Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday May 11 to Friday May 15, 2026
Total Upgrades: 3
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.08%; Hold 27.30%; Sell 6.61%
For the week ending Friday, May 15, 2026, FNArena recorded three upgrades and seven downgrades from seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
In a developing trend, falls in target prices (valuations) and earnings forecasts materially outweigh increases for the fourth successive week.
The Australian share market is experiencing a trend of net downgrades, which also corresponds with companies like CSL and Cochlear issuing profit warnings, while others, such as CommBank and its peers, release underwhelming market updates.
Though, as also shown in FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor, not all market updates are negative: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
Salary packaging and novated leasing services provider Smartgroup Corp’s average target rose by around 9% last week after a trading update in the prior week revealed novated leasing orders had increased by 22% year-on-year and settlements rose 7%, driven by electric vehicle demand.
Battery electric vehicles now account for 59% of new orders, supported by higher fuel prices and policy certainty, Ord Minnett observed. While yields softened slightly, it's noted volume growth and revenue momentum remain solid.
Management was also pleased to see the Government “reaffirm its commitment to the Electric Car Discount Policy” given policy certainty is important to maintaining strong EV uptake and provides confidence for manufacturers and charging providers to invest.
Certainly, policy clarity supported a higher FY27 multiple of 16.0x (from 13.0x) from the analyst at Macquarie.
Network-as-a-service and infrastructure-as-a-service provider Megaport follows next with a near 7% jump in average target after announcing a major contract win for its Latitude business, providing strong validation of the company’s expansion into AI infrastructure beyond core connectivity, Morgan Stanley suggested.
The company also appears among those with declining average earnings forecasts. This reflects the fact the contract wins are expected to support upgrades from FY27 onwards. FY26 is about to end and carries the costs and expenses first.
A full account of analysts' views on Megaport will be available in an article on the FNArena website later this week.
Average targets also rose for Macquarie Group, Dyno Nobel and News Corp. Commentary on reporting ‘beats’ by these three companies is available in the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/15/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-15-05-2026/.
A more detailed account of analysts'views on Dyno Nobel’s interim results is also available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/14/new-look-dyno-nobels-explosive-first-half/, and for News Corp’s quarterly update at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/13/news-corp-en-route-for-record-fy26-profit/
Macquarie Group appears second for positive change to average earnings forecasts, behind medical device manufacturer ImpediMed.
ImpediMed’s 12% rise in FY26 forecast is heavily impacted by the small numbers involved.
The company, which develops devices for non-invasive fluid measurement in the body, received a near -40% cut in average target price following a placement of $13m at 1c per share with an additional $2m raised via a share purchase plan.
Ord Minnett suggested the fourth quarter will be a transformational period for the company following its capital raise, new CEO appointment and implementation of a cost-out program exceeding -$5m.
The cost-out program comprises headcount reductions, relocating certain roles to Australia from the US, and broader cost savings initiatives, Bell Potter explained.
While this program is seen as encouraging, the path to breakeven still depends on revenue growth, this analysts cautioned.
Automotive aftermarket parts and services company Bapcor received the largest cut (-47%) in average target following a -5% downgrade in FY26 earnings guidance (yet another one) with management blaming challenging trading conditions arising from higher interest rates and the Middle East war.
Macquarie observed the trend deteriorated over the course of April, with weaker conditions now expected to remain over FY26 as lower consumer and business confidence weigh on consumer sentiment. Higher costs and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar provided additional headwinds.
Citi lowered its target for Bapcor to 40c from 76c and downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
This broker noted risks around balance sheet metrics with slower-than-expected inventory reduction and potential covenant pressure despite temporary relief from lenders.
CSL’s -31% fall in average target is explained at length in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/13/csl-challenges-pile-on-wheres-the-upside/ The company's average FY26 earnings forecast rose by nearly 2% last week because the bulk of broker downgrades impacted FY27 and beyond.
Online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster, software services provider Gentrack Group, and GrainCorp also received material reductions in target prices last week.
Temple & Webster’s trading update last week showed revenue and earnings are tracking toward the lower end of guidance, below consensus expectations.
Given the deteriorating macro backdrop, Macquarie lowered its target to $4.75 from $13.70 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, having lost confidence in management’s ability to achieve the scale required to deliver operating leverage over the next 12 months.
