Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday August 10 to Friday August 14, 2026
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.61%; Hold 28.66%; Sell 6.73%
For the week ending Friday, 14 August 2026, the second week of the August reporting season, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued nine ratings upgrades and seventeen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
The bourse itself received three ratings downgrades from separate brokers, and Amcor and Charter Hall Retail REIT received two apiece, following a respective ‘beat’, ‘miss’ and ‘in-line’ result, according to FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/08/14/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-14-08-2026/
Declines in average target prices for the week slightly outweigh increases.
Metallurgical coal producer Coronado Global Resources’ consensus target fell by -28% after reporting a first half underlying loss of -US$241m, a ‘miss’ of -20% against the consensus estimate, as explained in the commentary section of the Results Monitor.
Chalice Mining appears next with a -16% fall in average target. This is solely attributable to broker Morgans dropping from FNArena's coverage due to the absence of new research since early January.
The -14% fall in Arena REIT’s target reflected broker reactions to its third-largest tenant, Edge Early Learning, failing to pay its monthly rent due on August 3. Arena REIT has postponed its result release in response.
Arena develops, owns and manages social infrastructure properties, primarily early learning centres and healthcare facilities.
Edge Early Learning failed to pay rent due on August 3, prompting Arena to issue a default notice the following day. This followed Edge’s unsuccessful request for rent abatement on July 31.
Edge accounts for around 14% of Arena’s annual rental income. Morgan Stanley notes the REIT has some protection through three to four months of bank guarantees and security deposits.
Arena has now been affected by financial or operational difficulties at two major tenants this year, G8 Education in April and now Edge Early Learning.
Ord Minnett downgraded its rating for Arena to Hold from Buy, believing the Edge development is likely to dampen investor appetite for exposure to early learning centres in the near term.
Australian renewable energy and carbon abatement company LGI’s consensus target fell -11% after Buy-rated Bell Potter lowered its target to $3.20 from $4.50 on materially lower electricity pricing projections.
The company’s FY26 result is expected to reflect weaker wholesale electricity prices across the National Electricity Market (NEM), partly cushioned by its circa 75% hedge book.
Despite near-term pricing pressure, Bell Potter remains positive on LGI’s development pipeline and battery energy storage system (BESS) rollout, with operating capacity expected to more than triple within two years.
On the flipside, Treasury Wine Estates, James Hardie Industries and Computershare appear atop the week's ranking for positive change in targets with rises of 17%,11% and 9%, respectively.
The Monitor explains the reasons behind the ‘in-line’ performance for Computershare and the outperformance against expectations by both Treasury Wine and James Hardie.
For more detail on the latter: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/08/10/weak-market-but-james-hardie-is-confident/
While rises in average earnings forecasts outpace falls in the tables below, the comparison is no longer like-for-like.
Some upward/downward revisions reflect brokers rolling their financial models forward to FY27 and beyond following the release of FY26 results.
While adjudged a ‘miss’ in the Monitor following second quarter results, Life360’s average FY26 earnings forecast rose strongly post the event with Morgan Stanley being much more positive than others.
All seven brokers in the FNArena database are Buy equivalent rated on the company.
Morgan Stanley believes full-year monthly active user growth forecasts are achievable, with a 35:65 first-half/second-half skew and promising early third-quarter momentum.
This broker also see potential for improved conversion to materially accelerate growth in the higher-margin subscription business.
FY26 cash net profit from Suncorp Group came in ahead of expectations amid higher reserve releases and capital returns were stronger than expected, resulting in a 29% lift in average earnings forecast by brokers.
Positive earnings revisions for previously discussed Amcor and Computershare precede a 12% rise in average earnings forecast for Canadian uranium development and exploration company NexGen Energy.
The rise in earnings forecast for NexGen appears at odds with the -9% fall in average target price in the table below.
While the Monitor sees second-quarter results and the outlook as ‘in-line’, Morgans materially revised its valuation assumptions, lowering its target to $15.60 from $20.80.
The broker consequently downgraded its rating to Accumulate from Buy.
In contrast, Buy-rated UBS trimmed its target to $18.50 from $19.50, noting the company’s progress evolved well over the second quarter.
