Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 19-12-25

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This story features BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday December 15 to Friday December 19, 2025
Total Upgrades: 4
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 62.01%; Hold 30.16%; Sell 7.83%

Stockbroking analysts are winding down as the end of year approaches. This will be the final update for 2025.

Not unexpected, the numbers of upgrades and downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed companies has sharply reduced, though there’s still plenty of activity (even in the face of a rather lacklustre share market).

For the week ending Friday, 19th December 2025, FNArena recorded four upgrades and five downgrades.

A general sector update on Australian banks by stockbroker Morgans generated two of the upgrades (Bank of Queensland and Judo Capital) while Morgan Stanley responded to a weaker share price for cheap bling retailer Lovisa Holdings.

Treasury Wine Estates delivered yet another awful market update, but Citi analysts were brave enough to decide this might well be as bad as it gets for the former market darling of premium wines.

Citi’s upgrade (to Neutral) was countered by Ord Minnett’s downgrade where more downside scenarios are still seen as a valid option. National Storage is under take-over interest, which explains UBS’ downgrade (the share price has done its dough).

Macquarie’s analysis has spotted increased competition on the horizon for CSL, which triggered this week’s downgrade. Boss Energy’s on-the-ground troubles (pun intended) continue and triggered a downgrade from Citi.

Another pressure-cooker straggler, the ASX, has to put aside additional capital and thus flagged less dividends for shareholders. Ord Minnett downgraded to Hold in response.

The total number of Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena has now risen to 62%; that’s as high as it gets from an historical point of view (see chart below).

Neutral/Hold ratings sit above 30% and the remaining 7.83% are Sells. The latter percentage is historically extremely low.

Movements in average target prices for the week are heavily skewed to the downside, thanks to negative market updates by aforementioned Treasury Wine Estates and Boss Energy, with CSL, GrainCorp and the ASX equally lining up for the week’s negative top ten.

Netwealth is paying compensation to investors caught by the collapse of Shield and First Guardian investment funds and this places it on position ten of the week’s downward adjustments to price targets.

On the positive side of the ledger, we find Flight Centre, for which market sentiment is noticeably improving, including among analysts. Last week the company announced another acquisition and improved guidance for the year ahead.

The rest of the week’s top ten is heavily dominated by gold and copper miners as sector analysts continue to lift their pricing forecasts.

The week’s top ten for positive updates to earnings forecasts is –surprise, surprise– equally dominated by mining companies. 

The top five on the negative side, led by Treasury Wine, see hefty downgrades coming their way; the other half are hardly worth paying attention to.

Meteoric Resources and South32 are flagging to investors this year’s resurgence for the mining sector is not a guaranteed good news story for everybody in the sector.

Chalice Mining’s presence is related to stockbroker Morgans no longer updating its research and forecasts, and should thus not be taken at face value.

Upgrade

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Morgans upgrades Bank of Queensland to Accumulate from Hold due to the recent share price weakness, while tweaking EPS forecasts down by -1% for FY26 and lifting FY27 by 1%.

The analyst notes the bank’s asset base is more concentrated than its larger peers in the very competitive home lending market, but it has disadvantages in scale, funding costs and technology compared to the majors.

As the stock is now trading below the broker’s intrinsic value estimate, with an attractive yield, it has been upgraded.

Target price is raised to $7.03 from $6.87.

JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Morgans upgrades Judo Capital to Buy from Accumulate due to the recent share price weakness and lowers the FY27 EPS estimate by -3%.

The analyst notes Judo does not aim to pay dividends, as capital will be reinvested to support loan growth. While noting the bank is higher risk with no dividend yield, it is also a challenger operating entirely in the SME business banking sector.

This is expected to underpin earnings growth over FY26-FY27 and the broker reckons the stock could be worth $3 per share by the end of the decade.

Target price slips to $2.02 from $2.04.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

After reassessing its thesis, Morgan Stanley views Lovisa Holdings’  recent growth volatility as temporary rather than structural and upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight on four key drivers.

They include hard-to-replicate propositions, resilient through-cycle LFL (like-for-like) growth, upside-biased long-term store rollout, and attractive valuation after the recent pullback.

The broker reminds its forecast is for 22% EPS growth and 20% EBIT growth for FY25-28. 

