price has retreated by -15.8% to date in 2026.
The TradeTech Mid-term price stands at US$88/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$93/lb.
Market participants want certainty over uncertainty
In contrast to the becalmed spot market, the industry consultants point to two transactions, with buyers calling for delivery in December, concluded with one transaction of 135klbs of U308 and another for 100klbs, both at prices above US$86/lb.
With ongoing volatility expected in the U308 spot market, increasingly buyers are seeking to secure supply with more predictable pricing.
TradeTech highlights buyers are requesting offers with 100% fixed or base-escalated pricing terms, and sellers are showing a tendency not to extend long-term offers that do not have a “heavy market-related pricing component”.
Notably, sellers willing to offer fixed pricing terms have been successful in achieving term contracts in the mid-US$90’s/lb or higher.
Latest broker updates and short positions
In company news, Canaccord Genuity pointed to a fire in the drying and packaging area of the Kayelekera uranium mine, which has resulted in Lotus Resources ((LOT)) pausing processing for around three weeks.
Mining activity is expected to continue over the period, and management is noted for seeking out alternative solutions before the delivery of new electrical panels. Production is anticipated to remain around 200klbs/month over 2Q26.
Lotus also announced “global supply issues continue to materially impact the prices of key reagents and diesel for additional contracts”.
Canaccord has adjusted earnings forecasts for higher operating costs over the near term, offset by grid connection, which removes the use of diesel generators and future production from the on-site acid plant.
The cost estimate for 2026 is now US$55/lb, higher than previously forecast.
Lotus is noted for having four off-take agreements and a forward contract for 3.8mlbs of U308 sales, of which 3.5mlbs has fixed, base-escalated pricing.
For 2026, the producer has 1.0mlb of contracted deliveries, with 0.9mlbs for 2H2026. The targeted production run rate of 0.2Mlbs/month during the June quarter is considered “achievable”, but not without risks given the latest announcement.
Canaccord lowers its 2H26 production forecast to 356klbs from 535klbs and increases short-term all-in-sustaining-cost estimates to US$67.2/lb from US$54.2/lb, with the adjusted risk for the Kayelekera mine moving to 80% from 90%.
Target price is lowered to $3.10 from $3.90, with no change in Speculative Buy rating.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target on Lotus of $3.45, with two Speculative Buy ratings and one Outperform rating.
Short interest on the stock also rose as of April 7, according to the latest ASIC data, to 10.28%, up 0.51%. Lotus is the eleventh most shorted stock on the ASX.
Citi shone a light on Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) June quarter scoping study at Honeymoon as the next “key catalyst” for the stock.
The analyst highlights the initial takeaways infer the geology may enable the proposed wider wellfield design, with the company’s ongoing drilling needing to confirm the resource to proceed with the revised feasibility study.
Regarding its energy exposure, Boss has lower diesel exposure due to its in-situ recovery, obviating the need for more energy-intensive transportation at Honeymoon, with power instead used for drilling.
Citi estimates diesel usage is around -60% to -80% less than conventional mining operations per pound of U308 produced.
Current FY26 production guidance of around 1.6mlbs is viewed as conservative, but the outcome from the feasibility study remains essential for the medium-term cost and production outlook.
Target price is lifted to $1.60 from $1.25, with an unchanged Neutral rating. The share price is viewed as discounting the uncertainty risk.
Boss Energy is the sixth most shorted stock on the ASX as of April 7 at 12.12%, up 0.15% from the prior week.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target on Boss of $1.658, with two Buy-equivalent ratings, two Hold-equivalent, and two Sell-equivalent ratings.
Paladin Energy’s ((PDN)) short interest remained almost unchanged at 8.72% and is positioned last in the top 20 of short interests, with Peninsula Energy’s ((PEN)) short interest rising to 1.88% from 0.64%, up 1.24%.
Lastly, a fresh update on the uranium sector by UBS has expressed even more confidence in the global renaissance of nuclear energy with UBS upgrading its already bullish demand projections by an additional 2% per annum from 2030 onwards.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 10/04/2026 | 0.0700 |  28.85% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| AEE | 10/04/2026 | 0.1300 | 4.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 10/04/2026 | 0.0400 | 7.69% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 10/04/2026 | 0.0200 | 12.50% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 10/04/2026 | 0.0500 | 2.22% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 10/04/2026 | 0.4100 |  – 3.33% | $0.70 | $0.39 | |||
| BMN | 10/04/2026 | 3.6900 | 3.47% | $5.25 | $1.76 | $5.550 | 50.4% | |
| BOE | 10/04/2026 | 1.5800 | 6.67% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 14.8 | $1.658 | 5.0% |
| BSN | 10/04/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 10/04/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 10/04/2026 | 0.2900 | 15.69% | $0.36 | $0.07 | $0.350 | 20.7% | |
| CXU | 10/04/2026 | 0.0600 | 44.19% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 10/04/2026 | 0.2200 | 22.86% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 10/04/2026 | 1.7800 | 4.19% | $2.97 | $0.83 | -65.4 | $2.290 | 28.7% |
| EL8 | 10/04/2026 | 0.2600 | 0.00% | $0.50 | $0.20 | |||
| HAR | 10/04/2026 | 0.1100 | 1.82% | $0.25 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 10/04/2026 | 0.1300 | 3.85% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 10/04/2026 | 0.0400 | 5.26% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 10/04/2026 | 0.8000 | 15.94% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 10/04/2026 | 1.3800 | 7.72% | $3.20 | $1.15 | $3.450 | 150.0% | |
| MEU | 10/04/2026 | 0.1100 | 9.52% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 10/04/2026 | 15.8900 | – 0.18% | $20.47 | $7.03 | -13300.0 | $20.150 | 26.8% |
| ORP | 10/04/2026 | 0.0600 | – 5.08% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 10/04/2026 | 12.5200 | 10.63% | $14.44 | $3.98 | 140.6 | $13.067 | 4.4% |
| PEN | 10/04/2026 | 0.5500 | – 2.61% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 10/04/2026 | 5.5400 | 10.44% | $10.85 | $2.28 | |||
| TOE | 10/04/2026 | 0.5200 | – 9.57% | $0.63 | $0.16 | |||
| WCN | 10/04/2026 | 0.0100 | 7.14% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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