Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 24-04-26

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This story features ALCOA CORPORATION, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAI
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 20 to Friday April 24, 2026
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 20
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.52%; Hold 26.63%; Sell 6.85%

For the week ending Friday, April 24, 2026, FNArena recorded twelve upgrades and twenty downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

Macquarie, Citi and UBS downgraded their ratings for Bank of Queensland following interim results (August year-end) and Morgans upgraded its rating in response to share price weakness.

The bank’s 1H26 cash earnings missed forecasts by around -4%; the net interest margin was around -5bps softer than expected.

Macquarie pointed to downside risks from rising provisions and ongoing loss of market share. UBS mentioned execution risk around restoring profitable mortgage growth and lowering the cost base.

Despite these negatives, UBS noted the bank’s strategic repositioning over recent years with its “capital-light income opportunities” and suggested the recent share buyback is supportive.

Citi also highlighted ongoing potential  for capital management plus solid provisioning and felt the market would look through the earnings ‘miss’, partly aided by an improving margin outlook.

As Morgans explained, margins should improve in 2H26, supported by funding, mix and hedging tailwinds.

TechnologyOne and Cochlear also received two rating downgrades apiece.

Morgans reviewed its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates. Greater uncertainty around terminal values driven by AI was also taken into account for remodeling valuations.

The broker’s key picks in the space are WiseTech Global, Megaport, REA Group, Car Group and Light & Wonder.

The target for TechnologyOne was lowered by -10% to $31.20 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Given the timing of the Plus (next generation SaaS platform) rollout and the company’s AI features, alongside a second-half earnings skew, Morgans sees limited scope for a near-term upgrade to FY26 guidance.

Bell Potter raised its target to $31 from $29 and downgraded to Hold from Buy, citing recent share price strength, which has left the valuation looking stretched relative to peers.

While acknowledging the company’s defensive qualities, including strong positioning against AI disruption and a high-quality customer base, this broker suggested investors could find better value elsewhere in the sector.

Cochlear downgraded its FY26 profit guidance by -30% at the midpoint to $290m-330m. The consensus profit forecast had already been lowered, largely due to Australian dollar appreciation, but only to $410m.

Most concerning, analysts opine, is falling developed market demand. A full account of broker views is available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/23/cochlears-shock-downgrade-raises-concerns/

Bapcor and Temple & Webster follow Cochlear on the week’s top ten ranking for negative change to average target price with falls of -23% and -9%, respectively.

Morgans made material negative changes to its earnings forecasts for Bapcor, reflecting a recent capital raising and revised FY26 guidance (yet again). The business is working through a reset amid weaker trading momentum and elevated competition, the broker explained.

While the core network is seen as strategically valuable, Morgan suggests integration issues and operating headwinds suggest execution risk on the turnaround is elevated.

Although the balance sheet has been repaired, the investment case remains “challenging” and the broker’s rating was downgraded to Trim from Hold.

Citi also noted management commentary from March quarter results by US-listed Genuine Parts Company pointed to increasingly challenging conditions for auto parts retailers such as Bapcor.

Australasian sales growth for Genuine Parts moderated slightly compared to 4Q25, while management also flagged regional risks from Middle East tensions and rising interest rates, supporting Citi’s cautious stance on the sector.

Citi last week downgraded its rating for Temple & Webster to Neutral from Buy, taking into account slower growth in web traffic throughout March and a deterioration in active app users since February’s trading update.

These factors combine with increasing macro risks facing sales and margins, prompting downgrades to the broker’s FY26-28 EPS estimates by between -12%-19%.

Uranium exposure Paladin Energy is positioned atop the week’s top ten table for downgrades for forecast earnings by analysts, followed by Cochlear.

Paladin had largely pre-reported March quarter production with the focus in the latest update on the potential disruption from the Middle East war and the ramp up to nameplate capacity at Langer Heinrich by the end of FY26, UBS noted.

Current market sentiment is expected to be negatively affected by the conflict, but the broker remained constructive on the medium-to long-term outlook, with the macro environment increasingly about energy security and diversity.

Ord Minnett noted revised guidance implies significantly higher costs in the June quarter, reflecting full-scale mining and rising diesel and reagent prices, which may result in negative free cash flow.

The near-term outlook appears somewhat uncertain, Ord Minnett suggests, with limited visibility on FY27 and exposure to external cost pressures.

Next on the table are travel technology company Serko, gold miner Regis Resources, the previously mentioned Bapcor, followed by accommodation technology services provider SiteMinder. 

