Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 01-05-26

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((ASX))
            [1] => ((BBN))
            [2] => ((JBH))
            [3] => ((JDO))
            [4] => ((RRL))
            [5] => ((SCG))
            [6] => ((SMR))
            [7] => ((TWE))
            [8] => ((WOW))
            [9] => ((29M))
            [10] => ((ALX))
            [11] => ((FMG))
            [12] => ((GNC))
            [13] => ((ING))
            [14] => ((NST))
            [15] => ((PLS))
            [16] => ((SUN))
            [17] => ((TNE))
            [18] => ((WOW))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => ASX
            [1] => BBN
            [2] => JBH
            [3] => JDO
            [4] => RRL
            [5] => SCG
            [6] => SMR
            [7] => TWE
            [8] => WOW
            [9] => 29M
            [10] => ALX
            [11] => FMG
            [12] => GNC
            [13] => ING
            [14] => NST
            [15] => PLS
            [16] => SUN
            [17] => TNE
            [18] => WOW
        )

)

This story features ASX LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASX
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 27 to Friday May 1, 2026
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.47%; Hold 26.80%; Sell 6.73%

For the week ending Friday, May 1, 2026, FNArena recorded nine upgrades and ten downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

Falls in average target prices and average earnings forecasts materially outweigh rises in the tables below, as was the case in the week prior.

Life360 heads up the ranking for positive change to earnings forecasts after Macquarie initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, viewing the company as early in its growth trajectory with multiple upside levers.

The broker highlighted strong monthly active user growth and potential for increased conversion to paid subscriptions, supported by initiatives such as Pet GPS bundling.

Advertising is also seen as an under-appreciated growth option, with potential to drive operating leverage.

Macquarie set a $32.20 target, arguing the valuation undervalued long-term growth and advertising optionality. It’s also felt the company’s competitive position is underpinned by network effects, proprietary data, and brand trust.

The world’s largest gold miner by volume Newmont Corp is next on the earnings table after March quarter results revealed significant ‘beats’ across all metrics. 

As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/28/march-quarter-gold-medal-for-newmont/ the gold miner has re-purchased US$2.4bn of its own shares since its last earnings call in February, fully exhausting the original US$6bn share repurchase authorisation.

The board has now approved a further US$6bn for share repurchases.

Commentary on Newmont’s results is also provided via FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/01/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-01-05-2026/

Lithium exposure PLS Group follows with an 11% rise in average earnings forecasts after a strong March quarter, with Citi commenting production and costs beat consensus forecasts, supported by solid cash generation.

The group generated record production, well ahead of Morgans’ forecast, driven by improved plant reliability, high utilisation and strong recoveries.

The latter broker downgraded its rating to Trim from Hold, on valuation.

Outperform-rated Macquarie observed early signs of acceleration in the P2000 project, a major expansion at the company’s Pilgangoora operation, with potential pre-financial investment decision spending flagged for FY27.

A deep dive into why short positioning continues for PLS Group: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/30/why-is-pls-still-heavily-shorted/

PLS Group and fellow lithium miners Liontown and Mineral Resources (iron ore and lithium) also feature with average targets rising by 7%, 3%, and 3%, respectively.

Commentary on Liontown’s smaller-than-expected first-half FY26 loss can be read in the Results Monitor (see above).

Leading the week’s positive changes to average targets are gold developer Minerals 260 and technology-with-gold-exposure Codan, which designs and manufactures communications and metal detection equipment, with respective increases of 11% and 10%.

Bell Potter highlighted a positive March quarter for Minerals 260, marked by key de-risking developments including a $220m funding agreement with Canadian-listed Franco-Nevada and a strong $250m net cash position.

Drilling at the Bullabulling Gold Project continued to deliver wide, high-grade results, supporting further resource growth.

The preliminary feasibility study and maiden Ore Reserve remain on track for July 2026, with a resource update expected in August, while development activities are accelerating towards first production by end-2028.

Bell Potter retained a Speculative Buy rating and lifted its target to $1.35 from $0.90.