Target trimmed to $38 from $42 on lower multiple in valuation to 27x from 35x, with the broker noting this is below the company’s five-year average. Industry view: In-line.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/5/0

After a full review of Treasury Wine Estates’ update and outlook, Citi cut FY26-FY28 EPS forecasts by -37% to -29%. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target trimmed to $4.80 from $5.11, with earnings cuts partly offset by a reduced P/E relative discount and lower SOTP discounts for Americas and Collective due to reduced FY26 earnings risk.

Early comments follow:

In a flash update Citi stresses the Sell rated Treasury Wine Estates has announced another noticeably weaker-than-expected trading update, with both China and the US markets deteriorating further. This is on top of a soft outlook and ongoing high inventory levels on the balance sheet.

Management has downgraded 1H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance by -31% at the consensus level to $235m, with the second half guidance suggesting it will be higher than the first half. The analyst, however, emphasises it is vague and there are material downside risks to 2H26 consensus forecasts.

Penfolds is trading down -12% below consensus, Treasury Americas guidance -55% below consensus and Treasury Collective -44% below consensus. 

See also TWE downgrade.

Downgrade

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/2

ASX notified its payout ratio will sit at the low end of its 75-85% target for at least the next three dividends as it sets aside an extra $150m of capital required by ASIC after operational and governance failings.

Ord Minnett notes the ASIC-mandated capital buffer remains until remediation is proven, following reviews citing CHESS replacement issues, outages and underinvestment.

ASX is responding via tech modernisation and an “Accelerate” risk program, likely flowing through opex rather than capex, plus new board independence requirements for clearing/settlement entities. 

The company guided to a 4-7% rise in FY26 opex plus a further 6-8.5% for ASIC compliance. The broker has modelled a $150m penalty as the ASIC legal action continues.

FY26 EPS forecasts unchanged but FY27-28 trimmed by -1.2% each. Dividend payout ratio downgraded to 75% from 85% across the forecast horizon.

Target cut to $58.60. Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Boss Energy has retracted its 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study (EFS) for the Honeymoon project after finding major issues with resource continuity, leachability and overlap of mineralisation, Citi notes.

It is now redesigning the wellfield with wider 75-100m spacing vs 40m originally, though management couldn’t cite clear operating precedents for such wide spacing.

The broker reckons this leaves permeability and lateral connectivity of the aquifer as the key risk to be tested in an updated EFS due 3Q2026.

No change to FY26 guidance, but the broker trimmed FY27 output assumptions. Target drops to $1.25 from $2.20, and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Macquarie estimates around 25% of CSL’s CIDP immunoglobulin market share is at risk from competitors, and positive Phase 3 results could worsen “ex-growth” concerns and pressure its valuation multiple.

This assessment is based on the broker’s analysis of Sanofi’s complement inhibitor riliprubart that showed strong Phase 2 CIDP efficacy with better dosing and mild side effects. Dianthus has a similar Phase 3 program, which may offer more convenient dosing, with initial results expected in 2Q2026.

The broker reckons FY26 guidance is at risk as China albumin pressures are likely to persist into 2H, despite CSL’s local expansion and demand initiatives. 

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -4% and by -5% for FY27. Target cut to $188.00 from $275.20 as the broker pivots from a DCF to a comp-based PE approach due to greater uncertainty around the company’s long-term earnings.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0

The previously confirmed offer by a consortium led by GIC-Brookfield for 100% of National Storage REIT has now progressed to a Scheme Implementation Deed.

As background, securityholders are offered $2.86 cash per security, reduced by the 6.0c 1H26 distribution. UBS notes National Storage REIT’s board unanimously recommends voting in favour, subject to no superior offer and a positive independent expert report.

Completion is targeted for April 2026, with the broker seeing low risk of the transaction breaking at this stage.

Given limited upside to the bid, target rises to $2.80 from $2.57. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/5/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Lighten from Hold due to the lack of transparency around the earnings outlook.

Target price is also reduced to $5 from $6.50 on the back of management’s 1H26 earnings downgrade to some -30% below consensus expectations. This is due to an ongoing weakness in North America and sluggish China demand, as well as Penfolds coming in well below guidance.

The broker emphasises the rebasing of earnings was also expected by the new CEO, but the scale is a surprise. America has been guided down -60% y/y for 1H26, with ongoing distribution issues in California.

Balance sheet concerns have also arisen, with 1H26 gearing at around 2.5x above the target range of 1.5x-2.0x for at least two years.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS estimates by -36.3% for FY26 and -30.7% for FY27.

See also TWE upgrade.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=228,141,182,101,255,253,173,140&h0=130,147,169,111,165,153,26,177&s0=11,23,41,50,33,33,6,32″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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