Australian Broker Call

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November 04, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
PAR - Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
AMC  AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $16.11

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor's September-quarter update was largely in line with expectations and guidance has been reiterated.

Credit Suisse believes Amcor has been at the forefront of managing raw material inflation and the stock is trading at an appropriate earnings premium to its peer group.

In flexibles, the company has recovered costs with price increases while the rigids division is operating at full capacity because of high demand combined with supply constraints.

Neutral rating and $17.20 target maintained.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $1.09
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.57 cents and EPS of 107.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.19 cents and EPS of 114.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie makes no material changes to its forecasts after Amcor reported September-quarter underlying EPS of US17.7cps versus the consensus estimate for US17cps. It's thought Flexibles performed strongly despite rising raw material costs.

Management reiterated FY22 guidance for EPS growth of 7%-11% (constant currency terms). The analyst expects the US industry-wide supply-change troubles will improve in the second half.

Outperform rating is unchanged. Target price eases to $18 from $18.02.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $1.89
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.32 cents and EPS of 106.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.91 cents and EPS of 110.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley welcomes Amcor's quarterly update, which it considers solid despite the challenges of raw material constraints. The broker finds value in the defensive nature of the company, high single-digit earnings growth and the active buyback.

Earnings forecasts are broadly unchanged for FY22-23, the broker expecting 8.4% constant currency growth in FY22. Softer margins are expected on higher revenue.

Target price falls to $19 from $20. Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $2.89
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.59 cents and EPS of 107.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 64.92 cents and EPS of 109.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Amcor's September-quarter EPS proved a 3% beat on UBS's estimate and consensus forecasts. Significant challenges posed by a shortage of raw materials were overcome by strong cost control/Bemis synergies and a favourable product mix, explains the analyst.

The broker points to a strong Flexibles performance (the earnings margin was in-line with the previous corresponding period), despite forking out about an extra US$210m for raw materials. EPS guidance was maintained.

UBS lowers its target to $18.83 from $18.93. Buy-rated.

Target price is $18.83 Current Price is $16.11 Difference: $2.72
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.59 cents and EPS of 108.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 64.92 cents and EPS of 115.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $1.18

UPDATED

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi welcomes AMP's divestment of the 19.13% stake in Resolution Life given it provides much-needed capital ahead of the de-merger.

Yet this also removes about -$30m of after-tax investment earnings that are anticipated for FY22, instigating a significant downgrade to the broker's forecasts.

The net proceeds to be paid to AMP by Resolution Life are $141m. The company is confident of proceeding with the de-merger of the private markets business over the first half. Neutral/High Risk rating maintained. Target price is $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 258.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP has sold its 19.13% equity interest in Resolution Life Australasia for $524m.

Macquarie feels the deployment of these funds will be of more relevance to future earnings than the transaction itself. The broker remains cautious. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price rises to $1.12 from $1.10. The deal is due to close in 1H22.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 258.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and $1.20 target price following the sale of AMP's 19% stake in Resolution Life for $524m.

The analyst is concerned some capital may be used to service other needs but says the funds are potentially positive if used for infrastructure growth opportunities.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 258.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB  BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $10.30

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Brambles with a Buy rating and $11.75 target price.

The broker believes near-term headwinds are already incorporated into an overly depressed share price. Operating leverage is expected from automation/digitisation initiatives.

The analyst notes surcharges are in place to combat the inflationary impact from lumber and transport. Earnings are expected to be supported by defensive revenues from exposure to food and beverage (F&B), fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and staples.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $1.45
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.48, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.16 cents and EPS of 50.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.95 cents and EPS of 51.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.6, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP  DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $142.30

UPDATED

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Domino's Pizza Enterprises' downside risks are rising in the December quarter as cost pressures build, despite better top-line momentum.

Same-store sales growth in the first 18 weeks of FY22 were 4.3%, implying an acceleration from the first seven weeks.

Surprisingly, its Japanese business has slowed since restrictions were eased at the end of September, sales sliding. Citi maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target price to $144.25 from $148.70.

Target price is $144.25 Current Price is $142.30 Difference: $1.95
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.08, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 173.60 cents and EPS of 217.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.5, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 221.20 cents and EPS of 276.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.3, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 235.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates DMP as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse points to the sudden reversion in sales for Domino Pizza Enterprises in Japan in October, highlighting the difficulty in post-pandemic forecasting.

Australia and New Zealand were negatively affected by lockdowns in the September quarter despite stores re-opening ahead of expectations.