UBS reviewed its coverage of travel-exposed emerging companies, incorporating a two-month disruption stemming from the Middle East war (through to end-April 2026), followed by a softer macroeconomic outlook.

Within the sector, preferred exposures are SiteMinder, Web Travel and Kelsian Group. Buy ratings were also maintained for Flight Centre Travel, Serko and Tourism Holdings Rentals.

The target price for Serko was reduced by -13% to NZ$3.50.

March quarter production for gold producer Regis Resources came in slightly below Bell Potter’s forecast, with the Duketon operation outperforming and Tropicana under-delivering.

The company is expected to meet FY26 guidance, supported by consistent execution, strong free cash flow and balance sheet strength from unhedged exposure to rising gold prices.

Remaining positive on the all-Australian, multi-mine portfolio and gold price leverage, Bell Potter retained a Buy rating and raised its target by 10 cents to $9.45.

SiteMinder was part of the above-mentioned sector review by Morgans to reflect higher discount rates, suffering a -16% reduction in target to $5.90.

Turning to more positive outcomes, here mineral sands and critical minerals company Iluka Resources enjoyed the largest consensus target price increase of around 12% last week. 

Stronger March quarter sales reduced immediate risk for a capital raising, according to Ord Minnett, and supported a reduction in mineral sands debt to $417m, down from $473m.

Ord Minnett noted a shift in the investment case towards rare earths, with Iluka’s Eneabba development driving market interest. The mineral sands business is expected to remain self-funding.

 Viva Energy and Xero head up the ranking for positive change to forecasts.

Viva’s update on the Geelong refinery fire was better than expected by Ord Minnett, with production set to recover to above 90% within two weeks.

The outage primarily affects lower-margin petrol, with a favourable shift toward higher-margin diesel and jet fuel expected to lift refining margins.

While near-term earnings pressure is anticipated from reduced production and higher fuel procurement costs, tight regional supply for refined petroleum products produced during the middle stage of the oil refining process will likely support margins, UBS explained.

Despite a -21% fall in Morgans’ target for accounting software provider Xero (as part of the broker’s Technology, Media & Gaming review) the FY26 EPS forecast rose meaningfully due to fixed cost leverage after a reduction in expense forecast for the financial year.

Given the broker’s new $110 target for Xero implied around 30% upside to the latest share price, the rating was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Both asset manager Navigator Global Investments and buy now pay later services provider Zip Co appear in the tables for positive change to target and earnings.

Navigator posted ownership-adjusted assets under management (AUM) growth of 9% in the third quarter, while Partner AUM was up 16.5%, underpinned by the Georgian acquisition, explained Macquarie.

While performance fee momentum remains supported, UBS felt mix shifts toward lower-margin managed accounts may temper earnings.

Morgans considers the stock well positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in global alternative asset markets.

Despite a tough macroeconomic environment in the US, Zip Co’s bad debts remain low and the company posted better-than-expected March quarter earnings.

As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/21/zip-co-riding-out-the-storm/, some 40% of the company’s total transaction value is being spent on household goods, 10% on food & beverage, and between 6%-7% on insurance and utilities, which provides a level of defensiveness, according to UBS.

Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.52%, with Sell ratings at just 6.85%, leaving 26.63% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Ord Minnett notes Alcoa’s March-quarter operating earnings missed expectations, largely due to inventory repositioning within the US and logistical issues, which weighed on shipments despite broadly in-line production.

The broker views these shortfalls as timing-related, with underlying demand remaining strong and supply constrained by smelter shutdowns in the Middle East, creating potential upside for Alcoa.

Higher diesel costs are expected to pressure the company’s Western Australian bauxite operations, particularly in 2H 2026.

Ord Minnett makes minor upgrades to outer-year forecasts, maintains its $107 target, and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold on valuation grounds.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/1

While Bank of Queensland’s 1H26 result showed a decline in earnings, EPS exceeded Morgans’ forecast by 4% but missed consensus by -3%.

Margins softened in the half but are expected to improve in 2H26, supported by funding, mix and hedging tailwinds.

The broker highlights a stronger capital position, enabling higher dividends and potential capital returns, which may appeal to income-focused investors.

Morgans upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, retaining a $7.39 target, citing improved total shareholder return (TSR) following recent share price weakness.

See also BOQ downgrade.

COCHLEAR LIMITED ((COH)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Cochlear has flagged weaker demand in developed markets as well as uncertainty in relation to Middle East sales and now expects underlying net profit of $290-330m compared with guidance of $435-460m previously.