Codan delivered a strong trading update, in Macquarie’s view, increasing confidence the top end of FY26 revenue guidance would be attained. Ongoing geopolitical tensions were also highlighted as supportive of defence spending, positioning the company to benefit.

The update exceeded UBS’ expectations, with strong earnings and net profit growth driven by above-trend Communications revenue and demand for software-defined radios linked to unmanned systems, alongside margin expansion.

The material earnings ‘beat’ was supported by strong performance from the Metal Detection division, consisting mainly of the Minelab business, amid favourable gold prices and production trends, Bell Potter explained.

Turning to negative change in average price targets last week, the most material moves were for 29Metals, Accent Group, and Westgold Resources.

Base metals mining company 29Metals, whose primary commodity is copper, outperformed Macquarie’s estimates, although by-products fell short of forecasts.

Guidance for 2026 production has been downgraded for zinc, gold and silver, reflecting ongoing geotechnical issues at Xantho, an underground mining area within the Golden Grove operation, with further works planned to mitigate future production disruptions.

Following an earlier equity raising, the balance sheet held net cash of $48m at quarter-end, though the broker expects ongoing cash outflows through the remainder of 2026 given lower guidance.

Macquarie’s target price was halved to 25c and its rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Bell Potter noted increased competition in lifestyle footwear, to which Australian footwear and apparel retailer and distributor Accent Group has around 60% exposure, amid pressure from higher interest rates and global macroeconomic uncertainty.

The broker maintained a Hold rating for Accent, citing a total expected return of less than 15% at its updated 65c target price, down from $1.10.

Alongside negative earnings revisions, the target P/E multiple is reduced to around 10x from 13x for FY26-27, reflecting lower near-term earnings visibility relative to peers.

Reducing its target by -20 cents to $1.10, Morgans similarly pointed to a weak consumer backdrop, with sentiment near record lows amid rate rises, cost-of-living pressures and higher fuel prices, delaying an earnings recovery.

Westgold Resources reported a March quarter result slightly below Ord Minnett’s expectations, largely due to a significant working capital unwind, with gold sales materially lagging production.

The company produced 93,100oz of gold in the March quarter, beating Macquarie’s estimates. Guidance has been reiterated for 345,000oz-385,000oz with year-to-date production representing 79% at the midpoint.

Costs (AISC) of $3338/oz were higher than expected by the broker, although management indicated diesel prices had no material impact on the cost performance.

Macquarie decreased its estimate for FY26 EPS by -25% because of the higher costs and lowered its target to $9.00 from $9.50.

While Ord Minnett also lowered its target for Westgold by -$1.00 to $8.50, all three brokers covering this stock maintained a Buy or equivalent rating.

Both 29Metals and Westgold also appear on the week’s ranking for negative change to average FY26 earnings forecast in first and sixth place, respectively.

In between sit gold exposures Bellevue Gold and Perseus Mining, alongside coal producer Coronado Global Resources, and lithium and nickel miner IGO Ltd.

While Bellevue’s 3Q26 update triggered in a 20% rally in the share price, UBS lowered its FY26 EPS forecast by -46% due to hedging costs.

In contrast, this broker’s FY27 EPS estimate was increased by 19% as de-hedging and deleveraging continue to progress, while higher grades from emerging zones are expected to support lower costs.

Management retained guidance of between 130,000oz-150,000oz for FY26.

In a catch-up to Perseus Mining’s 23 April release, Macquarie noted 3Q production was in line with consensus, while gold sales were weaker than expected due to timing impacts, weighing on cash generation.

Costs (AISC) came in slightly above expectations, though guidance was maintained despite ongoing fuel cost pressures.

The broker also highlighted completion of the Meyas Sand divestment, strengthening the balance sheet and enhancing financial flexibility.

UBS and Bell Potter highlighted a difficult March quarter for Coronado, with wet weather and operational disruptions weighing on production, particularly at Curragh, while Buchanan performed slightly better than expected.

Forecasts were downgraded, reflecting higher costs and diesel assumptions.

Output declined and unit costs rose due to higher fixed costs, with disruptions including a shutdown at Mammoth and longwall moves at Buchanan contributing to weaker earnings.