The broker is not so sure about the trajectory of a recovery, expecting labour availability could be a greater constraint than thought. Domino's expects it will exceed 365 store openings in FY22. Underperform rating maintained. Target falls to $77.73 from $82.28.

Target price is $77.73 Current Price is $142.30 Difference: minus $64.57 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.08, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 189.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.5, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.3, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 235.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' trading update for the first 18 weeks of FY22 proved mix, UBS acknowledging positive momentum but an uneven overall performance.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $132.40 from $132.50.

The broker's long-term outlook is unchanged but near term concerns persist about foreign exchange, food and energy inflation, and labour shortages. Disappointing trade in Japan after the lifting of covid restrictions has cast doubts over whether FY22 Japan sales will surpass FY21.

Target price is $132.40 Current Price is $142.30 Difference: minus $9.9 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.08, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 194.10 cents and EPS of 241.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.5, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 254.00 cents and EPS of 309.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.3, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 235.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers Domino's Pizza Enterprises FY22-24 EPS forecasts by -6.3%, -3.4% and -1.2% in response to a trading update. However, the analyst remains confident that short, medium and long-term targets for store growth will be met.

While the update for the first 18 weeks of FY22 (for network sales and same store sales growth of 8% and 4.3%) was lower than the broker expected, UBS retains a Neutral rating and $150 target price.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $142.30 Difference: $7.7
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.08, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.5, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 248.00 cents and EPS of 310.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.3, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 235.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECX  ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $2.54

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Eclipx Group's FY21 results were well ahead of expectations, cash net profit jumping 81%. Credit Suisse suspects this is largely stemming from factors that will reverse as operating conditions return to normal.

The underlying growth drivers include a recovery in new business, investment in sales capabilities and digital, and cost control. The broker raises the target price to $2.90 from $2.60 and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.36
If ECX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts FY22-24 EPS forecasts for Eclipx Group by 28.8%,14.4% and 15.2%, respectively, in response to a FY21-result beat.

The strong performance was driven by yield, lease (EOL) income and operating cost performance.

Target price rises to $2.82 from $2.69. Outperform rating retained.

While new vehicle supply shortages are expected to continue this quarter, the analyst feels the boost to EOL income and yields more than offsets these constraints. Management upsized its $40m buy-back to $56m.

Target price is $2.82 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.28
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

Eclipx Group beat estimates in FY21, posting a net profit of $86.1m. Morgan Stanley notes strong demand but says supply is the problem, and is delaying new business.

Therefore, the order backlog, at 2x pre-pandemic levels, provides a tailwind when supply normalises. No earnings guidance was provided.

The broker retains a target of $2.70. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.16
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $30.66

ADDED

UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -

UBS analysts had earlier drawn the conclusion that home high flow therapy (HFT) could potentially add a lot of additional potential to Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's path of growth, but it remains a long-term story.

That conclusion is hereby confirmed. Either way, UBS doesn't believe HFT alone is able to bridge the gap between the broker's valuation and where the share price is trading.

UBS's price target remains NZ$22.65. Rating remains Sell.

Current Price is $30.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $32.50, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 39.47 cents and EPS of 60.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.10 cents and EPS of 63.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of 1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.60

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse believes pricing is not appreciated enough when it comes to Graincorp. Fees for receiving, storing and loading increased 3.5% to 4.0% for the 2021-22 season.

The outlook for the crop looks as good as the prior year and the broker upgrades forecasts to 28mt. Target price rises to $6.35 from $6.16. A Neutral rating is maintained on valuation although the broker acknowledges upside risk.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.86 cents and EPS of 56.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 106.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 48.79 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN  KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $9.69

UPDATED

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

UBS reinstates coverage of Kogan.com with a Neutral rating and a target price of $10, down from $15.10. The broker's profit forecasts are about -20% below consensus estimates.

The analyst is concerned about rising costs for supply chain and distribution, greater reinvestment in marketing and higher customer acquisition costs. Moreover, there's expected to be additional fixed-cost investment including headcount.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.69 Difference: $0.31
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.13.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.41.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.18

UPDATED

Morgans rates KLL as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its target price on Kalium Lakes to reflect equity dilution driven by the company's $60m equity raising at $0.18 per share, which significantly exceeded the broker's expectation of $30m at $0.20 per share. 

The raising will be used to fund a $50m capacity expansion at the company's Beyondie SOP project, which reported first production last month. 