Weaker demand has also combined with a headwind from FX-based spot rates. Second half sales growth is expected to be up 2-6% in constant currency terms and the company will undertake measures to revamp its cost base.

Morgan Stanley finds the valuation now less demanding, albeit still not compelling, following the sharp reaction in the share price.

Its forecasts now capture items Cochlear highlighted in its update as well as assuming negative operating leverage through operating expenditure lines.

This brings the broker’s estimates for net profit to the mid point of downgraded guidance.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight, although acknowledges visibility is limited and confidence is low.

Target is reduced to $119 from $194. Industry View: In-Line.

See also COH downgrade.

GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP ((GLF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Morgans believes the recent weakness in the share price of Gemlife Communities has been overdone and reassesses key assumptions in the wake of the Middle East war, a higher interest-rate outlook and softer auction clearance sales.

The broker is still positive regarding earnings prospects as demand remains favourable, underpinned by a lack of downsizing options for an ageing population and a customer cohort that is less exposed to financing and affordability pressures compared with other residential segments.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target is reduced to $5.66 from $5.84.

MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED ((MSV)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Mitchell Services continues to show resilience, with Morgans noting EBITDA margins expanded to 23% in the third quarter, up from 11.5% in the prior corresponding period.

The balance sheet is strong, with net debt of $900,000 after absorbing the -$8.5m dividend payment made during the quarter.

There are options now for capital allocation as the company enters the fourth quarter and towards FY27, the broker adds, while upside potential remains as rig utilisation is still below 70%.

A recovery in coal prices could unlock further earnings potential with an increase in rig utilisation. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. The target rises to $0.55 from $0.50.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Lighten from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/3

National Australia Bank has indicated bad debt charges will be -$706m in the first half as rising domestic interest rates and global energy costs impact customers. The number is in line with Ord Minnett’s expectations.

The broker has abandoned using banks’ internal modelling measures for credit risk-weighted assets, considering them unreliable and now uses a standardised calculation.

National Australia Bank, which is scheduled to report on May 4, has also changed its software capitalisation accounting policy, bringing it into line with peers.

The balance sheet will also benefit from the decision to offer a -1.5% discount on the dividend reinvestment plan that should generate around $1.8bn in capital.

Ord Minnett retains a $37 target although raises the rating to Lighten from Sell on valuation grounds.

NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still “hot”, although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker’s discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Ord Minnett upgrades Nick Scali to Hold from Sell and reduces its target to $15 from $17.

REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Ord Minnett reviews the property sector coverage to incorporate at least two further increases in official interest rates in 2026 and consequent changes to commercial rates.

The 90-day bank bill swap rate in its model is now expected to peak at 4.65% compared with 4.20% previously. Higher interest rates are expected to drive the weighted average cost of debt up to 5.7% for FY29.

Across the sector the broker envisages the most risk of “absolute cuts in distributions per security” will come from those groups with low WACD but also stretched payout ratios that leave only a narrow safety margin.

Region Group’s rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target is lifted to $2.55 from $2.35.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Ord Minnett reviews consumer sector coverage to reflect the prospect for higher interest rates as most data shows the domestic economy is still “hot”, although consumer confidence is flagging in the face of an uncertain economic backdrop and the global energy shock.

The review has resulted in EPS estimates downgraded by -1%-12% across the broker’s discretionary coverage, with cuts to targets for most stocks in the category.

There is pressure on inputs that rely on oil, such as foam packaging for furniture retailers as well as nylon, polyester and acrylic components for apparel and homewares.

Some companies and customer categories will feel a more specific impact from higher fuel costs such as the leisure-focused customers at Super Retail’s BCF chain.

Ord Minnett upgrades Super Retail to Accumulate from Hold, reducing its price target to $16 from $17.

See also SUL downgrade.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/5/1

On first take, Citi views Treasury Wine Estates’ trading update as positive, with management confirming FY26 earnings guidance, supported by what appears to be a “favourable” stock depletions update and new debt commitments of $300m, which alleviate some balance sheet concerns.

China depletions rose 40% over Chinese New Year, with momentum retained into the end of 3Q26 due to Bin 389 and 407. Asia, ex-China experienced a 14% rise in depletions despite momentum in grey channels. US depletions rose 9.1% y/y.

The update is considered “de-risking” for the short term outlook, and the analyst upgrades the stock to Neutral from Sell. Target $4.25.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie expects ROM coal production from Whitehaven Coal in the third quarter of around 9.4mt to be in line with expectations while saleable coal production is likely to miss by around -3%.