Despite management maintaining 2026 guidance, Bell Potter suggested a material uplift in performance will be required.

Management initiated a business reset, including engaging consultants and pursuing a structural reset at Curragh and potential asset sales to improve cash flow, while maintaining disciplined capex, according to UBS.

IGO’s third quarter operational result disappointed the analyst at Outperform-rated Macquarie, with weaker production and a guidance downgrade, compounded by limited visibility on ore grades and the FY27 outlook.

Management downgraded guidance at Greenbushes for FY26, cutting production to 1.375mt-1.425mt from 1.5mt-1.65mt and raising cash costs to -$380/t-420/t from -$310/t-360/t. This comes amid lower feed grade, lower recoveries and higher maintenance downtime, Morgan Stanley (Underweight) explained.

While Citi (Neutral) flagged risks around project timing following lower capex guidance, Buy-rated UBS adopted a more positive stance on lithium as market conditions tighten.

Elsewhere, gold miner Greatland Resources had a positive week for its average earnings forecast given a March quarter ‘beat’ on production and costs.

With significant projects under development, and the O’Callaghan’s tungsten project offering upside, not all brokers agree on valuation.

For more details: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/30/the-greatland-resources-valuation-debate/

Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.47%, with Sell ratings at just 6.73%, leaving 26.80% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/1

ASX may have lifted FY26 cost guidance several times yet a stronger revenue backdrop has more than offset this, UBS notes. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has extended heightened volatility into the second half and the broker envisages 4% upside risk to second half estimates for earnings.

The broker’s modelling points to higher sustainable volumes, with the new equity post-trade revenue model from ASX driving upside even if equity turnover subsides.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 6% over FY27-FY28 and raises the target to $65.20 from $58.85. As the stock is trading at a -16% discount to the three-year average PE the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Amid a soft consumer environment Morgans re-bases its expectations for the retail sector, noting sentiment surveys have registered readings near record lows in March and April.

Sentiment has been affected by two consecutive increases to official interest rates on top of persistent cost-of-living pressure and headwinds from the Middle East conflict, and the spike in fuel prices, are pushing the earnings recovery further out.

In light of recent share price weakness, Morgans upgrades Baby Bunting to Accumulate from Hold, lowering its target to $1.79 from $2.60.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Amid a soft consumer environment Morgans re-bases its expectations for the retail sector, noting sentiment surveys have registered readings near record lows in March and April.

Sentiment has been affected by two consecutive increases to official interest rates on top of persistent cost-of-living pressure and headwinds from the Middle East conflict, and the spike in fuel prices, are pushing the earnings recovery further out.

While making modest downward revisions to earnings forecasts, Morgans expects JB Hi-Fi to show more resilience than other discretionary retailers as its core categories have become less “discretionary”. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lowered to $83.50 from $87.00.

JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Judo Capital delivered a March quarter update which reaffirmed FY26 earnings guidance, although now emphasising the lower end of the range of $180-190m in pre-tax profit as it has conservatively topped up its expected loan loss provision.

Morgans considers recent weakness in the share price as a buying opportunity, given the high growth potential in the stock. The company does not intend to pay dividends at the moment, retaining capital to support its significant loan growth aspirations.

While it is high risk versus the major banks, as a challenger operating entirely in the SME banking space, the broker expects capital appreciation will be driven by “stellar earnings growth” across FY26-FY28.

By the end of this decade Morgans is punting on the stock being worth close to $3/share. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $2.09.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Regis Resources produced 90,600 ounces of gold in the March quarter and sold 89,100 ounces at an AISC of $2807, which beat Morgans’ forecasts and was in line with guidance. FY26 gold sales of 370,000 ounces are now modelled.

Earnings appear robust and continue to highlight the company as a high-quality leveraged play for gold exposure, the broker adds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold following recent weakness in the gold sector which Morgans believes has uncovered value in the stock. Target edges up to $10.07 from $10.03.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0

UBS upgrades Scentre Group to Neutral from Sell with a higher target of $3.80 from $3.50.

