VULCAN STEEL LIMITED (VSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

22/10/2026

1

Buy

$6.40

14.08%

The first quarter update from Vulcan Steel was positive, UBS asserts, as revenue was up 39% and EBITDA up 51%. Underlying sales tonnage per day grew across Australasia, suggesting end-market activity is trending in the right direction.

The broker expects first half revenue of NZ$662m and EBITDA of NZ$80m, assuming a first:second half skew of 49%:51%. This aligns with the company's commentary that the industry is starting to stabilise, although the pace of recovery is uncertain.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.40 from $7.00.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.86 cents and EPS of 21.72 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 24.22 cents and EPS of 32.57 cents.

27/08/2026

2

Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral

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Jarden upgraded to Overweight rating for Vulcan Steel with its target price decreased to NZ$7.61 from NZ$7.74 following an FY26 financial result featuring adjusted EBITDA of NZ$130.3m, up NZ$18m on the prior corresponding period.

Operational performance was supported by underlying second-half momentum signalling a clear start to a recovery cycle, though this was partly offset by cost growth exceeding expectations and a softer dividend.

Jarden indicates that the outlook points to an improving New Zealand backdrop alongside Australian headwinds partially offset by structural industry improvements.

The analyst highlights that continued earnings recovery is anticipated as volumes normalise despite visibility being limited by the absence of formal FY27 earnings guidance.