Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 06, 2022

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALL   CCX   DGL   FBU   FFX   HAS   INA   MGH   NST   OPY   SLA   SUN   WGO  

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $34.81

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden revises its revenue estimate for Aristocrat Leisure up by 3%.

Sensor Tower data points to weakness in the June quarter but Plarium Play outperformed, the broker notes. Staffing issues in the wake of the Ukraine conflict could jeopardise gains.

Jarden says investor feedback suggests the company's focus on capital structure and shareholder returns has been well received and speculates investors' preference may be for an on-market share buyback of $500m a year.

EPS forecasts rise 1% to 3% across FY22 and FY24. Target price eases to $40 from $40.14. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.81 Difference: $5.19
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.11, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 172.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.4, implying annual growth of 27.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 169.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.87

Jarden rates ((CCX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden downgrades City Chic Collective's target price to $2.10 from $6.17 after channel checks indicated a sharper-than-expected fall in top-line growth for the plus-size women's clothing market in the US.

Combine that with rising labour, transport and materials costs, and you have the classic pincer attack. And did we mention over-supply due to inventory stocking during covid?

Overweight rating retained, the broker taking a longer view.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.23
If CCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 53.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGL    DGL GROUP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.76

Bell Potter rates ((DGL)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter lowers its target price for DGL Group to $3.50 from $4.50 to reflect a general de-rating in multiples for the Industrials sector and the application of a higher rate to discount future cash flows.

In regard to profit forecasts, the broker makes modest upgrades across FY23-24 after incorporating the acquisition of Total Coolants.

The analyst is positive on the 1H FY23 outlook based upon tailwinds and early lead indicators for the ag-chem and Used Lead Acid Battery (ULAB) businesses. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on July 5, 2022.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.74
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.54.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.52

Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Jarden expects mid-cycle earnings will drive postive sentiment for Fletcher Building once housing prices stabilise, following the company's investment day.

Mangement also guided to margin expansion and growth opportunities, the company planning to spend -NZ$500m over three years, and Jarden expects this extra investment will be accretive, and its research points to above-average market growth.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price rises to NZ$6.40 from NZ$6.14.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Current Price is $4.52. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 63.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.61 cents and EPS of 55.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.36 cents and EPS of 63.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFX    FIREFINCH LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((FFX)) as Under Review (-1) –

Firefinch's June-quarter production from Morila substantially missed Canaccord Genuity's forecasts due to unstable politic conditions, and the company's Speculative Buy rating is now Under Review, as is the 70c target price.

The company blamed the miss on poor availability of mining equipment resulting from sanctions imposed on landlocked Mali by neighbouring countries due to the instatement of a non-democratically elected government.

The company says equipment is now on site. Canaccord Genuity says that while this might relieve the situation, rising costs are also expected to bite and the company's VAT refunds have also been suspended to support the Malian government from sanctions.

Firefinch plans to halt mining at N'Tiola and relocate equipment to the Morila Super Pit to help with production, which will still be down roughly -20% to -30% – strict cost controls are in place and exploration has been suspended.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Current Price is $0.20. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $4.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Buy (1) –

Hastings Technology Metals has published updated data on the Yangiban project in WA from February 22. 

Total project capital expenditure is estimated to be -$582m over 15 years and Canaccord Genuity says the Neodymium and Praseodymium/Total Rare Earths Oxide ratio suggests high basket prices and that the project could deliver average annual earnings (EBITDA) of roughly $250m.

The broker says project finance is the final hurdle and that most of the funding is now in place.

Canaccord Genuity also speculates the company may have downstream ambitions after announcing several expressions of interest from alternative debt/equity financiers to assist with funding. 

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $6.70 from $8.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $2.56
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 138.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 414.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.12

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Buy (1) –

Ingenia Communities has retained guidance in its recent FY22 settlement and guidance update, vindicating Jarden's confidence in the company. 

Ingenia expects to settle 409 homes in FY22 and 400-425 homes in FY24.