The analyst is more “constructive” on the stock due to the 41.8bn sub note offer which is expected to assist with more robust earnings growth for FY27 at 4% now from 2% previously.

A full refinance of the sub notes has the potential to underpin around 4.5% earnings accretion with investors still able to tender their holdings until April 30, NY time. The refinancing offsets higher interest costs with a circa $6bn hedge expiring in FY27.

Based on historical take ups the broker estimates around 60% as a base case with equates to around 3% annualised EPS accretion.

EPS forecasts are raised by 2.3% for FY26 and 4% for FY27.

STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SMR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Morgans upgrades Stanmore Resources to Buy from Hold due to share price weakness. Target price is lowered to $2.80 from $2.95 post 1Q26 update with a beat on saleable production at 3.18Mt against 3Mt forecast for the broker and consensus.

Notably, FOB cash cost guidance rose to US$98/t-US$103/t from US$93/t-US$97/t due to higher fuel costs prompting a rise in the analyst’s forecast FOB costs to around US$99/t on the guidance update.

Average realised price of US$152/t was up 12% on 4Q2025 and 9% y/y with higher met coal pricing as wet weather impacted on supply.

Morgans believes met coal prices can move well above current expectations but Stanmore’s existing production profile is starting to fall which means its earnings growth profile depends on higher prices, not volume growth.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/6/0

March quarter Australian export data reflected the underperformance of lower price points with value down -11.4% y/y and volume off -7% y/y, UBS notes.

China mainland value declined for a second straight quarter, down -20.7% on the back of a -30.3% fall in the prior period. The analyst points to a stabilisation of shipment levels to meet demand. Value has also stabilised post the removal of import duty.

United States exports saw a fall of -35.9% y/y above the $5/l price and down -43.8% below $5/l level. Canadian exports were robust.

Management pointed to 0.3m cases ex-California distributor inventory which it expects to handle over the next two years.

Treasury Wine Estates remains Neutral rated with a $4 target. No change to EPS estimates.

WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Woolworths Group served up a mixed 3Q26 trading update remarked Morgans with weaker FY26 earnings guidance for A&NZ food offset by robust sales growth.

Like for like Australian food sales rose 5.3% with notably ongoing trading momentum and robust volume growth. NZ food like for like sales rose 2.4% and met the analyst’s expectations but missed consensus by -3%.

As cost of living pressures rise management highlighted “value” is becoming more important for customers. Strategically the company has sought to absorb higher fuel costs and invest in pricing.

The broker believes the turnaround strategy is working and Woolworths is a relatively defensive business with long term tailwinds from population growth.

No change to target price of $37.30 and the stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

See also WOW downgrade.

Downgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Copper production from 29Metals beat Macquarie’s estimates although byproducts missed expectations. The company has downgraded 2026 guidance for zinc, gold and silver amid ongoing geotechnical issues at Xantho, with additional works planned to further reduce the risk of interruptions to production in the future.

Following the equity raising earlier in the year, the balance sheet is net cash $48m at the end of the quarter, yet after incorporating the reduction in guidance, the broker expects the business will continue to consume cash reserves throughout the rest of 2026.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target cut to $0.25 from $0.50.

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Atlas Arteria has received an unsolicited takeover bid from its 35% major shareholder, IFM Investors, for the remaining 65% of securities it does not own. The offer has been structured at $4.75 per security, rising to $5.10 if acceptances take it to a threshold of 45% or above.

The company has advised shareholders to take no action while the board considers the offer. Ord Minnett raises the target to the offer price of $4.75 a share while downgrading the rating to Hold from Accumulate.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Bell Potter downgrades Fortescue to Sell from Hold with a lower target price of $18.15 from $20.30.

March quarter iron ore shipments slipped -4% q/q but boosted the result to record shipments for the nine months to March end of 148.7mt which aligns with guidance and expectations.

Management’s FY26 guidance was lowered to 9mt-10mt from 10mt-12mt for Iron Bridge due to wet weather. Total shipment guidance remains unchanged. Realised prices remained high at 89% of the Platts 61% CFR index and Iron Bridge price received was stable.

