Tag Archives: The Overnight Report

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Yellen Afterglow

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 83 points or 0.5% while the S&P gained 0.4% to 2063 and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.

Struggling

Well the ASX200 was indeed off to the races yesterday, up 54 points from the opening bell, but very quickly it was not to last. If selling on Tuesday had anything to do with fears Janet Yellen was set to offer up a more hawkish Fed stance in her speech on Tuesday night, yesterday’s open supported that theory. But the sellers nipped everything in the bud.

By midday the index was back to square. Energy led the downside with a 1.5% drop thanks to lower oil prices while on the other side of the coin, healthcare rebounded 1.1% having had a hard time of it on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sectors traded off small moves up and down. The banks at the least managed to hold their ground.

The March quarter ends tomorrow and this must be taken into consideration in gauging market mood, given the pushing and shoving that can go on between traders squaring up and fund managers trying to window-dress returns. But we might also take into consideration that while lower for longer interest rates in the US might be good for the US, subsequent strength in the Aussie dollar acts as a brake on Australia’s export economy.

Earnings Loom

The UK and major European stock markets liked renewed Fed dovishness, as they all rose over 1.5% last night. Wall Street kicked on again from the opening bell to send the Dow up 157 points at its peak. But aside from the usual keeping half an eye on the oil price, momentum appeared to fade.

What will drive Wall Street higher from here?

The March quarter earnings season begins next month. The forecast is for a 6.9% net drop in S&P500 earnings and a 1.0% drop in revenues, which would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings growth and fifth for revenues. It makes one wonder why Wall Street managed to run as high as it did ahead of the oil price collapse.

A big factor in that 6.9% is energy losses, with materials also chiming in. The banks have also had a tough quarter. The US dollar has only more recently retreated, so currency impact will be a big feature this season. As to why Wall Street can continue to rally on negative earnings growth, we may look no further than Fed influence.

Access to cheap funding has allowed US companies to borrow to buy back their own stock, thus increasing earnings per share not through increased earnings, but through a reduced number of shares. One day, somewhere down the line, the music will stop and so will the buybacks. But this will require Fed tightening, which in turn will require a more robust US and world economic outlook.

Meanwhile, it is typical for companies to suspend their buyback programs over earnings season. Buyback programs are supposed to be market agnostic, and a company would risk insider trading allegations if it were, for example, to suddenly step up its buying ahead of announcing a Street-beating result. This means that for the next month, Wall Street will lack buyback support.

If earnings results then come in net worse than expected, there is no safety net.

Ahead of earnings we have the March non-farm payrolls numbers tomorrow night. Last night the ADP private sector report showed the addition of 200,000 jobs, just a tick down from February’s 205,000 and in line with expectation. Forecasts for non-farm payrolls are for the addition of 205,000 jobs.

Wall Street will nevertheless not pay as much attention to the actual jobs number, assuming it falls within a reasonable band of expectation, as it will wage growth. This has been the missing link in the labour market story that has helped keep the Fed on hold, despite an unemployment rate considered to be near “full employment”. A jump in wage growth would bring a June Fed rate hike back into the frame.

Commodities

The oils were initially stronger during the session but fell back towards the close. West Texas crude is down US17c at US$38.27/bbl and Brent is own US10c at US$39.26/bbl.

Anticipation of Friday’s data, which includes not only US jobs but manufacturing PMIs from across the globe, and particularly China, is keeping LME traders on the sidelines. Base metals split up and down moves last night, none of them greater than one percent.

Is iron ore beginning to succumb to reality of lower Chinese steel production? It’s down US$1.50 at US$53.20/t.

The more interesting metal, nevertheless, is gold. Gold jumped up on Tuesday night, as one might expect, on increased Fed dovishness. But the US dollar index is down 0.3% to 94.84 overnight, and gold has given back most of Tuesday night’s gain. It’s down US$17.90 to US$1224.70/oz.

A couple of months ago it looked like gold was set to challenge 1300. Ahead of the March Fed statement release, gold sold off as traders took precautionary profits. The statement was dovish, so gold rebounded, but did not manage to return to its high. On Tuesday night Yellen was even more dovish, so gold shot up, but again it did not reach the previous high. Last night, despite dollar support, gold fell back again.

Markets that cannot go up do tend to go down instead.

The Aussie dollar is up 0.4% at US$0.7667.

Today

IT would seem futures traders are determined that if the ASX200 could not push away from the gravitational pull of 5000 yesterday, it can do it today. Despite the S&P500 being up only 0.4%, and oil, iron ore and gold prices being weaker overnight, the SPI Overnight closed up 42 points or 0.8%.

Locally we’ll see private sector credit data today along with new home sales.

Rudi will make his weekly appearance on Sky Business today, 12.30-2.30pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Gradualism Rules, Eventually

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 97 points or 0.6% while the S&P gained 0.9% to 2055 as the Nasdaq jumped 1.7%.

Fed Scare?

Got the feeling you’re on a dark desert highway? Cool wind in your hair? Well, it’s probably because we’re back at 5000. Again.

On Thursday ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) announced a $100m top-up to its earlier guidance of an expected $800m of provisions to be taken against potential bad debts, with the difference specifically relating to resource sector loans. Westpac ((WBC)) chimed in with a $25m top-up against personal loans in the mining states. The market panicked and sent the bank sector down 2.5%.

After a four-day chocolate binge, the sellers were back into the banks again yesterday. In their reports, bank analysts suggested that while neither provision increase represented any material impact on earnings, they both sounded a warning bell, particularly if the commodity price rebound proved to be fleeting. The bank sector was down another 2.0% yesterday.