Jarden considers the forward pipeline assumptions to be conservative and expects a rise in on-balance-sheet completions in FY23, combined with extra Sun joint-venture contributions, to underpin a three-year EPS compound annual growth rate of 9.8% – roughly twice the broker's estimate REIT growth under coverage.

The broker acknowledges the declining house-price environment but believes demographics and development times favour land-lease operators over residential REITS.

As developments come on line, the broker notes the company also enjoys stabilised passive income from its Holiday division. Buy rating retained. Target price slips to $5.70 from $5.80.

This report was published on July 1, 2022.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $1.58
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.49.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.74

Moelis rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

Maas Group has announced the acquisition of Schwarz Excavations for -$36m, including $3.6m in scrip. Moelis notes the acquisition is in line with the company's vertical integration strategy and expects it wil provide significant synergies.

Including an eleven month contribution from the acquisition into its FY23 forecasts drives the broker's expected earnings up 10% to $182.9m from $166.2m, assuming around a $9m contribution from synergies in the coming year. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.65 from $5.80.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $1.91
If MGH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.40.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.21

Shaw and Partners rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Following an update on the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines mill expansion, Shaw and Partners notes there will be no impact upon dividends, as the expansion will be fully funded from cashflows. The project is not expected to impact existing production plans.

The mill expansion provides an additional 200kozpa of gold production, and is expected to lower costs by -$200/oz.

The Buy rating and $12.80 target price are maintained.

This report was published on July 5, 2022.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $5.59
If NST meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.39, suggesting upside of 63.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of -77.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of 61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPY    OPENPAY GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.16

Shaw and Partners rates ((OPY)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners finds the market has reacted positively to the news Openpay Group is streamlining its focus on a path to profitability for its Australian operation, taking a pause on US business to reallocate investment and funding domestically. 

With industry leading growth, the broker notes Australian operations are approaching profitability by June 2023. Current difficulties in the US market made it difficult for Openpay Group to secure an investor, leading it to materially reduce its US cost base and headcount. 

Following an exit from the UK market, the company confirmed it has not ruled out an exit from the US market but will continue to look for commercialisation opportunities for its platform in both the US and the UK. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.00 are retained.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.84
If OPY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 525% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLA    SILK LASER AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $2.09

Shaw and Partners rates ((SLA)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Silk Laser Australia, one of Australia's largest non-surgical aesthetics networks with 121 clinics and more than 414,000 active clients.

The broker notes at its last trading update in May, the company guided to full year earnings exceeding $20m. When compared to earnings of $6.2m across 52 clinics in FY20, Shaw and Partners highlights average earnings per clinic have increased to $165,000 from $119,000.

Among a number of key growth drivers for the company, Shaw and Partners expects Silk Laser Australia can benefit from the "lipstick effect" in the inflationary environment, which sees consumers willing to spend on low cost luxury goods during economic downturns. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price fo $2.80.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.71
If SLA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $10.81

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

Suncorp Group continues to guide to a group underlying margin of 10% to 12% in FY23 thanks to higher bond yields. Jarden expects premium rate momentum to hasten, offseting rising reinsurance costs and higher catastrophe budgets.

FY22 catastrophe guidance is unchanged at $1.1bn but the company's FY23 budget is $50m to $100m higher than forecast, nor has the company disclosed reinsurance costs, notes the broker.

EPS forecasts fall -1.9% in FY22 and -2.2% in FY23. Target price falls to $12.60 from $13. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $1.79
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 24.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 64.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.5, implying annual growth of -19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.4, implying annual growth of 35.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGO    WARREGO ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGO)) as Hold (3) –

Warrego Energy reports the West Erregulla 3 project has been deepened, revealing a gross gas column of 60m in the Kingia Sandstone, and no gas water contact.

That said, the broker has concerns about the reserve upside of the project.

Hold rating and 22c target price retained.

This report was published on July 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.09
If WGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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