Fortescue also approved a US$60m investment to develop Pilbara Green energy project for 200MW with demand from industrial users and data centres mentioned. The broker thinks the project is high risk with possible “asymmetrical outcome”.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower noting the core iron ore business continues to perform well.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Conflict in the Middle East has flagged both positive and negative outcomes for GrainCorp, Ord Minnett observes, while recent forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and commentary on El Nino set up a “potentially ugly scenario” for FY27 crop volumes.

Disruptions from the Middle East war in the second half should have a positive effect on earnings, although the materially higher fertiliser, energy and chemical input costs could reduce winter crop plantings further, as well as FY27 grain volumes, the broker explains.

FY26 EBITDA estimates are increased by 11% to $244m because of price movements while FY27 and FY28 estimates are reduced by -25% and -23%, respectively, because of anticipated lower volumes.

Target is reduced to $7.25 from $8.60 and the rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Bell Potter lowers its target for Inghams Group to $2.00 from $2.75 to reflect weaker pricing and higher input costs, particularly into FY27. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

The analysts explain these changes are a response to rising global costs for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) producers post the Middle East conflict, and recent commentary regarding a slowdown in food service distribution channels.

The broker sees potential volume shifts by the group into more volatile wholesale markets, while pricing remains constrained by retailer actions such as price freezes.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Northern Star Resources delivered a quarterly result that slightly exceeded Ord Minnett’s expectations in terms of costs.

KCGM capital expenditure remains unchanged in FY26 but increases by $75m in FY27 because of poor construction productivity, cost inflation and delayed expenditure on the thermal power plant/transmission structure.

Ord Minnett observes the business is entering a higher-risk phase as the mill expansion is completed. Estimates for FY27 are moderated which results in a reduction in the target to $22.70 from $23.40 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0

PLS Group delivered record production, which was well ahead of expectations amid record spodumene production of 230,000t, driven by improved plant reliability, high utilisation and strong recoveries.

Morgans found the key theme in the quarter was the scale of execution as the Pilgan plant continued to demonstrate reliability following the P1000 expansion. Benefits from the expansion are expected to continue being realised over subsequent quarters.

The re-start of the Ngungaju plant is expected to marginally increase unit costs yet current spodumene pricing remains highly supportive, the broker adds.

Rating is downgraded to Trim from Hold, reflecting the stock trading close to fair value. Target is raised to $5.40 from $4.60.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Suncorp Group has announced a five-year aggregate reinsurance deal, starting June 30 offering $800m in yearly protection and $2.4bn in total coverage over the period.

Morgans notes the deal has claims losses of $1.85bn slightly above the FY27 natural hazard forecast of $1.8bn. The deal is expected to lower future earnings volatility and the market is anticipated to view it positively.

Management’s FY26 guidance is largely unchanged although the insurance trading result (ITR) is at the upper end of the 10%-12% range which is considered as more positive than the prior indication of “the top half”.

Hazard claims are currently coming in below the broker’s forecast. EPS forecasts are lifted slightly for FY26 and FY27.

Target price rises to $17.79 from $17 and the stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate due to the current share price.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Ahead of TechnologyOne’s 1H26 results (May 19), UBS downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy with a lower target of $32 from $38.70 with the analyst flagging few surprises post the February guidance upgrade at the AGM.

The company continues to be viewed as the most “AI defensive” due to its customer base in local councils and higher education. The possibility of SaaS AI disruption via customer DIY and new entrant risk is considered “minimal”.

The decline in target reflects a higher weighted average cost of capital assumption as the risk free rate moves to 4.5% from 4%, with a higher equity risk premium ascribed at 6% from 5.5%.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher.

WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Bell Potter lowers its target for Woolworths Group to $35.50 from $38.25, on weaker forecast margins and higher cost assumptions, and downgrades to Hold from Buy following 3Q results.

While the group generated a strong quarterly sales performance, driven by Australian Food, there are emerging signs of softer consumer demand, the broker suggests.

Despite solid top-line growth, the analysts point to margin pressure as higher supply chain costs are absorbed, leading to a downgrade in Australian Food earnings (EBIT) guidance.

See also WOW upgrade.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms