Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday April 20 to Friday April 24, 2026
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 20
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.52%; Hold 26.63%; Sell 6.85%
For the week ending Friday, April 24, 2026, FNArena recorded twelve upgrades and twenty downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
Macquarie, Citi and UBS downgraded their ratings for Bank of Queensland following interim results (August year-end) and Morgans upgraded its rating in response to share price weakness.
The bank’s 1H26 cash earnings missed forecasts by around -4%; the net interest margin was around -5bps softer than expected.
Upside catalysts are largely priced in, Citi suggested, with further growth dependent on delivering profitable volume expansion, which remains constrained by competitive conditions across retail and commercial segments.
Macquarie pointed to downside risks from rising provisions and ongoing loss of market share. UBS mentioned execution risk around restoring profitable mortgage growth and lowering the cost base.
Despite these negatives, UBS noted the bank's strategic repositioning over recent years with its "capital-light income opportunities" and suggested the recent share buyback is supportive.
Citi also highlighted ongoing potential for capital management plus solid provisioning and felt the market would look through the earnings ‘miss’, partly aided by an improving margin outlook.
As Morgans explained, margins should improve in 2H26, supported by funding, mix and hedging tailwinds.
TechnologyOne and Cochlear also received two rating downgrades apiece.
Morgans reviewed its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates. Greater uncertainty around terminal values driven by AI was also taken into account for remodeling valuations.
The broker's key picks in the space are WiseTech Global, Megaport, REA Group, Car Group and Light & Wonder.
The target for TechnologyOne was lowered by -10% to $31.20 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
Given the timing of the Plus (next generation SaaS platform) rollout and the company’s AI features, alongside a second-half earnings skew, Morgans sees limited scope for a near-term upgrade to FY26 guidance.
Bell Potter raised its target to $31 from $29 and downgraded to Hold from Buy, citing recent share price strength, which has left the valuation looking stretched relative to peers.
While acknowledging the company's defensive qualities, including strong positioning against AI disruption and a high-quality customer base, this broker suggested investors could find better value elsewhere in the sector.
Cochlear downgraded its FY26 profit guidance by -30% at the midpoint to $290m-330m. The consensus profit forecast had already been lowered, largely due to Australian dollar appreciation, but only to $410m.
Most concerning, analysts opine, is falling developed market demand. A full account of broker views is available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/23/cochlears-shock-downgrade-raises-concerns/
Bapcor and Temple & Webster follow Cochlear on the week's top ten ranking for negative change to average target price with falls of -23% and -9%, respectively.
Morgans made material negative changes to its earnings forecasts for Bapcor, reflecting a recent capital raising and revised FY26 guidance (yet again). The business is working through a reset amid weaker trading momentum and elevated competition, the broker explained.
While the core network is seen as strategically valuable, Morgan suggests integration issues and operating headwinds suggest execution risk on the turnaround is elevated.
Although the balance sheet has been repaired, the investment case remains "challenging" and the broker’s rating was downgraded to Trim from Hold.
Citi also noted management commentary from March quarter results by US-listed Genuine Parts Company pointed to increasingly challenging conditions for auto parts retailers such as Bapcor.
Australasian sales growth for Genuine Parts moderated slightly compared to 4Q25, while management also flagged regional risks from Middle East tensions and rising interest rates, supporting Citi's cautious stance on the sector.
Citi last week downgraded its rating for Temple & Webster to Neutral from Buy, taking into account slower growth in web traffic throughout March and a deterioration in active app users since February's trading update.
These factors combine with increasing macro risks facing sales and margins, prompting downgrades to the broker’s FY26-28 EPS estimates by between -12%-19%.
Uranium exposure Paladin Energy is positioned atop the week's top ten table for downgrades for forecast earnings by analysts, followed by Cochlear.
Paladin had largely pre-reported March quarter production with the focus in the latest update on the potential disruption from the Middle East war and the ramp up to nameplate capacity at Langer Heinrich by the end of FY26, UBS noted.
