Bonds/Interest Rates

A look behind the numbers of yesterday’s NAB business confidence survey.

Wall Street traded in a narrow range last night as all markets squared up ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday.

National Bank was obviously hoping no one would pay attention if it raised its mortgage rate on a public holiday.

National Australia Bank’s quarterly business confidence survey shows further falls across all scales of business with outlooks now as weak as during the last global downturn in 2000/01.

The Fed makes its rate decision on Wednesday night amidst a wealth of US data and not much for Australia.

The FOMC is expected to go easy from here on. This is feeding through in higher prices for US shares, and for the US dollar.

While earnings and economic data were again mixed, Thursday’s session was dominated by a strong bounce in the US dollar, sparking life into financials and pressuring commodities.

Analysts struggle to find positives in what was otherwise a well-flagged result.

Following today’s 1.3% increase in the CPI, another rate rise may not be all that much of a surprise.

The Dow fell 100 points last night on US$120/bbl oil driven by a new low in the US dollar.