But was it all just about those provisions again? On Thursday, the fall in the bank sector was a stand-out. Other sectors finished comfortably in the green – healthcare and utilities fared well for example – which suggested sector rotation as bank share funds were redirected. Yesterday, however, the bank sector was merely another face in the crowd, as every sector finished in the red.

Healthcare was actually the biggest loser this time around, with a 2.6% fall. Consumer staples dropped 1.7%. The fall in telcos was more minor by comparison, but it appears more like yesterday was a day to sell Australia, which one does via the large caps resident in the likes of the banks, healthcare, supermarkets and materials (which fell 1.2%). There was no reason why sector-specific bank provisions should trigger selling in companies providing hospital beds and selling Corn Flakes.

So, bank issues aside, one might conclude that a certain level of caution was adopted ahead of last night’s speech from Fed chair Janet Yellen. Since the Fed statement was released earlier in the month and Yellen held her press conference suggesting two Fed rate hikes were now more likely in 2016 rather than the previous four touted, dissention has grown in the FOMC ranks. Even some former policy centrists had begun to push for a rate hike as soon as April.

Which suggested to the market that when Yellen spoke last night, she would likely qualify her previous musings and evoke a more hawkish stance than the Fed’s March statement had implied. Each incremental US rate increase incrementally undermines the carry trade to foreign markets with attractive rates, and the king of available yield is Australia.

So was yesterday just a square-up? Well we may find out today, given Yellen has subsequently confounded and gone completely the other way – further into the dovish corner. Technically, yesterday’s breach of 5050 for the ASX200 is a negative signal that could suggest another dip down towards 4800, but first we have to get through that concrete foundation of 5000. And the futures are up 33 points this morning.

Back in your box

Wall Street was also playing it safe ahead of Yellen’s speech. From the open, the Dow was down a hundred points.  Around half of that ground was recovered before Yellen hit the podium at 12.30pm at which point stock markets spiked, and ultimately the Dow closed up almost a hundred points. The S&P500’s gain was even more significant, pushing the index above 2050 resistance to its highest level so far for 2016.

Gradualism is the word. The Fed had been touting a gradual approach to policy normalisation all through the second half of last year before finally bowing to the market and hiking in December. Reading between the lines, it now appears Yellen wishes the Fed had never moved in December. Back then four 2016 rate hikes were suggested. Two weeks ago, that became two. After last night, it now looks like one.

Is the Fed actually in a tightening cycle, as was suggested in December, or have the chances increased that the next move in rates will actually be down again? Global risks appear to be Yellen’s main concern. And as has been noted, when every other major economy has cut its own interest rates, it is the equivalent of the US hiking anyway. Yellen is preaching caution, and on the local front, she does not believe inflation is a certainty to continue rising in the US.

That would seem to put to bed any notion of a rate rise in April, or even June. The dissenters have been silenced.

Easy policy is good for stocks. Yield stocks particularly, but not for banks. So it was that the 0.9% gain for the S&P last night was led out by the defensive yield plays, and in defiance of selling in the financial sector.

Wall Street is back to believing the only thing that matters is Fed support. This time around it’s not about extended QE but about not raising rates. With commodity prices showing some tentative signs of stabilising at these lower levels, Wall Street has now wiped out the panic of early 2016 and moved upwards once more.

Elsewhere, market moves were consistent with a more dovish Fed. The US dollar index is down 0.9% at 95.15. Gold is up US$22.70 to US$1242.70/oz. The US ten-year bond yield fell 6 basis points to 1.81%.

Only commodities bucked the trend.

Commodities

The LME reopened following the Easter break last night and official closing prices were already being marked for base metals before Janet Yellen hit the podium. The US dollar was higher at that point and trading volumes remained thin. While Yellen turned the greenback around, lacklustre interest ensured most base metals remained weak through to the kerb close.

Copper fell a percent and lead and nickel fell 1.5%. Tin fell 2.5%, while aluminium rose 1% and zinc was flat.

Iron ore fell US50c to US$54.70/t.

The oils copped 2.5% falls, which seems somewhat incongruous in the face of less chance of a Fed rate hike (which would impact on energy sector credit costs) and a weaker greenback. Oil fell because of preliminary weekly US data which showed another significant build in inventories. West Texas is down US97c to US$38.44/bbl and Brent is down US91c to US$39.36/bbl.

So much for the oil-US stock market correlation.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 33 points or 0.7%.

Will we spin around today, assuming yesterday’s cautious call has proven incorrect? A more dovish Fed does increase the possibility of the RBA having to resort to a rate cut. That would be good for the local market, and particularly those yield stocks, except for the banks.

In the meantime, the Aussie is up 1.2% at US$76.35, which is not good for healthcare and other sectors with high proportions of offshore earnings. Glenn Stevens is still expecting the Aussie to fall without prompting. Is he still so sure today?

Tonight in the US sees the March private sector jobs report, a precursor to Friday's non-farm payrolls release.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Monday Report (On Tuesday)

By Greg Peel

Thursday

Weakness in metals prices sent the local materials sector south by 1.7% on Thursday, while energy managed to hold up despite a fall in the oil price. While oil continues to fluctuate, it has pretty much been jogging on the spot for the last couple of weeks.

Only one other sector fell on Thursday, but a 2.5% plunge in the banks represents a big hit to the ASX200. Reality has bitten, with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) announcing it would take an additional $100m provision against potential bad loans to the energy sector, while Westpac is setting aside $25m to cover personal loans in the stressed mining states of Queensland and WA.

No doubt investors saw parallels with European banks, which have suffered significant share price falls this year due to exposure to energy as well as emerging markets. Throughout the year, analysts have assured their clients Australia’s banks are not onerously exposed to the resource sector, and nor are the US banks in terms of proportion of all loans. Were they wrong?

