Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 13-02-26

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This story features AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIS
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday February 9 to Friday February 13, 2026
Total Upgrades: 31
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.61%; Hold 27.44%; Sell 7.95%

For the week ending Friday, February 13, 2026, FNArena tracked thirty-one upgrades and twelve downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Percentage declines in average target prices outweigh upgrades in the tables below.

In contrast, increases in average earnings forecasts exceeded reductions, largely reflecting updated commodity pricing assumptions by Macquarie.

For 2026, this broker’s iron ore price forecast was increased by 4%, copper 11%, nickel 16%, gold 2%, silver 9% and lithium 95%, with lithium and nickel levels now above consensus estimates.

These changes had the largest impact on earnings forecasts for lithium miners Liontown Resources, IGO Ltd, and PLS Group.

The increase in target price for IGO was moderated slightly the following day after management updated its Greenbushes resources and reserves estimates, lifting contained lithium by 9%. Underground expansion potential was also highlighted by Macquarie.

Courtesy of the above mentioned commodity price update by Macquarie, Perseus Mining (gold) and iron ore exposure Fortescue also appear in the earnings upgrades table with rises of 28% and 10%, respectively.

Due to heightened activity during the February reporting season, the majority of material moves in average target prices in the tables below are largely explained by reference to the ‘beats’ and ‘misses’ in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/13/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-13-02-2026/.

After their respective reports, CommBank and James Hardie Industries appear second and third on the positive change to target price list. A more detailed exploration of broker views on CommBank will be available in an article to be published by FNArena later today.

Beating both of these stocks into first position on the list is global metals and electronics recycling company Sims.

A day prior to news of the acquisition by Sims of US-based scrap metal operator Tri Coastal Trading for -$95m, UBS explained why the inhouse view was positive on the Australian steel sector.

US-listed mills have outperformed the S&P500 by about 30% over three months, driven by 2026 steel price upgrades, the analysts noted.

Also, the broker now has greater confidence in Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS), which recovers and resells memory components from decommissioned IT equipment, as rising Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) pricing directly boosts margins and earnings.

DDR4 prices have doubled and channel checks by the analysts suggest market deficits will persist through 2027.

UBS also highlighted improving conditions in Sims’ Metals division, with non-ferrous prices rising on supply constraints and ferrous scrap prices reaching near one-year highs, providing broader earnings tailwinds.

The Tri Coastal acquisition was considered strategically sound by Ord Minnett, funded through the sale of existing Houston land and supportive of regional market consolidation.

The broker’s EPS estimates were raised for FY26 on the contribution from Tri Coastal and stronger SLS earnings, though it’s thought a stronger Australian dollar will weigh on outer-year forecasts.

Despite valuation support and an increase in Sell-rated Ord Minnett’s target to $17 from $15.90, Sims’ stock is fully priced in this broker’s opinion. In contrast, UBS raised its target to $25.00 from $17.15 and upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

The only material fall in average target not explained by reference to FNArena’s Monitor is that of Catapult Sports, after Bell Potter incorporated previously excluded transaction costs for US-based video analysis platform Impect.

While the broker’s Buy rating was retained, the analysts’ target was trimmed to $5.50 from $6.50.

This broker still views the stock as a higher-quality mid-cap tech exposure despite share price weakness and a likely upcoming shift to the ASX300 from the ASX200.

Ord Minnett also initiated research coverage on Catapult with a $4.33 target, the lowest of (the now) five brokers in the database.

The Buy-rated broker suggested Catapult will benefit from significant growth in expenditure on technology in the pro sports market.

Operating leverage and expansion to higher-margin product categories are also expected to lead to earnings margins above 40%.

The stock trades at an inexpensive valuation, which is attractive relative to peers, suggested the analysts.

With the topic du jour being AI disruption of software businesses, it’s unsurprising SiteMinder heads up the negative change to earnings forecast list, with Life360 in fifth place.

Last week, Citi argued AI disruption fears understate Buy-rated SiteMinder’s structural advantages as distribution fragments.

It’s thought rising direct bookings and online travel agency (OTA) disintermediation enhance the channel manager’s value.

While anticipating modest downside risk to the company’s interim earnings from higher costs, the broker felt momentum for products Dynamic Revenue Plus and Channels Plus will support the outlook.

The analysts forecast first-half earnings of $13m, around -7% below the consensus expectation, and lowered their target to $6.75 from $8.40.

