COGSTATE LIMITED (CGS)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

20/02/2026

1

Buy

$2.90

22.36%

Bell Potter notes Cogstate’s 1H26 revenue was pre-released and EBIT of $4.9m was 7% ahead of expectations due to lower operating expenses, with the EBIT margin of 18.3% above guidance.

Gross margin was temporarily reduced by additional hiring, cost reallocation and a doubtful debt provision, but EBITDA still rose 5% and NPAT up 16% due to a lower tax outcome.

Bell Potter highlights a strong balance sheet with $34.1m cash and no debt, alongside record pipeline opportunities, record new trial starts, and a $16.0m increase in backlog after $41.7m of new sales.

Management's FY26 guidance was broadly in line, including expectations for stronger 2H26 revenue, gross margin recovery to 56-59%, and continued operating leverage with channel partnerships expanding opportunities.

Bell Potter retains Buy and keeps its target price at $2.90, lifsting NPAT forecasts 2% for both FY27/FY28 with FY26 unchanged.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.06 cents and EPS of 9.49 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 3.83 cents and EPS of 11.47 cents.

15/12/2025

1

Buy

$3.30

39.24%

Canaccord Genuity initially considered Cogstate's 1H26 update as a downgrade, but later observed the weaker recognised revenue/margins largely reflect timing and mix in a contract-based model. It is not a change in underlying demand, the broker concluded.

Contracted revenue was strong at US$37-40m, and the broker expects the FY26 revenue shortfall to be recovered in 2H with only minor earnings impact.

Gross margin may come in -1-2pp below the 61% FY26 forecast, pressuring earnings slightly, while higher staff costs are already expected. 

AI rollout is expected to drive OpEx efficiencies over the next 12–18 months as the business shifts toward more service-heavy trial work.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.30.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.84 cents and EPS of 8.87 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 3.52 cents and EPS of 11.63 cents.