No. Panic may have emerged on Thursday but these provisions represent small numbers in the scheme of things. A provision of $25m would about cover Westpac’s board room lunch bill for the year, and even $100m for ANZ is still nothing major compared to the banks’ capital positions. All banks were nevertheless sold down on Thursday on suspicion. Provisions do, of course, reduce the earnings pool from which dividends are paid out on a ratio basis.

The sell-down for the index on Thursday was all about the banks and not a market-wide event. Sector rotation was evident, with the defensive sectors of healthcare and utilities among apparent recipients of liquidated bank shares.

Thursday Night

On Thursday night the Dow closed up 13 points while the S&P was flat at 2035 and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

Oil prices fell again early in the US session following Wednesday night’s data suggesting ever more increasing inventories, but relief was found in the weekly rig count, which posted another fall. The Dow was down 100 point at one stage and the US banks, too, suffered from energy market-related selling, but when oil turned, Wall Street returned to a flat close.

The S&P500 nevertheless closed down for the week after a five-week winning streak.

Adding to early weakness was an announced 2.8% fall in US new durable goods orders in February – the third decline in four months. While this was not actually as bad as the 2.9% decline economists had forecast, the breakdown of the data showed weakness in every major industrial sector except autos.

Having enjoyed a revival of sorts post-GFC, US manufacturing has more recently been battling against a stronger greenback, a slowing global economy and the fallout from the energy sector rout.

All of which is another reason to assume the Fed will not be raising its cash rate in April.

The US dollar index was flat at 96.11 on Thursday night and the Aussie was also little changed at US$0.7531.

West Texas crude closed down US24c at US$39.60/bbl and Brent was little changed at US$40.49/bbl.

Zinc has recently taken the mantle as the most volatile of base metals on the LME and it dropped 2.5%, while the pre-Easter session saw all other metals not much trouble the scorer.

Gold fell US$4.20 to US$1216.70/oz.

The SPI Overnight closed down 12 points or -0.2% on Friday morning.

Monday Night

Wall Street was open on Easter Monday but for many it is still a holiday period, coinciding with Spring Break. Europe was closed and trading on US exchanges was very quiet. US stocks indices meandered mildly higher during the session before a shooting incident at the Capitol building in Washington put a brief scare through the market an hour ahead of the close.

The Dow retreated to the flat line once more but as the incident was quickly contained, a modestly higher close was achieved. The Dow closed up 19 points or 0.1% while the S&P closed two points higher at 2037 and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%.

Fed chair Janet Yellen will be speaking tonight, which was another reason Wall Street was not interested in getting carried away last night. To that end, last night’s US data releases included consumer spending and inflation numbers.

Incomes rose 0.2% in February having risen 0.5% in January, while spending rose 0.1% having risen by 0.1% in January. The January spending figure was revised down from a 0.5% increase published a month ago. The personal consumption & expenditure (PCE) index fell to 1.0% year on year from 1.2% in January.

The core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, remained unchanged at 1.7% year on year, stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target.

There is nothing in those numbers to suggest the push from a cohort of FOMC members to hike in April will gain any traction. The March jobs data are due out this Friday. When Yellen speaks tonight, Wall Street will be looking for some clarification on whether the Fed chair remains the head of the US central bank, or whether she now considers herself head of the World central bank.

In other words, there is much debate in US markets as to whether it is the Fed’s role to set policy based on the state of the world economy rather than just the US economy, as is the mandate.

Other data released last night included February pending home sales, which rose 3.5%.

Oil prices are only slightly weaker last night from Thursday night with West Texas down US19c at US$39.41/bbl and Brent down US22c at US$40.27/bbl.

The London Metals Exchange was closed last night.

Over two sessions since Thursday, the spot iron ore price is down US$2.10 to US$55.20/t.

The US dollar index is slightly lower at 95.99 and the Aussie is slightly higher at US$0.7544. Gold is up US$3.20 at US$1219.90/oz.

The SPI Overnight was closed last night, leaving Thursday night’s 12 point fall as the starting point this morning.

The Week Ahead

Not a lot is expected from markets across the globe until Janet Yellen makes her speech tonight. Thursday is the end of the quarter, so there may be some pushing and shoving going on this week ahead of books close.

Books close also comes ahead of the all-important US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, being the first of the new month. That also means manufacturing PMI numbers from around the globe and both the manufacturing and services PMIs from China.

Other US data releases during the week include Case-Shiller house prices and the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence measure tonight, the ADP private sector jobs report tomorrow, Chicago PMI on Thursday and construction spending, vehicle sales and Michigan Uni’s fortnightly consumer sentiment measure on Friday, along with jobs and the manufacturing PMI.

Besides the manufacturing PMI release on Friday, Australia will see private sector credit data on Thursday along with new home sales, and house prices on Friday.

There are just a few more stocks going ex-dividend this week, across Wednesday and Thursday.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business  on Thursday (12.30-2.30pm) and again on Friday around 11.05am through Skype-link to discuss broker calls.
 

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: April Fools?

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 79 points or 0.5% while the S&P lost 0.6% to 2036 and the Nasdaq fell 1.1%.

Square Up

Talk of an April rate hike from the Fed actually emerged on Tuesday night but at the time seemed a little fanciful. It nevertheless appears such chatter has put some pressure on the Aussie dollar which over the past 24 hours has steadily declined a full 1.2% to US$0.7528 this morning. We might argue that having set itself short previously, the forex market has more recently set itself long.

There has been much talk of late that the rebound we’ve experienced in commodity prices has been overdone and has no ongoing substance, which no doubt has led to nervousness. And I have noted this past week that in the wake of last week’s central bank action, and/or lack thereof, and ahead of the US earnings season beginning next month, there has seemed little reason for stock markets to go up.