Citi, which lowered its target by -$2.40 to $5.60, suggested a greater focus on profitability over growth may pressure valuation multiples and reinforce concerns around management's ability to grow revenue and margins simultaneously.
This concentration on profitability was seen as a positive by Overweight-rated Morgan Stanley, given it has driven record April earnings and improved operating leverage, positioning FY27 earnings materially ahead of expectations even in a low-growth environment.
Management at Gentrack lowered its FY26 earnings guidance to around -50% below the consensus estimate, observed Ord Minnett.
The downgrade is a reflection of delays in second generation (G2) pipeline conversion (for its billing and customer management software) and weaker non-recurring project revenue.
The range of outcomes for Gentrack remains wide. Morgan Stanley noted material new contracts and G2 traction underpin a compelling bull case, but contract losses, lack of reference customers, and pipeline uncertainty suggest scope for further deleverage.
Agribusiness company GrainCorp reiterated FY26 guidance for underlying earnings and underlying net profit after tax despite challenging seasonal conditions across northern NSW and Queensland.
While management explained elevated working capital is expected to unwind during 2H26, supporting a recovery in core net cash, Macquarie highlighted weaker operating cash flow and the absence of a special dividend, reflecting a more uncertain outlook.
Morgans’ outlook for the FY27 winter crop is similarly cautious given cost pressures and the dry weather outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.
GrainCorp's strategic assets are worth materially more than the current share price, in this broker’s view. However, with earnings expected to decline again in FY27 and limited near-term catalysts, Morgans' target is reduced to $5.62 from $6.76 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
Uranium miner Paladin Energy received the most material reduction in average earnings forecast from analysts after releasing March quarter financials.
The -US$3m loss surprised, with shares falling -12% following the ASX release.
Sell-rated Ord Minnett anticipated the loss would widen to -US$46m in the June half, as guidance points to significantly higher June quarter operational costs.
A further negative surprise for the broker were administrative, depreciation and amortisation, and selling costs, which were well above estimates.
Coronado Global Resources is next on the list after revealing first quarter saleable production was negatively impacted by weather disruptions.
Management is implementing initiatives to lift productivity. Ord Minnett anticipated operating conditions would improve in coming quarters, supporting a more sustainable performance through the remainder of 2026.
The Hold-rated broker lowered its target for Coronado by -10c to 26c.
Life360’s average earnings forecast for FY26 fell by circa -25%. This week, FNArena will be publishing an article explaining why strong first quarter revenue and earnings were insufficient to dispel market concerns around monthly active users.
Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.08%, with Sell ratings at just 6.61%, leaving 27.30% on Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0
Codan's DTC UxV radios, used in unmanned aerial vehicles, are the largest and fastest-growing of the UxV segment and opportunities are expanding across other platforms including ground and marine communications, Macquarie observes.
Recent conflicts have underscored the future of warfare is increasingly reliant on these systems. The broker also notes budget allocations to these systems are growing across almost all defence forces.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifted to $44.20 from $42.00. The FY26 results are due August 20.
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Macquarie has upgraded Inghams Group to Neutral from Underperform with an unchanged target of $1.80 post the Investor Day.
Management reiterated guidance for FY26 which was viewed positively and reflected an ability to navigate inflationary pressures.
Strategically, the focus is on a better product mix with growth segments such as free range, organic, convenience nutrition and experience singled out by management.
The analyst ponders how challenging it will be to attract customers to differentiated products in higher value categories when the market is used to private label produce.
Earnings growth will continue to be boosted by better cost of production as well as improvements across the supply chain and yield factors.
Earnings forecasts are tweaked higher by 2% for FY26-FY28.
NEWS CORPORATION ((NWS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0
News Corp posted US$343m in EBITDA in the March quarter, up 18% and ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker notes the business is executing on AI content licensing deals, reinforcing the proprietary nature of its data.
The main contributor to the result was digital real estate services, accounting for 11 percentage points of the EBITDA growth. News media underperformed, with lower UK earnings amid costs for the California Post launch.
Macquarie envisages content licensing deals with AI platforms are a big opportunity. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target rises to $46.25 from $44.40.
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