Higher prices are expected to offset higher costs, somewhat, and the duration of the Middle East conflict will be a key catalyst, the broker adds.

The company has announced its refinancing package: US$450m of senior secured notes with a 5.5 year tenor and another US$450m with an eight-year tenor, at coupon rates of 6.25% and 6.75%, respectively.

The proceeds will be used to pay down the acquisition facility. Macquarie was pleased witth the refinancing and upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $9.50 from $9.25.

XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Morgans lowers target prices across its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates.

The broker’s house risk-free rate is increased to 4.6% from 4.2%. Greater uncertainty around terminal values driven by AI is also taken into account for valuations.

Given the sector’s long-duration cash flows, technology remains highly sensitive to interest rates, the analysts highlight, with every 50bps increase reducing valuations by around -13% on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation basis.

Australian rates have already risen 50bps year-to-date, with further increases expected.

The broker’s key picks are WiseTech Global, Megaport, REA Group, CAR Group and Light & Wonder.

The target for Xero falls by -21% to $111.00. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. The broker broadly reduces its expense forecasts by -4% which meaningfully lifts EPS due to fixed cost leverage.

Downgrade

ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgans considers ARB Corp a high-quality business with industry-leading margins yet notes it is working through a challenging period and a slow start to FY26. This reflects weaker new vehicle sales and softer export demand.

The broker lowers FY26-FY28 EPS estimates by -6%-10% and lowers second half sales expectations across the aftermarket while expecting exports to be flat.

Morgans remains positive on the medium-term outlook amid strong brand equity, network growth and new revenue channels.

Rating moves down to Accumulate from Buy while the target is lowered to $22.04 from $31.85.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/1

Morgans makes material changes to forecasts for Bapcor, reflecting the capital raising and revised FY26 guidance. The business is working through a reset amid weaker trading momentum and elevated competition.

The broker observes the core network is strategically valuable but integration issues and operating headwinds mean execution risk on the turnaround is elevated.

Although the balance sheet has been repaired, the investment case remains “challenging” and the rating is reduced to Trim from Hold.

The broker moves to a pure PE valuation with a target of $0.61.

BHP GROUP LIMITED ((BHP)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Ord Minnett highlights BHP Group’s March quarter production was mixed, with iron ore and thermal coal ahead of expectations, copper in line and coking coal below forecasts due to weather disruptions.

Management largely retained FY26 guidance, with copper expected at the top end of the range and lower unit costs driven by operational improvements.

The broker flags cost pressures in coal due to weather impacts, while noting resilience from procurement and operations amid external risks.

EPS forecasts are largely unchanged and the target price is retained at $54.

The stock is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) the preferred stock post the abandoned talks with Glencore and more cost savings, volume growth and asset sales expected than from BHP.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Following further reflection on interim results for Bank of Queensland, Citi lowers its target to $6.80 from $7.15 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

It’s felt upside catalysts are largely reflected in the share price, with further growth dependent on delivering profitable volume expansion.

The latter remains constrained by competitive conditions across retail and commercial segments, the analyst explains.

A summary of yesterday’s research by the broker follows.

Bank of Queensland’s 1H26 cash earnings of $176m (released today) missed forecasts by consensus and Citi by around -4%. In an initial assessment, the broker notes the net interest margin (NIM) was around -5bps softer than expected.

The NIM decline was driven by timing factors, including cash rate impacts and competition, which the analysts expect to reverse in 2H26, supported by funding and mix tailwinds.

Much of the decline also appears timing-related, including scope to optimise liquidity following the Whole Loan Sale (WLS), part of the bank’s equipment finance loan book.

Costs were in line, while higher bad debt charges were manageable and asset quality remains sound, according to Citi.

The market is expected to look through the miss, supported by an improving margin outlook, solid provisioning and ongoing capital management potential.

Post yesterday’s update below, Macquarie downgrades Bank of Queensland to Underperform from Neutral, pointing to downside risks from rising provisions and ongoing loss of market share.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -5%-7% for FY26-FY28, with the broker pointing to the sale of the equipment finance book, weaker credit growth decreasing the balance sheet, and higher provisions for impaired loans.

Target price slips to $5.70 from $6.00.

Below is Macquarie’s initial response from yesterday:

****

Macquarie highlights Bank of Queensland’s circa $3.7bn equipment finance book sale is a catalyst for an around $300m capital return and a 15–25bps uplift in return on equity (ROE).

A servicing and forward flow agreement is expected to partially offset lost net interest income (NII).