And when they can’t go up, they go down instead. Indeed, despite a slightly positive lead from the overnight futures, the ASX200 plunged 42 points pretty much from the open yesterday. All sectors were in the red and there were no particular stand-outs, suggesting market-wide selling. Possibly a Brussels reaction? Volumes are light heading into the Easter break and so there was a bit of a vacuum, but the buying interest that subsequently emerged seemed fairly half-hearted.

By the closing bell it was the resource sectors which had taken the biggest hit while the banks and healthcare suffered mild weakness. A balance was struck with some buying in consumer staples.

Expectations of a sideways drift into Easter on declining volumes can probably now be put aside. There is always an incentive to square up ahead of a four day break and the resource sectors have been the best performers these past couple of weeks. On last night’s commodity price moves, resource stocks will be looking vulnerable today.

The Inflation Argument

One Fedhead has posited that instead of holding off on a rate hike because inflation is still low, a rate hike should be implemented in order to drive inflation. It’s an upside down theory from an economics perspective, but then as they say, the first law of economists is that for every economist there is an equal and opposite economist, and the second law is that they’re both wrong.

It now appears as many as five FOMC members are agitating for an April rate hike. Janet Yellen did suggest at her press conference last week that April is still “live”, but that’s the standard line. On the strength of the Fed statement and the press conference, the bulk of the market shifted expectation to September as being the next rate hike meeting, away from June. But does the market seriously believe there could be a rate hike next month?

Well it’s better to be safe than sorry, and as I’ve noted, nervousness had crept into commodity markets over the sustainability of recent price rebounds. The US dollar index rose 0.4% last night and Wall Street started dumping resource sector stocks.

The selling was exacerbated by the release of the weekly US oil inventory data. It showed a crude stockpile addition three times larger than analysts had forecast, and the sixth straight week of stockpile increases. Gasoline stockpiles came in lower than forecast, which is positive from the demand side ahead of the US summer driving season, but on the supply side, there appears no sign of relief.

Oil probably didn’t need too much of an excuse to fall anyway. West Texas dropped 4% and US energy stocks went tumbling alongside US material stocks, which themselves were looking at hefty falls in base and precious metals prices.

So between Fed confusion, a possible peak in the commodity price rebound, a long weekend, next week’s quarter-end, and a lull before US earnings reports start to flow, Wall Street sold down last night. It was “risk-off”, as supported by the 1.1% fall in the Nasdaq, although a 79 point drop for the Dow is hardly dramatic in today’s context.

“Risk off” was also evident in the US bond market, where the ten-year bond yield fell 6 basis points to 1.88%. But hang on, if Wall Street really does believe there could be an April rate hike, the bonds have gone the wrong way.

Which probably sums up the true likelihood of an April rate hike.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US$1.60 to US$39.84 and Brent is down US$1.31 at US$40.53/bbl.

In thin pre-Easter trade, all base metals fell 1.5-2%. Copper led out with a 2% fall and dropped through the psychological US$5000/t level.

Iron ore fell US60c to US$57.30/t.

Gold is down US$25.90 at US$1225.90/oz. I would wager that the gold bugs had expected more from the Fed’s supposedly increased dovishness last week, and have now bottled.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 34 points or 0.7%.

Back in the day, the ASX used to close at lunchtime on the Thursday before Easter. While that is no longer the case, no one ever told the financial community, so don’t expect anyone much to be around this afternoon.

Westpac ((WBC)) will provide a strategy update today.

Tonight in the US its’s durable goods orders. Note that while the ASX is not open on Monday, Wall Street is. Next week’s regular Monday Report will thus cover two Wall Street sessions, and will be published on Tuesday.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

Rudi will make his weekly Thursday appearance on Sky Business from 12.20-2.30pm and re-appear tonight on Switzer TV between 7-8pm.

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Terror Returns

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 41 points or 0.2% while the S&P fell 0.1% to 2049 and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

As a Tack

“Unless you think that the commodity price trend now is different and we are headed back to a world of considerably higher prices for an extended period and we think that the Fed is never going to lift rates, it’s not clear that the situation will warrant a much higher exchange rate than this and there is a risk actually that the currency may be getting a bit ahead of itself.”

In other words, RBA governor Glenn Stevens is not overly concerned about the recent bounce in the Aussie, implying it’s likely not to last. In his speech yesterday, Stevens talked up the Australian economy, noting the data suggest a “respectable” pace of growth in the second half of 2015. But when it came to the Q&A, there was only one topic covered by questioners – the Aussie.

As Jan Brady would say, Aussie, Aussie, Aussie…

The Aussie is incidentally 0.5% higher this morning over 24 hours at US$0.7617. The currency took quite a dip ahead of Stevens’ speech as traders no doubt squared any longs, expecting a bout of so-called “jawboning” intended to talk the Aussie down. The lack of any real mandible from the RBA governor was thus worth a more substantial bounce.

Meanwhile over on Bridge Street, nothing happened. With the ASX200 closing on a 0.00% move -- something you don’t see too often – one would be forgiven for thinking everyone has already left for the Easter break. But there was some movement amongst sectors.

Telcos were the star on the day with a 1.7% rise following a well-received earnings result from TPG Telecom ((TPM)), a subsequent 7% share price jump, and a floating of all telco boats including Telstra ((TLS)), which was up 1.4%. That move was countered by the banks, which fell 0.5%.

Energy predictably rose 0.5% on a stronger oil price while materials unpredictably fell 0.6% on a stronger iron ore price. At some point some of the gloss must come off iron ore’s price rebound following a currency conversion.