Speculative Buy rating is retained and target price decreases to $0.27 from $0.32.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.09
If KLL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.25.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD  KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation

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Overnight Price: $1.55

UPDATED

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie strives to gain a feel from results from overseas peers of Kathmandu Holdings and decides trends are broadly in-line with the broker's expectations. Neutral rating and $1.50 target price are maintained.

Despite supply-chain pressures constraining sales for US outdoor sales, data on US surf wholesale suggests less pressure for this sub-sector, and the analyst even sees a potential upside surprise.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.64 cents and EPS of 9.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.52 cents and EPS of 12.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $4.42

UPDATED

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

Citi considers Link Administration's five-year aspirational targets are ambitious and, if achieved, could result in significant upside to earnings estimates. Scepticism is likely to prevail, the broker suspects, as the business needs to grow at far superior rates to those achieved since listing.

The broker calculates that about 16% of the targeted revenue growth will be derived from acquisitions while a more than doubling of EBIT should be achieved through operating leverage. Neutral maintained. Target is $4.75.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.33
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

Link Administration has outlined growth aspirations for FY21-26, forecasting revenue growth of 8%-10% and an EBIT margin of 16%-18%. Credit Suisse observes these targets are materially ahead of the FY21 results and its estimates.

Hence, the market is expected to assign some scepticism to the targets prior to execution. Growth sources include organic member growth, super-fund consolidation, cross selling, and investment in the UK registry and global share-plans platforms.

Outperform retained. Target is $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.88
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.13 cents and EPS of 23.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

Following the release of aspirational targets for revenue and earnings (EBIT) margins by Link Administration Holdings, Macquarie lifts its target price to $6.70 from $5.80. While cautious on execution, the analyst feels the company is materially undervalued.

No guidance was provided. The broker expects a trading update at the AGM on November 23.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $2.28
If LNK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates LNK as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett thinks the market will reward Link Administration Holdings' actions over the impressive long-dated growth targets set at its investor day. The broker retains its Accumulate rating and $5 target price.

Ultimately, the business needs to benefit from the abatement of the many industry-wide headwinds of the last two years, suggests the analyst.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.58
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAR  PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $2.53

UPDATED

Morgans rates PAR as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals has announced US FDA clearance for its knee osteoarthritis major trial, Morgans noting 65 trial sites have been identified across the US and Australia. Patient screening has started in Australia, and will start in the US by year-end. 

The broker sees downside risk to the now narrower marketability given likely trial protocol changes to gain FDA acceptance. Additionally, trial patient screening could be a lengthier process, and the broker awaits updates on trial timelines and costs in the near term.

Morgans downgrades to Reduce from Hold given recent share-price strength. Target price of $1.68 is retained.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.87.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.54.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDL  PENDAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.74

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

Recent outflows from Pendal Group have been disappointing but Morgan Stanley believes this is temporary.

The broker assesses the TSW acquisition should drive upgrades to earnings to the tune of 20% in FY22-23. This will add $33bn in funds under management and there is little overlap of funds or clients with existing US business.

The broker likes the diversity and longer term growth options and finds the stock's valuation compelling.

Overweight rating is retained. Target price rises to $9.00 from $8.50. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $2.26
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.43, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.0, implying annual growth of 25.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $89.70

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Turquoise Hill (51% owned by Rio Tinto) has provided an update on its underground expansion, highlighting delays related to negotiations with the Mongolian government and disruptions from the pandemic.

A six-month delay is expected ahead of ramp-up, and first production from the undercut is anticipated in the first half of 2023. The company repeated its view that funding requirements will rise to US$3.6bn.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating, $101 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $89.70 Difference: $11.3
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.43, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 994.97 cents and EPS of 1637.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1795.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1364.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 666.40 cents and EPS of 1087.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1132.3, implying annual growth of -36.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 807.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.91

UPDATED

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Although Regis Resources had flagged a soft September quarter, results were below Morgans' expectations, production falling -11% quarter-on-quarter and costs rising 10%.

Regis Resources maintained full-year guidance but Morgans decreases gold-production forecasts for FY22.

While maintenance was planned for the quarter, post-maintenance production was slow given geotechnical remediation work, while a challenging labour market has spurred cost and production concerns.

Despite challenges, Morgans continues to feel the company is undervalued by the market. Add rating is retained. Target price decreases to $3.03 from $3.93.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $1.12
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 54.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of -9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $11.35

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett adjusts its financial model for Suncorp Group to incorporate recent storms across Australia and concludes that its Hold rating and $14.21 target price should remain unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.21 Current Price is $11.35 Difference: $2.86
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.40, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of -10.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR  TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $3.45

UPDATED

Morgans rates TYR as Add (1) -

Tyro Payments' reported year-to-date gross profit in October of about $38m.