While decreasing its target for Life360 to $41.50 from $45.00, Bell Potter viewed Life360 as offering standout value, supported by strong defensibility within its app-based ecosystem.

It’s felt consensus FY26 earnings forecasts are achievable, with guidance likely to align at least with expectations.

Average earnings forecasts by brokers for Whitehaven Coal and Challenger also fell by -18% and -16%, respectively, last week.

Following its commodity price review, Macquarie retained a Neutral rating and $10 target for Whitehaven.

Later in the week, UBS trimmed its target for the company to $8.90 from $8.95, expecting a token dividend at the interim result to better align domestic and offshore investors alongside the ongoing buyback.

Citi and Morgan Stanley assessed Challenger’s proposed $2.60 per share cash bid for Pepper Money as broadly consistent with inherent value and potentially EPS accretive.

The investment aligns with Challenger’s non-bank lending strategy and could secure attractive fixed income exposure, noted the analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Citi highlighted risk around further similar investments which could potentially constrain future capital management flexibility.

Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 64.61%.

With only 7.95% in Sell ratings, this leaves 27.44% for Neutral/Holds.

Upgrade

AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Morgans upgrades Aeris Resources to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged $0.70 target following the proposed acquisition of Peel Mining’s ((PEX)) South Cobar Copper Project.

The broker argues the transaction materially strengthens Tritton’s long-term outlook, adding largely indicated, high-grade resources and supporting a credible 10-plus year mine life.

Morgans believes integrating Mallee Bull into the existing Tritton infrastructure offers capital-efficient growth, stronger mill utilisation and improved operating leverage from around FY29.

Forecasts and valuation are unchanged at this stage, pending Peel shareholder approval.

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

UBS upgrades AMP to Buy from Neutral and lowers its target price to $1.75 from $1.90 following the 2025 result.

The broker notes underlying net profit after tax of $285m was in line but operating divisions missed by around -10% in 2H2025 on revenue margin pressure across Platforms and S&I, while the Bank also underperformed.

UBS has lowered FY26 EPS forecast by -4% with DPS reduced to 4c per share through 2027, reflecting weaker margins and a lower NIM outlook.

The broker argues the -27% share price reaction leaves the stock trading below NTA at around 11x 2026 earnings, which it views as attractive given a 10% pa EPS growth outlook.

Equally, the $287m of surplus CET1 is viewed positively with potential asset sales as providing optionality for future capital management.

Macquarie assesses the 2025 results from AMP serve as a reset for revenue margins in platforms and S&I, as well as dividends for 2026/27. The stock is now trading at a -25% discount to its three-year average 12-month forward PE and an -8% discount to NTA.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The company has taken an unusual approach in guiding to dividends for two years in advance, targeting 2c per half through 2026 and 2027, lower than the broker’s expectation of 3c.

Although recognising buybacks as a preferred method for returning additional capital to shareholders, AMP has not announced one as yet. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.90.

AMP has guided to 2026 margins that are below expectations across all divisions and Ord Minnett points out it did not announce a share buyback as many had expected, raising concerns the business may use its strong capital position for acquisitions.

A belated downgrade to the margin outlook, with the broker noting the company has been holding the line since the first half of 2025, may have provided a false sense of security to investors.

Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates by -4.6% for 2026 and -8.2% for 2027, leading to a reduction in the target to $1.65 from $2.05.

Given the slide in the share price post the results, the broker now considers the risks are more than discounted and raises the rating to Buy from Accumulate.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/1/2

Morgan Stanley upgrades ANZ Bank to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a higher target of $41.30 from $36.30, citing trends in 1Q26 that give the analyst greater confidence in the earnings outlook. ANZ is the preferred major bank.

Earnings for 1Q26 came in around 8% above expectations due to considerably lower-than-anticipated expenses, and there was no change to FY26 guidance.

Credit quality was robust, and the loan loss rate was around -4bps lower than estimates at circa 5bps, with the CET1 in line at around 12.5%.

EPS forecasts raised by circa 3%-5% for FY26-FY28. Morgan Stanley sees more scope for improved capital management and dividend outlook.

Industry view: In-line.

See also ANZ downgrade.

AUB GROUP LIMITED ((AUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

UBS upgrades AUB Group to Buy from Neutral with its $35 target price unchanged, following recent concerns around AI disruption across insurance brokers.

The broker highlights new AI driven tools such as Tuio and Insurify, which provide tailored quotes and facilitate direct purchases, increasing the risk of broker disintermediation.

