Technicals | 10:52 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates.
First Up, Nasdaq100
From its late-March low of 22,841, the Nasdaq100 launched a powerful 35% rally in just over nine weeks to reach a record high of 30,762 in early June.
The move was in line with our bullish outlook back in mid-April, although it hit the 30,000 target some six months earlier than we had anticipated.
The correction since then into the 28,000ish support area in late July has played out largely as expected and the subsequent 10% rally increases confidence in the view the correction from the 30,762 high is likely complete at the recent 27,176 capitulation low and the uptrend has resumed.
Confidence would increase again on a sustained break above trend channel resistance at 30,300ish.
In summary; provided the Nasdaq100 remains above the recent 27,176 clearing event low, we are looking for a retest and break of the 30,762-record high, with scope towards 32,000.
ASX200
The ASX200 spent the better part of 17 weeks confined within an 8500–9000 range before releasing that pent-up energy at the start of August.
Providing the index remains above the top of its former range at 9000, which now becomes support, the ASX200 has scope to continue higher towards 9350.
However, with reporting season picking speed and with more bombs than beats expected, we would not be at all surprised if we were to see a retest of the 9000 support in the coming weeks.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$83.23 (up 1.13%).
Its gain’s extended after Iran’s newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, made clear that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts Tehran’s conditions, including an end to the regional war and the release of frozen assets.
With both sides digging in and oil still leaking through the blockades via overland bypasses and informal channels, the market remains suspended between the risk of tighter supply and the comfort of workarounds.
While this status quo holds, look for crude oil to trade a US$75.00-US$95.00 type range.
Gold
Gold finished lower overnight at US$4368 (-0.50%) retreating from an intraday high of US$4435 on profit-taking ahead of tonight’s US CPI report, continued hawkish Fed speak and higher energy prices.
The retreat came from ahead of downtrend resistance around US$4460ish (from the late January US$5602 high), reinforced by the 200-day moving average at US$4495.
Gold needs to see a sustained break above both of these levels to open the way for a stronger recovery towards US$5000.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views.
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