AMPOL LIMITED (ALD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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ALD

ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Consumer Products & Services
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 6.27
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Ampol (previously branded as Caltex Australia) is an Australian petroleum company first incorporated in 1936 in New South Wales. The company first listed on the ASX in 1948.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$20.65

16 Apr
2025

-0.650

OPEN

$21.19

-3.05%

HIGH

$21.35

1,913,576

LOW

$20.63

TARGET
$29.40

-0.13 change from previous day

 42.4% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
MPA . PFP . WES .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ALD: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 51.4 153.7 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 65.0 96.7 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 77.7% 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 76.4% 48.7% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 14.3 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.4% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 126.4% 62.9% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 2.04%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 2.96

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/08 - ex-div 60c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic 151.3-194.2234.2317.8230.451.4
DPS All 83.048.093.0275.0275.065.0
Sales/Revenue 22,059.9 M15,175.6 M21,420.9 M38,245.4 M37,454.5 M34,540.2 M
Book Value Per Share 1,304.31,181.81,290.31,524.11,493.51,327.4
Net Operating Cash Flow 844.3 M267.6 M634.6 M948.3 M1,504.0 M893.5 M
Net Profit Margin 1.74 %-3.20 %2.61 %1.90 %1.47 %0.35 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed 11.54 %-15.62 %18.59 %21.69 %15.27 %3.64 %
Return on Invested Capital 8.50 %-10.40 %11.56 %12.20 %8.02 %1.79 %
Return on Assets 5.08 %-6.19 %6.93 %6.56 %4.13 %0.92 %
Return on Equity 11.54 %-15.62 %18.59 %21.69 %15.27 %3.64 %
Return on Total Capital 5.96 %-9.78 %12.93 %12.42 %10.36 %2.17 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends 373.0 M-126.9 M149.0 M168.3 M381.1 M-337.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt 221 M160 M160 M504 M296 M520 M
Long Term Debt 1,559 M1,556 M2,104 M3,111 M3,399 M3,557 M
Total Debt 1,781 M1,716 M2,264 M3,614 M3,695 M4,077 M
Goodwill - Gross 425 M425 M426 M680 M688 M682 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic 35 M368 M566 M126 M301 M124 M
Price To Book Value 2.602.402.301.862.422.12

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex 280.7 M226.6 M324.2 M406.9 M539.3 M685.6 M
Capex % of Sales 1.27 %1.49 %1.51 %1.06 %1.44 %1.98 %
Cost of Goods Sold 20,550 M14,375 M19,528 M35,864 M35,014 M32,629 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other 1,230 M1,289 M1,211 M1,557 M1,647 M1,745 M
Research & Development ------
Investments - Total 155 M173 M184 M305 M311 M473 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

17/04/2025

1

Overweight

$30.00

45.28%

Ampol is expected to receive a "muted" response by the market to the March 2025 quarter results, according to Morgan Stanley, with the stock already down -24% year-to-date compared to the ASX200 Energy sector down -20% and the ASX200 Industrial up 1%.

The company reported a Lytton refinery margin of US$6.07/bbl, up 32% on the previous quarter and down -49% on a year earlier, on production of 1.38m bbl.

Fuel sales came in at 6.1bn litres, down -18% on the previous quarter and -7% on a year previously.

The broker highlights Ampol expects ongoing margin compression in refining margins this quarter and modest volumes and margin tailwinds. Management confirmed the cost-out target of -$50m for 2025.

Overweight rated. Target price retained at $30. Industry view: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 219.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

17/04/2025

1

Buy

$30.60

48.18%

Goldman Sachs notes the significant volatility across energy stocks on global tariff-related news and the fall in Brent crude price below US$60/bbl for the first time since 2021.

The analysts initially trimmed global oil demand forecasts and consequently cut Brent forecast to US$66/bbl in 2025 and US$58/bbl in 2026. This was revised on news of a 90-day pause to elevated US tariffs. with a forecast of US$65/bbl for 2025 and US$70/bbl for 2026.

The broker marked-to-market commodity prices and forex, lowered near-term oil price and refining margin forecasts, and rolled forward valuation. This resulted in a -1-4% downgrade in target price for most energy stocks.

The broker expects Ampol's Lyntton refining margin in the March quarter was US$7.2/bbl based on -17% q/q lower input due to the 10-day shutdown on account of Cyclone Alfred.

Buy. Target cut to $30.60 from $31.30.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 186.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ALD STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ALD

1
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 11-04-25

Apr 14 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
Next Week At A Glance – 31 Mar – 4 April, 2025

Mar 28 2025 - Weekly Reports
3
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 27, 2025

Mar 27 2025 - Daily Market Reports
4
Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell

Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View
5
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 03, 2025

Mar 03 2025 - Daily Market Reports

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