ALPHA HPA LIMITED (A4N)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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10/02/2026

1

Speculative Buy

$1.50

183.02%

Alpha HPA has completed a $225m equity placement underpinning the commercialisation of its HPA First Stage 2 project. This was supported by the Australian government's fund that is now a 7% shareholder in the stock as well as existing substantial shareholders Orica ((ORI)) and AustralianSuper.

The company has updated the timeline and economic parameters of the project and this now supports a higher average product price, up 14% on the May 2024 assumption.

Over 2026 Bell Potter expects the company will sign more offtake letters of intent and progress to sales contracts. Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced $1.50 from $2.00.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -3.30 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -4.10 cents.

12/02/2026

1

Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy

$1.20

126.42%

Canaccord initiates coverage on Alpha HPA at Speculative Buy with a $1.20 target, arguing the market is under pricing the Gladstone HPA First opportunity in high purity alumina used in lithium-ion batteries, LEDs and semiconductor applications.

The broker sees tightening ex-China supply, with demand expected to outpace new supply through 2030.

Pricing assumptions have been lifted, supported by recent open orders averaging around US$29.6/kg.

Canaccord believes the project offers strong operating leverage, with earnings (EBITDA) breakeven achievable at roughly 19% of nameplate capacity.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus -2.10 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 0.40 cents.