Given an over $600m stranded franking balance, the broker expects capital to be returned via a fully franked special dividend, assuming 45c in 2H26. Earnings forecasts are unchanged pending further detail, though modest EPS dilution is expected.

While transformation efforts continue and near-term earnings are supported by funding spreads, commentary explains the bank remains sub-scale and below its cost of capital.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target to $6.25 from $6.50.

Further to noting “disappointing” first half results from Bank of Queensland, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lowers its target to $7.00 from $7.50.

The broker continues to like the bank’s strategic repositioning over recent years with its “capital-light income opportunities” and the buyback is supportive.

Yet, execution risk around restoring profitable mortgage growth and lowering the cost base has driven a more balanced view on the earnings outlook from UBS.

The broker reduces cash EPS estimates for FY26 by -4.3% and FY27 by -0.6%. Return on equity is expected to reach 9% in FY28.

UBS emphasises a critical factor for the investment outlook is achieving a recovery in lending growth.

See also BOQ upgrade.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett reviews the property sector coverage to incorporate at least two further increases in official interest rates in 2026 and consequent changes to commercial rates. The 90-day bank bill swap rate in its model is now expected to peak at 4.65% compared with 4.20% previously.

Higher interest rates are expected to drive the weighted average cost of debt up to 5.7% for FY29. Across the sector the broker envisages the most risk of “absolute cuts in distributions per security” will come from those groups with low weighted average cost of debt (WACD) but also stretched payout ratios that leave only a narrow safety margin.

Charter Hall is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy with the target lowered to $22.70 from $25.10.

COCHLEAR LIMITED ((COH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/5/1

UBS notes revised guidance from Cochlear includes -$18m-$25m in restructuring costs arising from “cost-base reshaping” and a further $10m for provisioning of receivables from the Middle East.

Post the initial update this morning, see further below, UBS downgrades Cochlear to Neutral from Hold and lowers its price target price to $109 from $302.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by around -25% in FY26 and FY27 and are at the midpoint of downgraded guidance.

The analyst stresses the outlook into FY27 remains uncertain, with low earnings “visibility” against a challenging macro backdrop and strains on the European hospital systems.

****

At the midpoint the revised guidance range of $290-330m implies a second-half net profit of $115m. The broker points out while resultant savings were not quantified the cost-base reshaping represents a pulling forward of existing plans to reduce fixed costs. More detail is expected at the full-year results in August.

UBS points out the explanations for weak unit volumes in recent months varied across regions, yet overall attributed to a “deprioritisation” of hearing health. Buy rating and $302 target maintained.

Management at Cochlear has cut FY26 profit guidance by around -30% at the midpoint, with consensus already factoring in a significant downgrade, observes Citi.

The broker highlights a broad range of headwinds, including weaker implant demand in developed markets, Middle East disruption, FX impacts, reimbursement pressures in China and margin compression.

While most factors are expected to be temporary, the analyst believes softer demand will persist, lowering its long-term implant growth outlook.

FY26 earnings forecasts are reduced, the broker’s target falls to $95 from $210, and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

See also COH upgrade.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Hub24’s March quarter net inflows of $4.0bn were below Macquarie’s expectation but in line with consensus, representing a strong outcome despite a one-off institutional outflow.

Funds under administration (FUA) of $127.8bn missed the broker’s $129.3m forecast, reflecting weaker flows and softer markets.

The analyst highlights continued market share gains and solid underlying momentum, with minimal earnings changes.

Macquarie lifts its target to $94.50 from $92.75 but downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing a premium valuation relative to peers.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Ord Minnett reviews the property sector coverage to incorporate at least two further increases in official interest rates in 2026 and consequent changes to commercial rates.

The 90-day bank bill swap rate in its model is now expected to peak at 4.65% compared with 4.20% previously. Higher interest rates are expected to drive the weighted average cost of debt up to 5.7% for FY29.

Across the sector the broker envisages the most risk of “absolute cuts in distributions per security” will come from those groups with low weighted average cost of debt (WACD) but also stretched payout ratios that leave only a narrow safety margin.

Mirvac Group’s rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy with the target lowered to $1.85 from $1.95.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie Group has recently announced the sale of key assets, including the aircraft leasing business, Macquarie Air Finance, and the OnStream meter business.

UBS revises earnings estimates to account for these transactions, which will impact FY26 and FY27 earnings in particular.

The sale of OnStream is expected to significantly boost earnings for the CGM division in FY26, with the after-tax impact on group earnings estimated at around an increase of $400m.