Muted Response

It’s a sad reality that global financial markets have become increasingly inured to terrorist attacks but the truth is, the world will go on. Last year’s attacks in Paris did spark a flight to safety – including stock market selling – but only briefly. The attacks last night in Brussels are no less significant but have not evoked any financial panic. The US dollar is slightly stronger, gold is relatively steady, the French stock market closed flat, the German market a little higher and the London market a little lower. There was some initial movement on the early news reports but that proved short-lived. Oil prices are also relatively flat.

The Dow opened down 80-odd points but was immediately bought. Wall Street looked set for a flat close before some selling emerged late in the session, but presumably not on a terror basis. The weaker close did, nevertheless, bring to an end what had been a seven-day winning streak.

Commodities

West Texas crude has now rolled into the May delivery front month contract, and in so doing has gained a couple of dollars and come right into line with Brent. The May contract is actually down US8c but that takes it to US$41.44/bbl thanks to the contango existing on the forward curve, which is driven by excessive near-term supply. Brent, which is already trading May delivery, rose US22c to US$41.84.

It was another mixed session for base metals in London. Aluminium and lead fell over half a percent while tin rose a percent and copper and zinc ticked up slightly.

Iron ore fell US10c to US$57.90/t.

The US dollar index is up 0.3% at 95.66 and gold is up US$3.80 at US$1246.80/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 7 points.

With Glenn Steven’s speech now out of the way, and the Brussels attacks evoking no more than a sigh, it is difficult to see any major movement ahead for the local market ahead of the weekend. Most players will disappear from tomorrow lunchtime.

Today is the quarterly expiry of stock options on the ASX.

Brickworks ((BKW)) and Nufarm ((NUF)) will each provide earnings reports. CSL ((CSL)) is among a handful of stocks going ex today.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Where To Now?

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 21 points or 0.1% while the S&P gained 0.1% to 2051 and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

Bring It On

There is likely a level of fiscal nervousness creeping into the Australian stock market now that the government has pulled the double dissolution trigger and brought forward the budget release to allow for an early election. We have Easter this weekend and then we head into April – so often a peak month for the market ahead of the old “Sell in May” period.

The healthcare sector has been suffering from fiscal nervousness for some time given the number of government reviews underway of various elements of the country’s healthcare system. But at this stage of the game, the government’s May budget is still a bit of a mystery. Tax reform looms as a potential issue for the superannuation industry. Thereafter, well, we just don’t know yet.

Commodity prices have stabilised for now and we are still in the vacuum left behind from the February results season. Market news and research is very thin on the ground. Glenn Stevens is set to speak today and the market will be very interested to hear what he has to say, summed up by the one question: Is an interest rate cut now likely in response to global developments?” Just suggesting the Aussie is “too high” probably ain’t gonna cut it.

The overnight futures market signalled another strong day for the local market yesterday but it never happened. Energy was down a percent on a lower oil price but otherwise most sectors appeared to be hit with a bit of profit-taking, with one exception being healthcare, having suffered enough of late.

There is no doubt also some nervousness with regard Wall Street, which as of last night has posted its longest winning streak since December 2014, marking seven consecutive up-days and a 13% rally from the February low for the S&P500. What will drive it higher from here?

Hanging On

That will probably come down to US earnings reports, which will begin to flow next month. Meanwhile, there’s Easter and then end-of-quarter and plenty of profits to be locked in following the 13% run. Stock markets do not keep going up forever and hence there must be a pullback around the corner.

The oil correlation appears to have faded for now given consolidation in the oil price, but that’s not to say Wall Street wouldn’t tumble in a heartbeat if oil were to suffer another dip. Many believe it will, although there are tentative signs emerging of US production finally responding to low oil prices.

There are always more economic data releases to consider of course. Last night it was revealed US existing home sales plunged 7.1% in February, more than economists expected. But then economists did not forecast December’s record jump in sales and incorrectly suggested January would see some give-back. Existing home sales numbers can be volatile.

The Chicago Fed national activity index fell to minus 2.9 in February from plus 0.41 in January. January was actually a surprise blip. The index has fallen five months out of six.

WTI crude did close a little higher last night but given it was the expiry of the April delivery contract, there’s not much to be read into it. More interesting is that after surging all the way up to 2050 at the quadruple witching expiry on Friday night, last night the S&P500 held on for a 2051 close when no one would have been surprised by a pullback.

Volumes were nevertheless minimal last night following the biggest numbers for the year on Friday’s expiry/rebalance day. There were a couple of merger announcements to excite the market, but not much else.

Of course the problem with markets that can no longer find a reason to go up is that they inevitably go down instead.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US58c at US$39.91/bbl and Brent is up US16c at US$41.62/bbl.

Base metal markets have found themselves in a similar position to stock markets, and with a four-day break coming up for the LME there’s likely to be some squaring. With the US dollar index ticking back further overnight with 0.4% gain to 95.37, metal prices were mixed. Copper was steady, aluminium and tin fell 0.5% and lead, nickel and zinc rose 1%.

The fun and games continued in iron ore nonetheless. Analysts have been scratching their heads as to exactly why iron ore has found such renewed strength, outside of seasonal restocking, and thus the warning stands that strength will likely be fleeting.

Last week it looked as if we might have begun the pullback but no – iron ore has turned around again and last night rose US$1.70 to US$58.00/t.

While the slight recovery for the US dollar following its Fed-related plunge last week is not having a lot of impact on consumable commodities, last night gold fell US$12.10 to US$1243.00/oz.

The Aussie is down 0.3% at US$0.7580.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 11 points or 0.2%.

All ears will be on the RBA governor when he speaks today.

Kathmandu ((KMD)) and TPG Telecom ((TPM)) post earnings results today.