UBS sees AI led direct distribution as a longer term risk but does not expect meaningful disruption in the Australian market over the medium term.

For insurers, underwriting is not considered at risk, with UBS questioning whether AI can materially reshape distribution dynamics or monetise effectively in Australia given limited supply chain infrastructure.

BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Ord Minnett assesses, having navigated its manufacturing transition, Breville Group has achieved a solid performance in the first half despite US tariff headwinds.

The company appears positioned to return to double-digit earnings growth in FY27 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

First half underlying net profit of $98.2m was largely in line with forecasts. The Americas led with 11.1% growth. Guidance for a modest increase in EBIT in FY26 appears prudent to the broker. Target is raised to $37.20 from $35.00.

CAR GROUP LIMITED ((CAR)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Morgans assesses CAR Group delivered a strong interim result broadly in line with consensus expectations, underpinned by double-digit growth across key offshore markets and a solid Australian performance.

The broker highlights resilient domestic advertising trends and strong offshore execution, with LatAm and Asia benefiting from product expansion and higher dealer engagement.

Ongoing investment in AI and product capabilities supports long-term growth, the analyst suggests, despite some margin pressure from brand and platform spending. A new global AI hub in Brazil is being established to develop core agentic capabilities.

With the stock trading near 22x FY27 earnings, valuation is seen as attractive given the group’s growth profile. The target price eases to $35.20 from $35.50, but Morgans upgrades to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.

COGSTATE LIMITED ((CGS)) Re-Initiate Coverage with a Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Bell Potter re-initiates coverage of Cogstate with a Buy rating and $2.90 target noting it is a highly specilalised and leading service provider to over 100 global biopharms customers in the clinical trials industry.

The broker points to strong 1H26 new contract sales of $41.7m, lifting backlog by $16.0m to $92.3m, and expects 11% and 10% revenue growth in FY26 and FY27, with EPS growth of around 21% in FY27.

Positive thematics include rising Alzheimer’s trial activity, broader CNS diversification and leverage to the Medidata partnership.

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Upon further analysis of interim results for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target $4.70.

A summary of the broker’s original thoughts yesterday follows.

On first inspection Citi notes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT reported 1H26 EPS of 12.7c, slightly below its 13.1c forecast but in line with consensus, with FY26 guidance retained.

The 1H26 dividend was pre-announced at 12.7c, in line with EPS and implying a 100% payout ratio. NTA rose 2% to $4.68 per share, with the stock trading at a -20% discount, while asset values increased on income growth of 2.5% and stable cap rates of 5.4%, the analyst notes.

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades Capricorn Metals to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $16.20 from $15.20 and raises FY26 EPS forecast by 4% with FY27 unchanged.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/0

In the wake of Computershare’s interim results, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $32.40 from $32.10 and upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

The analysts cite a more reasonable valuation and improving earnings momemtum, with management guiding to 6.7% EPS growth in FY26. It’s noted options to offset lower US rates include cost control and inorganic growth.

Revenue trends are strengthening, the broker highlights, particularly in Issuer Services and Corporate Trust. Stranded costs are expected to fall away by FY27, supporting margins.

The broker lifts its EPS forecasts by 1% in FY26 and up to 6% thereafter, while forecasting a 54% FY26 payout ratio. The analysts’ forecast payout ratio is pared back to 50% in FY27 given management’s commentary.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Charter Hall Retail REIT delivered first-half FY26 operating EPS and DPS growth of 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, supported by convenience store net property income (NPI) and and net lease retail NPI growth, explains Ord Minnett.

The broker highlights refinancing of the $1.6bn debt facility as a key positive, reducing interest margins, extending debt maturity and improving covenant headroom.

According to the analyst, the REIT continues to offer reliable funds from operations (FFO) growth, although higher gearing and hedging activity temper distribution growth expectations.

Ord Minnett raises its target to $4.10 from $4.00 and upgrades to an Accumulate rating from Hold on valuation grounds.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst lifts EPS estimates by 2% for FY26 and 6% for FY27 for Deterra Royalties while upgrading the rating to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target of $4.70 from $4.40.

DEXUS CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT ((DXC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT delivered a solid 1H26 result, in Morgans’ view, supported by like-for-like income growth and contracted rental escalators across its metro and highway-focused portfolio.

The broker highlights sound portfolio fundamentals, with high occupancy, long-dated leases and low gearing providing capacity to fund development and repositioning initiatives.