Current market sentiment is expected to be negatively affected by the conflict, but the broker remained constructive on the medium-to long-term outlook, with the macro environment increasingly about energy security and diversity.
Ord Minnett noted revised guidance implies significantly higher costs in the June quarter, reflecting full-scale mining and rising diesel and reagent prices, which may result in negative free cash flow.
The near-term outlook appears somewhat uncertain, Ord Minnett suggests, with limited visibility on FY27 and exposure to external cost pressures.
Next on the table are travel technology company Serko, gold miner Regis Resources, the previously mentioned Bapcor, followed by accommodation technology services provider SiteMinder.
UBS reviewed its coverage of travel-exposed emerging companies, incorporating a two-month disruption stemming from the Middle East war (through to end-April 2026), followed by a softer macroeconomic outlook.
Within the sector, preferred exposures are SiteMinder, Web Travel and Kelsian Group. Buy ratings were also maintained for Flight Centre Travel, Serko and Tourism Holdings Rentals.
The target price for Serko was reduced by -13% to NZ$3.50.
March quarter production for gold producer Regis Resources came in slightly below Bell Potter’s forecast, with the Duketon operation outperforming and Tropicana under-delivering.
The company is expected to meet FY26 guidance, supported by consistent execution, strong free cash flow and balance sheet strength from unhedged exposure to rising gold prices.
Remaining positive on the all-Australian, multi-mine portfolio and gold price leverage, Bell Potter retained a Buy rating and raised its target by 10 cents to $9.45.
SiteMinder was part of the above-mentioned sector review by Morgans to reflect higher discount rates, suffering a -16% reduction in target to $5.90.
Turning to more positive outcomes, here mineral sands and critical minerals company Iluka Resources enjoyed the largest consensus target price increase of around 12% last week.
Stronger March quarter sales reduced immediate risk for a capital raising, according to Ord Minnett, and supported a reduction in mineral sands debt to $417m, down from $473m.
Ord Minnett noted a shift in the investment case towards rare earths, with Iluka's Eneabba development driving market interest. The mineral sands business is expected to remain self-funding.
Viva Energy and Xero head up the ranking for positive change to forecasts.
Viva’s update on the Geelong refinery fire was better than expected by Ord Minnett, with production set to recover to above 90% within two weeks.
The outage primarily affects lower-margin petrol, with a favourable shift toward higher-margin diesel and jet fuel expected to lift refining margins.
While near-term earnings pressure is anticipated from reduced production and higher fuel procurement costs, tight regional supply for refined petroleum products produced during the middle stage of the oil refining process will likely support margins, UBS explained.
Despite a -21% fall in Morgans’ target for accounting software provider Xero (as part of the broker’s Technology, Media & Gaming review) the FY26 EPS forecast rose meaningfully due to fixed cost leverage after a reduction in expense forecast for the financial year.
Given the broker's new $110 target for Xero implied around 30% upside to the latest share price, the rating was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
Both asset manager Navigator Global Investments and buy now pay later services provider Zip Co appear in the tables for positive change to target and earnings.
Navigator posted ownership-adjusted assets under management (AUM) growth of 9% in the third quarter, while Partner AUM was up 16.5%, underpinned by the Georgian acquisition, explained Macquarie.
While performance fee momentum remains supported, UBS felt mix shifts toward lower-margin managed accounts may temper earnings.
Morgans considers the stock well positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in global alternative asset markets.
Despite a tough macroeconomic environment in the US, Zip Co’s bad debts remain low and the company posted better-than-expected March quarter earnings.
As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/21/zip-co-riding-out-the-storm/, some 40% of the company’s total transaction value is being spent on household goods, 10% on food & beverage, and between 6%-7% on insurance and utilities, which provides a level of defensiveness, according to UBS.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.52%, with Sell ratings at just 6.85%, leaving 26.63% on Neutral/Hold.
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