Rudi will Skype-link up with Sky Business today at around 11.15am to talk broker calls and tonight from 8-9.30pm he will host Your Money, Your Call Equities. Nigel has not been invited.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

Consolidation

The ASX200 surged almost 50 points early in the session on Friday but eased back by lunchtime ahead of a quiet afternoon. Stronger commodities prices again supported the resources sectors but the banks were flat, and we’re beginning to see evidence of the damage caused by a suddenly much stronger Aussie.

Materials closed up 1.7% and energy 0.8% but healthcare fell 1.1% as offshore exposure and ongoing fears surrounding the upcoming federal budget continue to weigh.

It's Easter this weekend providing for short weeks this week and next, plus next week also sees the end of the March quarter before we then shift into a school holiday period in April. As excitement over the Fed’s more measured policy stance dies down, we should now see a period of consolidation following the solid bounce up to 5200 from 4800 for the index.

The subject du jour is of course commodity prices, and whether they can hold up at these rebound levels. The banks have returned from what were considered oversold levels and as yet there is no expectation of a rate cut from the RBA anytime soon.

That might possibly change tomorrow when Glenn Stevens makes a speech and takes a Q&A, given all that has transpired in central bank and currency land since the March RBA meeting.

Start Again

Wall Street posted its fifth straight week of gains last week and the Dow rallied six sessions in a row for the first time since October. After Friday’s rally, which was really just more of the same from Thursday post-Fed, both the Dow and S&P500 are in positive territory for the year.

The Dow closed up 120 points or 0.7% while the S&P gained 0.4% to 2049 and the Nasdaq added 0.4%.

The major driver of the stock index rebound has been the commodity price rebound and the weaker US dollar, driven by abating Fed hike fears. The lower greenback also feeds into stronger commodity prices. Commodity prices may be back where they began the year but there has not been any change to the outlook for the Chinese economy, which supposedly was one of the scare factors that took Wall Street down in the first place.

That puts the focus squarely back on central bank policy as the provider of stock market stimulus.

Michigan Uni reported on Friday night that its fortnightly US consumer sentiment gauge had fallen to a five-month low 90.0 from 91.7. US consumers are apparently now worried that the US economy is not going to grow as fast as early assumed and that on the rebound in the oil price, gasoline prices will begin to rise ahead of the summer driving season.

The WTI price fell 2% on Friday night because for the first time in 13 weeks, the domestic rig count rose. The bounce was in the order of…drum roll…one rig, but no doubt it had the market wondering whether reductions have now reached their limit.

Nevertheless, the total rig count, which includes Gulf oil that has recently taken a back seat to domestic shale oil, fell by four rigs to 476 last week to a new record low. Since a year ago, 593 rigs have ceased operation. One would think that such a massive shutdown of supply would have to suggest oil prices have seen their lows and should go higher form here but the problem is one of a self-defeating feedback loop. Modern shale oil rigs can be switched back on again in a heartbeat and if oil prices remain supported, many probably will.

And that’s likely why the addition of one lonely domestic rig tipped oil prices over.

It’s also interesting to note, once more, that the correlation between the oil price and Wall Street was negative on Friday night.

It was actually the biggest volume day of 2016, but that’s understandable given the March quarter quadruple witching expiry and the closing bell rebalancing of S&P500 weightings. Given the S&P closed just a tad under 2050, one presumes this strike price was influential in Wall Street’s move on Friday night.

So we’ll see what happens tonight.

Commodities

West Texas crude fell US79c to US$39.33/bbl and Brent rose US12c to US$41.46/bbl.

After falling solidly in the wake of the Fed meeting, the US dollar index rebounded slightly on Friday night, up 0.3% to 95.01. This was a sufficient trigger to spark some profit-taking in base metals prices that have been enjoying the benefits of the weaker greenback up to now. Aluminium and copper fell 0.5%, lead and tin fell 1%, nickel fell 2.5% and zinc was steady.

Iron ore rose US90c to US$56.30/t.

The bounce in the greenback helped the Aussie down 0.5% to US$0.7604 on Saturday morning but gold held its ground, steady at US$1255.10/oz.

The SPI Overnight closed up 29 points or 0.6% on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

US data releases this week include the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales tonight, FHFA house prices and the Richmond Fed index on Tuesday, and new home sales on Wednesday. Thursday it’s durable goods, and Friday another revision of December quarter GDP.

Which reminds us the Good Friday is not actually a national public holiday in the US despite markets being closed. And Wall Street opens on Easter Monday. Markets are closed on Friday in Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Europe.

Thursday also sees a flash estimate of March manufacturing PMI in the US, as well as in Japan and the eurozone. The eurozone also sees the release of both the ZEW investor sentiment and IFO German business sentiment indices on Tuesday night.

Australia is devoid of major economic data this week, although as noted, Glenn Stevens’ speech tomorrow will be a must-see event.

On the local stock front, there are still a handful of stocks left to go ex-div this week while out of cycle earnings reports will be forthcoming from Kathmandu ((KMD)) and TPG Telecom ((TPM)) tomorrow and Brickworks ((BKW)) and Nufarm ((NUF)) on Wednesday. Westpac ((WBC)) will provide a strategy update on Thursday.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Tuesday morning (11.15am) via Skype-link, then later on Tuesday he'll host Your Money, Your Call (8-9.30pm). On Thursday Rudi re-appears at noon and again between 7-8pm for the Switzer Report.
 

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

Next Week At A Glance

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.


By Greg Peel

Tonight is the quarterly quadruple witching expiry in the US which, along with the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P500 index, can lead to heightened volatility that is removed from actual trend of the market.

That trend is up for now, following the boost a more prudent Fed has provided for commodity prices, along with resultant weakness in the US dollar. The Dow is at a 2016 high and S&P just shy. With the latest round of central bank policy adjustments now out of the way, attention will once again turn to earnings in a couple of weeks when the first US March quarter reports start to flow.