Higher interest rates are expected to moderate medium-term funds from operations (FFO) growth, largely offsetting near-term net property income (NPI) gains, despite supportive valuation conditions.

Morgans lowers its target to $3.00 from $3.10 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold given an attractive dividend yield alongside shares trading at a -26% discount to net asset value (NAV).

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The target for Fortescue rises by 5% to $22 and the broker’s rating is upgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades IGO Ltd to Outperform from Neutral and the target price lifts to $9.50 from $9.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/0/1

Following interim results for Northern Star Resources, Citi raises its target to $33.40 from $28.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Unchanged guidance and a 25cps dividend pleased the market, suggests the analyst.

The broker models a KCGM mill ramp-up conservatively at 19mtpa versus 23mtpa guidance. Jundee production is forecast at 233koz using a 3g/t grade, around -10% below the consensus forecast.

Short-term downside risks remain, according to Citi, yet valuation appears compelling at US$3,800/oz gold and 0.62x P/NAV.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades Ora Banda Mining to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $1.50 from $1.40 and FY26 EPS forecast is raised by 8% with FY27 unchanged.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts for 2026 with iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

PLS Group is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price rises 111% to $5. EPS estimates are also upgraded for higher spodumene price assumptions.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgans highlights the sell-off in Pro Medicus as investors become concerned that AI could structurally erode economics and commoditise premium-imaging SaaS platforms.

The core value of AI in healthcare is efficiency, speeding up workflow through automation and tackling tasks such as image-quality checks, auto-labelling and even pre-reading of obvious negatives.

The broker asserts this does not replace the need for radiology nor the enterprise workflow, data routing and high-performance visualisation that underpin the business.

Morgans believes Pro Medicus is one of the highest quality businesses listed on the ASX with robust margins and a stable revenue base and suggests it is a good time to pick up the shares, upgrading to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $290.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades Perseus Mining to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target of $6.50 from $6.40.

REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Post REA Group’s 1H26 result which basically met Morgans’ expectations, the analyst upgrades the stock to Buy from Accumulate with the result seen reflecting the strength of the company’s franchise against a challenging macro backdrop and a more attractive valuation.

The analyst pointed to the residential yield as a positive with 14% buy yield growth above the forecast of 12% due to an average 7% Premiere-plus price rises as well as growth in add-ons, and higher subscription revenues.

In contrast, there was a downgrade to volume growth expectations, with a decline of -1% to -3% now anticipated, and REA India remains challenging and competitive.

Morgans lowers EPS forecasts by around -1% to -2% for FY26-FY28 on reduced residential growth assumptions for 2H26 and a more cautious stance on growth in India.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Rio Tinto to Accumulate from Hold, reinstating the stock as its preferred choice versus BHP Group ((BHP)) among the large diversified miners as talks with Glencore have been abandoned.

Glencore had wanted 40% of the combined group and both parties could not agree on an acceptable price.

Ord Minnett now expects management will focus on growth projects, recycling of assets and the cost reduction program presented at the capital markets briefing in December.

Detailed guidance is expected with the 2025 earnings result on February 19. Target is raised to $173 from $158.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/0/2

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades Regis Resources to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $9.60 from $7.60 and lifts FY26 EPS estimate by 6% with FY27 unchanged. The stock has become one of Macquarie’s preferred mid-cap picks with dividend upside.

SGH LIMITED ((SGH)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/0

SGH Ltd is upgraded to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter with a higher target of $56 from $51.80 following 1H26 underlying earnings (EBIT), which beat expectations by 4%, including improved results from Beach Energy ((BPT)) and media.

Excluding investee profits, earnings (EBIT) met expectations, with Boral 3% above forecast on more robust revenue, while Coates missed by -2% due to competition impacting pricing. WesTrac was in line, with reduced product sales offset by a higher margin, and profitability improved on a better services revenue mix.

A dividend of 32c per share (FF) was announced and FY26 guidance was reiterated at “low-to-mid-point digit” growth.

The broker tweaks FY26 EPS forecast up 1% and down -1% in FY27.

See also SGH downgrade.

SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/2

Heading into the reporting season, UBS is positive on the Australian Steel sector. US listed steel mills have outperformed the S&P500 by around 30% over three months, reflecting earnings upgrades driven by higher 2026 steel price expectations, explain the analysts.