This broker listed upcoming positives including the 13 August groundbreaking ceremony at flagship Rook I uranium project in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, centred on the high-grade Arrow deposit, and the release of Patterson Corridor East (PCE) drilling results.
For negative earnings revisions, here Australian shipbuilder and defence prime contractor Austal tops the list with a large percentage fall.
Management announced it expects a US FY26 EBIT loss of -$113m versus consensus for a $110m profit after recognising a non-cash provision against legacy US contractual claims.
In Australasia, Macquarie noted a record profit and suggested the outlook continues to improve.
Separately, management announced the receipt of a non-binding offer from Korean-based Hanwha to acquire Austal's US operations.
Citi viewed this bid positively, given execution risks around several early-stage defence programs and the historical challenges in managing the business.
Uranium miner Paladin Energy and diagnostic imaging and radiology services provider Integral Diagnostics appear third and fourth for negative change to average earnings forecast.
Paladin’s change resulted from adjustments to Morgan Stanley’s forecasts prior to FY26 results, while Integral released a trading update ahead of FY26 results on August 25.
For Integral, management expects FY26 revenue of between $788m-$790m and operating EBITDA of $164m-$165m, both below forecasts by Bell Potter and consensus.
Bell Potter suggested benefits from MRI licence deregulation are taking longer to emerge, particularly in Victoria, while pricing and currency may also have affected the New Zealand business.
Both Bell Potter and Ord Minnett see re-rating potential for the Integral stock price, while Macquarie also highlighted several supportive aspects going forward including MRI deregulation and CT lung cancer screening.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 64.99% of the total, versus 28.23% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.78%.
Upgrade
AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/2
Ord Minnett upgrades AGL Energy to an Accumulate from a Hold with a lower target of $11.25 from $11.75.
AGL's FY26 underlying NPAT was broadly in line with expectations, the analyst observes and 26c final dividend takes FY26 distributions to 50c. The higher 55%-60% payout target for FY27 should support increased dividend forecasts.
Customer Markets performed well, and operating costs were held flat despite inflation, although lower wholesale electricity prices and higher gas costs continue to pressure generation earnings.
FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of $470-$670m is around 3% above consensus at the midpoint and is viewed as conservative, with near-term electricity market pressures largely incorporated.
FY27 EPS forecasts are lowered by -5.7% but rise in FY28 and FY29 by 0.5% and 7.3%, respectively.
AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/0
On further inspection post the Hanwha announcement and trading update, as outlined below, Citi lifts the target price to $5.07 from $4.50 and upgrades the stock to Neutral from Sell.
Forecasts now reflect the FY26 earnings (EBIT) loss of -$113m. FY27 and FY28 forecasts remain unchanged.
***
Citi views Hanwha's indicative US$1.05-US$1.20bn offer for Austal's US operations positively, given execution risks around several early-stage defence programs and the historical challenges managing the business.
At the offer midpoint, the broker estimates Austal's remaining Australasian operations are valued at around 8.6x FY26 EBIT, which is considered undemanding given the defence pipeline.
Management announced it expects a FY26 EBIT loss of -$113m versus consensus for a $110m profit after recognising a non-cash provision against legacy US contractual claims.
The analyst notes Australasian FY26 EBIT of $62m is well ahead of $48m consensus, although Citi expects margins to ease in FY27 as new programs ramp up.
Sell retained with a $4.50 target.
AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Avita Medical's 2Q26 revenue rose 18% to a record US$21.7m, ahead of Bell Potter's US$20.0m forecast, supported by stronger Recell volumes and growth from Cohealyx and PermeaDerm.
The analyst points to improved cost and cash profile, with operating expenses down -6%, the EBIT loss narrowing to -US$6.9m and cash use falling to -US$3.2m from -US$9.9m in 1Q26.
FY26 revenue guidance was upgraded to US$86m–US$89m from US$80m–US$85m, while management expects cash flow breakeven in 4Q26, Bell Potter forecasts breakeven in FY27 and notes funding risk remains.
Earnings (EBIT) forecasts are raised by 12% in FY26, and FY27 lowered by 13% and raises FY28 by 13%, with improved operating leverage expected as revenue scales.
Bell Potter upgrades to Speculative Buy and lifts its target to $2.10 from $1.20.
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