It’s a short week next week due to Easter, with the bulk of developed world markets closed on Good Friday.

US data releases across the week include existing and new homes sales, house prices, durable goods, and the Chicago Fed national and Richmond Fed activity indices.

There is little of note in the way of Australian economic data next week but the market will be keen to hear what RBA governor Glenn Stevens has to say in a speech on Tuesday, in light of recent central bank activity and the big rally in the Aussie.

Next week will also feature earnings reports from Kathmandu ((KMD)), TPG Telecom ((TPM)), Brickworks ((BKW)) and Nufarm ((NUF)). Westpac ((WBC)) will provide a strategy update on Thursday and there are still some stocks left to go ex-dividend next week.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: The Day After

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 155 points or 0.9% while the S&P gained 0.7% to 2040 as the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.

Odd Jobs

Congratulations to the three hundred Australians who managed to find a job last month. Commiserations to the far greater number who abandoned hope of finding a job in Australia’s currently difficult economy.

The market saw a fall in Australia’s unemployment rate to 5.8% from 6.0% as reason to believe there is no way the RBA can cut its cash rate further. The Aussie had already spiked overnight as the US dollar fell on the Fed’s policy pullback, and kicked again yesterday on that 5.8% number. It’s kicked even further overnight on ongoing greenback weakness to be up 1.1% over 24 hours at US$76.43, up around two cents from pre-Fed.

Yet economists had forecast an addition of 13,500 jobs in February and the result was a mere 300. Not that economist forecasts ever get anywhere near the complete lottery that is the monthly ABS jobs data. The fall in the unemployment rate was due to a sharp fall in the participation rate. In September, October and November, Australia added a net 124,700 jobs. In December, January and February, Australia has lost a net 6,600 jobs.

It is not unusual for jobs growth to ease back after such a spurt, but we are reminded that in his March monetary policy statement, the RBA governor suggested, in relation to policy setting, “Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to judge whether the improvement in labour market conditions is continuing”. Well, it’s not.

But along with the currency, the Australian stock market kicked higher on the release of the unemployment number. Just prior, the opening Wall Street-inspired rally had begun to fade. There was a sharp jump up to 50 points higher on the session for the ASX200, and that’s pretty much where we stayed for the rest of the day.

The rally was led out by energy (+2.8%) and materials (+2.3%) which is understandable given the jump in commodity prices provided by the weaker US dollar. But the real clout came from a 1.1% gain for the banks. I noted yesterday that US bank stocks had fallen in defiance of the rest of the market post-Fed on Wednesday night because banks need higher rates, and subsequently suggested the local banks might come under pressure yesterday if the Fed had opened the door for an RBA cut. But 5.8% unemployment! No cut, the market has decided.

The RBA’s April statement is going to make for interesting reading.

All is forgiven

I note every time there is a Fed meeting that the smart money tends to let the headless chooks run around for the couple of hours post-release and instead take a night to think about it before making a more studied investment decision the next day. Wall Street did rally post-Fed, but the more thoughtful investors decided to push on with it more emphatically last night.

The two main drivers were a US dollar which has fallen another 0.9% overnight to 94.77 on its index and the WTI crude price, which has retaken US$40/bbl. WTI fell through 40 last December and began its rapid slide down to 26 in February, sending global stock markets into a spiral, not the least Wall Street. Well with oil now back at 40, the Dow last night turned positive for the year. The S&P traded positive for the year but eased a little toward the close.

The indices were led out by the energy and materials sectors once more, but the weaker greenback also provided support for the significant number of multinational industrials. Stocks like Dow component Caterpillar, which is not only tied to commodity prices but derives more than half of its revenue offshore, are making a comeback.

Meanwhile, the star performer in the broader market last night was FedEx, which shot up 10% on its earnings result release. FedEx is a direct beneficiary of the rapidly growing on-line shopping business, but it is also a company for which lower oil (and while we may be back at 40 that’s still a long way from 100) means lower costs.

It would appear that if the US economy can find a sweet spot of balance between an oil price that is low enough to force supply curtailment and provide a boost to oil consuming companies and households, but not so low as to threaten economic meltdown, there is cause for optimism. And the Fed is being supportive by keeping a lid on the US dollar.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US$1.61 or 4.2% at US$40.12/bbl and Brent is up US$1.05 or 2.6% at US$41.34/bbl.

The LME had its first chance to respond to the Fed last night having closed on Wednesday night just before the statement release. The US dollar index is down 2% in that time, so no surprise that copper is up 1.5%, lead and tin up 2%, nickel up 2.5% and zinc up 4%. Only aluminium struggled, up a mere 0.3%.

Iron ore rose US$2.90 to US$55.40/t.

Gold, on the other hand, has not been able to push to new 2016 highs despite another 1% fall in the greenback overnight. It’s down US$4.90 at US$1256.40/oz.

Today

Yesterday was expiry day for the SPI and the new June front month contract closed up 24 points or 0.5% overnight.

Today will see the changes to the components of the ASX/S&P indices announced two weeks ago become effective.

Tonight will see an equivalent rebalancing of the S&P500 in the US, along with the quarterly quadrupled witching expiry of equity derivatives. There could thus be some heightened volatility, particularly at the close.

Premier Investments ((PMV)) will release its earnings report today.

Rudi will link up with Sky Business through Skype at around 11.15am to discuss broker calls.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: The Fed Meets The Market

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 74 points or 0.4% while the S&P gained 0.6% to 2027 and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%.

Nothing to see

The ASX200 opened lower yesterday on overnight falls in commodity prices but quickly recovered to spend the rest of the pre-Fed session chopping around the flat line.