Morgans is concerned full-year guidance of $159m is a stretch despite an ability to ramp up activity once restrictions ease. FY22 and FY23 earnings per share are downgraded more than -10%.

The broker notes a gap between transaction growth (up 25%) and gross profit growth (up 14%), which drove a heavy fall in the share price, was due to Bendigo Bank Alliance revenue share reducing gross profit. Excluding revenue share deduction, gross profit growth would be 22%.

Add rating is retained. Target price decreases to $4.25 from $4.46.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.8
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 127.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 492.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 300.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Following Tyro Payments' trading update, Ord Minnett believes the business is well positioned to benefit from a recovery trade and raises its target price to $4.30 from $4.20. The broker increases its forecast FY22 total transaction value (TTV) by 2%.

The analyst points out the average of 1,259 new merchant applications per month for the first four months of FY22 was a solid result given the length of covid disruptions. Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.85
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 172.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 172.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 300.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $10.70

UPDATED

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

While maintaining an outlook consistent with that held at August results, Worley says positive indicators are pointing to an improved performance in 2H22 and beyond, and expects FY22 profit to exceed that of the previous corresponding period (pcp).

Macquarie forecasts 1H22 profit of $110m, up 39% on the pcp, driven by improved margins from cost-out. While shares remain substantially de-coupled from the oil price, it's thought contract wins (with a renewables bias) will partly close the gap.

Outperform rating and $12.25 target price are maintained.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: $1.55
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.90 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of 287.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 57.90 cents and EPS of 76.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates WOR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley says Worley provides limited guidance at the AGM. The company still expects the first half to be commensurate with its recent performance. The broker forecasts underlying net profit of $159m in the first half.

Morgan Stanley expects Worley will trade a little higher if oil prices continue to rise but remains cautious about earnings growth over the short term as expenditure on traditional business is not rising materially.

Equal-weight rating and $11 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: $0.3
If WOR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.03 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of 287.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 57.17 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AMC Amcor $16.57 Macquarie 18.00 18.02 -0.11%
Morgan Stanley 19.00 20.00 -5.00%
UBS 18.83 18.93 -0.53%
AMP AMP $1.19 Macquarie 1.12 1.10 1.82%
BXB Brambles $10.41 Ord Minnett 11.75 12.55 -6.37%
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises $115.90 Citi 144.25 148.70 -2.99%
Credit Suisse 77.73 82.28 -5.53%
Macquarie 132.40 132.50 -0.08%
ECX Eclipx Group $2.58 Credit Suisse 2.90 2.60 11.54%
Macquarie 2.82 2.69 4.83%
GNC GrainCorp $6.69 Credit Suisse 6.35 6.16 3.08%
KGN Kogan.com $9.50 UBS 10.00 15.10 -33.77%
KLL Kalium Lakes $0.18 Morgans 0.27 0.32 -15.62%
LNK Link Administration $4.32 Macquarie 6.70 5.80 15.52%
PDL Pendal Group $6.95 Morgan Stanley 9.00 8.50 5.88%
RIO Rio Tinto $88.59 Morgan Stanley 101.00 110.00 -8.18%
RRL Regis Resources $1.90 Morgans 3.03 3.93 -22.90%
TYR Tyro Payments $3.31 Morgans 4.25 4.46 -4.71%
Ord Minnett 4.30 4.20 2.38%
WOR Worley $10.37 Morgan Stanley 11.00 11.30 -2.65%
Summaries
AMC Amcor Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.11
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.11
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.11
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $16.11
AMP AMP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.18
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.18
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.18
BXB Brambles Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.30
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $142.30
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $142.30
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $142.30
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $142.30
ECX Eclipx Group Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.54
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.54
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.54
FPH Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Sell - UBS Overnight Price $30.66
GNC GrainCorp Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.60
KGN Kogan.com Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.69
KLL Kalium Lakes Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.18
KMD Kathmandu Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.55
LNK Link Administration Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.42
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.42
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.42
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.42
PAR Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.53
PDL Pendal Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.74
RIO Rio Tinto Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $89.70
RRL Regis Resources Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.91
SUN Suncorp Group Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.35
TYR Tyro Payments Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.45
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.45
WOR Worley Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.70
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.70
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

14

5. Sell

3

Thursday 04 November 2021

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.