Investor attention is expected to remain on the exposure to private credit and SaaS private equity investments.

In light of the 22% increase in the share price over the past month and the stock moving through the revised price target, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy ahead of financial results on May 8.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Paladin Energy shares have performed well, Macquarie observes, now implying a uranium price of US$105.25/lb (US$11 2.75/lb if Michelin/Aus assets are excluded), and outperforming peers since March 17.

The broker believes investors should now consider the forward risks and whether they are being adequately rewarded for taking these on.

FY27 guidance is a key catalyst, likely in July, and the broker envisages downside risk to consensus forecasts.

Realised pricing continues to underperform peers and, now with a more onerous share price, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target edges up to $13.55 and $13.50.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices, Morgans has adopted a more conservative stance on earnings forecasts for Amcor, Brambles, Reece and Reliance Worldwide.

The broker’s FY26-FY28 underlying earnings (EBIT) forecasts for Reece are lowered by between -2%-3%, with FY26 now broadly in line with guidance.

Key risks are seen as higher input costs for plastic-related products, potential supply disruptions and softer housing demand driven by elevated interest rates.

While Reece has a strong track record of passing through costs, the analyst sees uncertainty in housing markets across A&NZ and the US.

Morgans downgrades its rating to Hold from Accumulate and sets a $14.10 target, down from $17.70.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/2

UBS downgrades Sandfire Resources to Sell from neutral with a lower target of $16.75 from $17.05 due to the recent strength in the share price.

The analyst points to the pre-release of its net cash and March quarter production of 22.9kt of copper which was less than expected due to the impact of wet weather and ongoing downtime at Matsa and delays in accessing higher grade ore at Motheo.

Management however has retained FY26 guidance for 102-114kt copper and will need to print a strong 4Q production to achieve the flagged guidance, the broker points out.

Costs for Matsa and Motheo came down with “polymetallic benefits” noted as the reason while UBS’ very “bullish” outlook on precious metals has silver generating around 20% of revenue, exceeding zinc at circa 15% for the next two years.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Morgans lowers forecasts for Super Retail, amid a more cautious outllook for consumer discretionary expenditure, and a view that the stock remains cyclically exposed. FY26-28 EPS forecasts are lowered by -6%-7%.

The broker considers Supercheap Auto best placed within the group, given a relatively defensive exposure, and remains careful regarding the outlook for Rebel and BCF, given greater sensitivity to the economic cycle and affordability.

Macpac has shown good momentum, the broker adds. Target is reduced to $12.90 from $17.00 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

See also SUL upgrade.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Bell Potter raises its target for TechnologyOne to $31 from $29 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing recent share price strength, which has left the valuation looking stretched relative to peers.

While acknowledging the company’s defensive qualities, including strong positioning against AI disruption and a high-quality customer base, the broker sees better value elsewhere in the sector.

The broker’s forecasts remain unchanged, with earnings and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth broadly in line with company guidance.

Morgans lowers target prices across its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates.

The broker’s house risk-free rate is increased to 4.6% from 4.2%. Greater uncertainty around terminal values driven by AI is also taken into account for valuations.

Given the sector’s long-duration cash flows, technology remains highly sensitive to interest rates, the analysts highlight, with every 50bps increase reducing valuations by around -13% on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation basis.

Australian rates have already risen 50bps year-to-date, with further increases expected.

The broker’s key picks are WiseTech Global, Megaport, REA Group, CAR Group and Light & Wonder.

The target for TechnologyOne falls by -10% to $31.20. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Given the timing of the rollout of Plus and the company’s AI features, along with a 2H earnings skew, Morgans sees little chance of a near-term upgrade to FY26 guidance.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Citi downgrades Temple & Webster to Neutral from Buy, taking into account slower growth in web traffic in March and a deterioration in active app users since February’s trading update.

This combines with increasing macro risks facing sales and margins. FY26-28 EPS estimates are downgraded by -12%-19%.

The new FY26 EBITDA margin forecast is 3.5%. The target is lowered to $8.00 from $9.50.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett reviews the property sector coverage to incorporate at least two further increases in official interest rates in 2026 and consequent changes to commercial rates.

The 90-day bank bill swap rate in its model is now expected to peak at 4.65% compared with 4.20% previously. Higher interest rates are expected to drive the weighted average cost of debt up to 5.7% for FY29.

Across the sector the broker envisages the most risk of “absolute cuts in distributions per security” will come from those groups with low WACD but also stretched payout ratios that leave only a narrow safety margin.

Vicinity Centres is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target is steady at $2.50.

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