Ultimately energy finished up 0.4% while the big fall in the iron ore price saw materials down 0.7%. Consumer staples was also down 0.7% but balance was provided by a modest recovery for the banks after Tuesday’s fall, up 0.5%.

The world then awaited the Fed.

Global Game

When the Fed made its first post-GFC rate hike in December, the expectation from both the FOMC and the market was that another four rate hikes would follow in 2016 at each of the quarterly meetings. Then the bottom fell out of the oil price.

The fall in oil had reverberations around the globe and forced a reduction in 2016 global growth expectations. While it seemed logical to assume that lower oil prices would feed increased consumer spending and provide a boost to industry through lower fuel costs, the market initially underestimated the impact of lower oil on the global energy sector itself and particularly on global oil producing nations. Meanwhile, China’s painful process of reform and subsequent slowing growth added to the angst.

Pretty quickly the market trimmed back its Fed rate expectations to two hikes in 2016 from four. Last night the Fed left its funds rate on hold at 0.25-0.50% as expected, taking one rate hike off the table. The Fed statement also lowered the central bank’s expectations to two rates hikes in 2016 rather than the previous four.

The Fed met the market.

The two main reasons provided for the downward revision were ongoing labour market slack, which is a nod to low wages growth and thus limited inflation pressure, and, in simple terms, the rest of the world. Since December, Japan has gone to negative rates, China, is upping the stimulus and the ECB has gone to zero and pumped up QE. If we consider the global economy as a closed shop, the Fed has actually achieved a March rate rise relative to the rest of the developed world without actually doing anything.

While the Fed statement could be considered neither more dovish nor more hawkish than the market expected, the US dollar index still tanked 1.1%, to 95.65. The greenback fell against the euro, yen, pound and Swissy and therefore only served to frustrate the central banks of those economies who are all trying to lower their currencies relative to each other.

The predicted two Fed rate rises are not set in stone, Janet Yellen was quick to point out. The Fed statement actually omitted the long-standing "we are data dependent" line this time around, but I think we can take "not set in stone" to mean unless things change, and change is usually evident in data.

Prior to the Fed release last night the US February CPI data were published. Headline inflation fell 0.2% due almost entirely to cheaper gasoline. The year on year headline rate has fallen to 1.0% from 1.4% in January. Stripping out energy and food, the core CPI rose 0.3% to be up 2.3% year on year.

The Fed’s inflation target is 2%, but not for the CPI. The Fed wants to see the personal consumption & expenditure (PCE) measure at 2% and that’s currently at 1.7%, and Fed forecasting does not have the PCE hitting 2% in 2016.

While the Fed acknowledges strong US jobs growth it also recognises a recovery in job seeking (participation rate), which is providing the drag on wage growth given there are still plenty of candidates ready to fill positions. The resultant lack of wage inflation is holding back overall inflation, and thus providing the Fed with the scope to be “prudent” in its policy.

While Wall Street clearly welcomed the Fed statement, a 74 point rally for the Dow is nothing reminiscent of the days of yore when hints of no rate rise would send Wall Street skyrocketing on the old “bad news is good news” theme. Indeed, the major drivers of last night’s post-Fed rally in US stocks were the materials and energy sectors, which were boosted by the weaker US dollar and the assumption the greenback will stay that way given the Fed has pulled back its hiking timetable.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US$2.06 or 5.7% at US$38.51/bbl and Brent is up US$1.52 or 3.9% at US$40.29/bbl. Aside from the currency boost, oil rallied last night due to two other factors.

The weekly US crude inventory data showed that stockpiles continued to rise but at a lower rate than expected. Weekly production once again fell.

Qatar’s energy minister announced OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers will meet in Doha on April 17 to negotiate an agreement to limit output.

As to why anyone can be excited about that last one is anyone’s guess. Readers may have noticed I’ve had an OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Moscow pencilled in to the FNArena calendar this Sunday because that was the schedule set at the beginning of this month. I’ve been waiting to take it out and now I have, moving it to April 17. I will not be the least surprised if I end up moving it again.

Iran will not come to the party. End of story. If Iran’s not at the party then Saudi Arabia’s not joining in either. End of story. Investors need to focus on the weekly US oil data, including the above and each Friday’s rig count number, and on the number of defaults among marginal US producers. That’s where the oil story lies. OPEC meetings are a myth.

Gold is up US$28.20 at US$1261.30/oz which is no great surprise with the greenback down a percent. This jump nevertheless does not fully reinstate gold to where it was at the beginning of the week before nervous holders decided to square up ahead of the Fed meeting.

The LME always closes just as the Fed releases its policy statements so we have to wait until tonight to gauge the reaction for base metal markets. Last night all metals bar tin edged up a bit in anticipation.

After crashing back to earth, iron ore is up US80c at US$52.50/t.

And, of course, the flipside of the weaker greenback is a stronger Aussie, which is up 1.3% and back at US$0.7557.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 36 points or 0.7%.

If this proves accurate it will be the resource sectors leading the way today. The counterbalance may be the banks. US banks were among the worst performers on Wall Street last night given banks earn more with higher rates. The April RBA meeting will be interesting. With the Fed confirming a slower pace of raising, and central banks around the globe further easing since the March RBA meeting, what will our central bank want to do about that Aussie?

Australia’s February jobs numbers are out today. There’s some more fodder.

The Bank of England will hold a policy meeting tonight, but no one seems to care.

Myer ((MYR)) and OrotonGroup ((ORL)) will post earnings results today. Keep an eye on Myer. At 21% it’s the most shorted stock on the ASX. A better than expected result could spark a very sharp rally.

But that would require a better than expected result.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business today between 12.20-2.30pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com