UBS raises its target for Sims to $25.00 from $17.15 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, arguing Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) is emerging as a potential thesis changer following stronger visibility on earnings sustainability.

The broker’s greater confidence stems from Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) prices doubling and channel checks suggesting market deficits will persist through 2027.

Note: SLS recovers and resells memory components from decommissioned IT equipment, meaning rising DDR4 pricing directly boosts margins and earnings.

UBS also highlights improving conditions in the Metals division, with non-ferrous prices rising on supply constraints and ferrous scrap prices reaching near one-year highs, providing broader earnings tailwinds.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Citi’s target for Temple & Webster has remained at $15.38 despite materially-lower forecasts following yesterday’s interim result. The broker does upgrade its rating to Buy from Neutral.

A summary of the analyst’s research yesterday follows.

In an initial response, Citi reports Temple & Webster’s 1H26 profit missed expectations by -32%. Revenue was broadly in line, but gross profit margin was 31.4%, below 32.9% consensus, suggesting discounting picked up.

The result revealed 1H26 revenue growth accelerated since the AGM trading update, as Citi had flagged it would, but this may have been discounting-led. 

The net cash balance increased to $161m, which provides the company with optionality to accelerate growth organically and inorganically.

While the acceleration in revenue is positive,Citi suggests the deterioration in gross margins is likely to be in focus today.

VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades Vault Minerals to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target of $7.70 from $6.50 and lifts FY26 EPS forecast by 7% with FY27 unchanged.

VULCAN STEEL LIMITED ((VSL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Heading into the reporting season, UBS is positive on the Australian Steel sector. US listed steel mills have outperformed the S&P500 by around 30% over three months, reflecting earnings upgrades driven by higher 2026 steel price expectations, explain the analysts.

The broker raises its target for Vulcan Steel to $7.65 from $7.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, citing early signs of an Australian end-market recovery.

2026 housing starts are forecast to rise 8% and Queensland continuing to benefit from strong residential and infrastructure activity, explain the analysts.

The broker also notes recent data and channel checks suggest the New Zealand economy has bottomed, although any recovery is expected to lag by 6-12 months and is not assumed in forecasts.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst upgrades West African Resources to Outperform from Neutral and lifts the target to $5 from $3.90, with a rise in 2026 EPS estimate by 3%.

Downgrade

ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED. ((A11)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie has updated commodity price forecasts with 2026 iron ore up 4%, copper up 11%, nickel up 16%, gold up 2%, silver up 9% and lithium up 95%, with the analyst noting the price forecasts for lithium and nickel are above consensus.

Sectorally the broker is overweight spodumene, with the price forecast for 2026 to US$1,809/t, and the nickel price forecast up 16% for 2025 and 13% for 2026. The broker is even-weight rated on copper, iron ore, met-coal, aluminium, thermal coal, silver and manganese.

The analyst downgrades Atlantic Lithium to Underperform from Neutral and retains a 24c target price.

AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED ((ACL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Australian Clinical Labs to $2.80 from $3.50 and downgrades to Hold from Buy. The company is still viewed as a “quality operator”.

The analysts anticipate a deteriorating operating backdrop, with funding cuts, slower episode growth, and rising wage pressures weighing on near-term earnings.

The broker highlights flat sector volumes in 1H26, upcoming Fair Work wage increases from April, and the loss of the Australian Defence Force outpatient contract as key headwinds into FY27.

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Citi notes the share prices of infrastructure stocks under coverage have lagged amid rising Australian bond yields, but analysis shows defensiveness improves as correlations weaken at higher yield levels.

Overall, the broker believes much of the bond yield impact has already been priced in, improving entry points across the sector.

The exception is Atlas Arteria, due to political risk in France and unfavourable FX dynamics weighing on cash flow growth, the analysts explain, limiting DPS upside despite an attractive yield.

Infrastructure defensiveness is acknowledged but risks temper the broker’s overall enthusiasm for Atlas. The target is lowered to $4.80 from $5.70 and the rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Sell from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/2

ANZ Bank is tracking ahead of expectations, on the face of it, Morgans suggests while the beat to estimates was largely because of the speed of cost reductions.

Minor adjustments are made to FY26-28 EPS estimates to reflect market revenue strength and lower impairment charges as well as higher shares on issue. The broker downgrades to Sell from Trim given the reduced return potential at current prices.

