SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED (SM1)
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SM1 - SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Dairy
Year End: July
GICS Industry Group : Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Debt/EBITDA: 7.44
Index:

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$0.21

02 Jul
2024

-0.005

OPEN

$0.22

-2.33%

HIGH

$0.22

92,739

LOW

$0.20

TARGET
$0.47 123.8% upside
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
A2M . BFC . BGA . BUB . FSF . NUC . NUC . TFL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
SM1: 1
Title FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) - 10.4 xxx
DPS (cps) 0.0 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio N/A xxx
Dividend Yield 0.0% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) N/A xxx
This company reports in NZD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 0.00%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 0.00

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages
HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.8
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,210.7 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx334.0
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-4.5 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.07 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.85 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.37 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-0.86 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.85 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.68 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-49.5 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx230 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx204 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx434 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.45

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx59.7 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.93 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,116 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx87 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

3
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxxx

-

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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UBS

05/06/2024

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

-

-

UBS downgrades Synlait Milk to Neutral from Buy, applying a -85% discount to book value (largely in line with the market), to reflect the increased likelihood the company will choose to switch to an equity raising (from asset sales) to deleverage.

The broker still expects the company to post a strong earnings recovery out past FY25 but UBS now spies higher medium-term risk from lower milk supply from FY26 onwards given the company has observed a strong majority of farmer suppliers have submitted cessation notices.

And the risks keep rising. The company has downgraded earnings (EBITDA) guidance to the low end of guidance; and has taken a recent NZ$130m shareholder loan from Bright Dairy to meet the company's prepayment obligations to senior lenders in July.

Hence the growing likelihood of an equity raising, which UBS estimates at NZ$180m (from the previous estimate of NZ$100m) at a -40% discount, triggering a -48% cut in the broker's FY26 EPS forecast.

Target price falls to NZ45c from NZ85c.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.02 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >

SM1 STOCK CHART

FNArena News on SM1

1
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 07-06-24

Jun 11 2024 - Weekly Reports
2
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 05-04-2024

Apr 05 2024 - Australia
3
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 25-01-24

Jan 29 2024 - Weekly Reports
4
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 29-09-2023

Sep 29 2023 - Australia
5
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 26, 2023

Sep 26 2023 - Daily Market Reports

Latest Dairy News

1
Buy Call For a2 Milk

Mar 21 2024 - Technicals
2
A2 Milking It

Feb 21 2024 - Australia
3
Treasure Chest: Bega Cheese

Oct 18 2022 - Treasure Chest
4
a2 Milk Pumps Up Growth Expectations

Oct 29 2021 - Australia
5
Bega Cheese: Melting Up?

Jun 01 2021 - Technicals
6
Synlait Milk Eyes Recovery, But Risks Remain

May 26 2021 - Australia
7
A2 Milk At A Crossroad In China?

Apr 22 2021 - Australia
8
Sales Slowdown Hits a2 Milk Guidance

Dec 21 2020 - Australia
9
Uncertainty Prevails For Synlait Milk

Sep 30 2020 - Small Caps
10
Daigou Drought Sours a2 Milk Outlook

Sep 29 2020 - Australia