The stock may have the lowest trading multiples among domestic peers but Morgans believes it is relatively more complex because of a larger exposure to institutional and international activities and greater reliance on wholesale and term deposit funding. Target edges up to $32.65 from $32.57.

See also ANZ upgrade.

AMOTIV LIMITED ((AOV)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0

In the wake of interim results for Amotiv, Morgans lowers its target to $9.15 from $11.25 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, even though expectations were met and modest sales and earnings growth were achieved, and despite an undemanding valuation. 

FY26 EBITA guidance was also reaffirmed.

The problem for the analyst relates to mixed segment outcomes. Resilient Powertrain and Undercar (PTU) and Light Parts & Electrical (LPE) performances were supported by cost savings, but offset by weaker 4WD volumes and margin pressure, explains the broker.

Limited near-term catalysts are evident to Morgans, with offshore investments expected to take time to translate into earnings.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Macquarie downgrades ASX to Neutral from Outperform, citing a review of the strategic direction of the business and change in CEO. Management has committed to providing FY27 cost guidance prior to June 30 despite cancelling its investor briefing.

The first half dividend represents a 75% payout ratio versus guidance of 75-85% and management expects the payout will be at the lower end of guidance for at least the next three dividends. Target is reduced to $56 from $58.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/4

Beach Energy’s 1H26 result was hard to analyse, Morgans relates, with aggressive accounting treatments inflating underlying earnings and masking weaker operational reality.

The broker points to the sharp dividend cut as a clearer signal, implying capital conservation and concerns around the forward free cash flow (FCF) profile.

Waitsia LNG swap arrangements represent a material headwind, the analyst notes, with future production delivered without revenue recognition weighing on cash flow and earnings.

With declining reserves and limited visibility on cash generation, valuation risk is seen to the downside until an acquisition emerges. 

Morgans lowers its target for Beach Energy to $1.09 from $1.22 and downgrades to Trim from Hold

DPM METALS INC ((DPM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

DPM Metals delivered fourth quarter adjusted net profit of US$170m, below Macquarie’s estimates.

The stock has had a strong performance, up 30% in the year to date, and after incorporating the three-year outlook the broker believes it is trading on a fair valuation, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform.

2026 capital costs are now higher, with additional capital brought forward at Coka Rakita and more expenditure at Vares. Target is down to $58 from $59.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgan Stanley downgrades GQG Partners to Equal-weight from Overweight as risks to flows are envisaged for the next 12-18 months.

The broker’s tracking indicates the majority of strategies remain below benchmarks on a three-year and five-year basis. As a result, outflows are likely to persist.

Earnings estimates are downgraded by -7% for FY26 and -14% for FY27. Target is reduced to $1.75 from $2.65. Industry view is In-Line.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/1

UBS is increasingly bullish regarding the outlook for uranium as policy becomes more certain and supply remains soft. There are challenges and cost increases in bringing new uranium supply on line as well as inflation pressures in key producing regions.

The broker now envisages prices averaging US$95/lb over 2026-28. Demand momentum is expected to continue in 2026 with the crystallisation of US policy designed to speed ramping up of nuclear power and the further development of US stockpiling policies.

Rating on Paladin Energy is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, as the shares have gone “too far”, UBS points out, while the target is raised to $12.25 from $9.00.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

South32 reported “bumper” 1H26 earnings, comfortably ahead of consensus and close to Morgans’ estimate, riding consistent production and higher base and precious metals prices. The dividend beat by 15% and $100m is added to the buyback.

Management warning of a second budget review for Hermosa capex was the clear negative, Morgans notes. While on the positive side, the capex-heavy Clark decline has been completed. South32 talked down any US tariff impact.

While Morgans expects the upgrade cycle probably has some way to go, the broker now views the value on-offer as far diminished versus a few months ago, after a 40% increase in share price since early December.

Target unchanged at $5.00, downgrade to Accumulate from Buy.

SGH LIMITED ((SGH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

SGH Ltd reported results that beat market expectations slightly, reiterating FY26 guidance of low to mid single digit earnings growth. Boral delivered the bulk of operational growth.

WesTrac did well, Macquarie suggest, to offset a -23% capital sales decline, driven by efficiencies and growing large-scale rebuilds in the Services business. Coates performed relatively well in a tough context but missed expectations.

Growth is harder to come by without M&A, the broker warns, and multiples are at a premium. A key risk is SGH succeeding at value-adding, accretive M&A. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, target rises to $54.30 from $53.05.

See also SGH upgrade.

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