Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 16, 2023

This story features ADRIATIC METALS PLC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADT

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADT   BC8   EHE   EMN   IAG   JIN   NWE   REG   TLC  

ADT    ADRIATIC METALS PLC

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.32

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADT)) as Buy (1) –

Latest drilling results from Adriatic Metals reveal the company continues to target previous intercepts to extend mineralisation at the Vares project. Canaccord Genuity reports a a further nine holes along the Rupice Northwest, as well as seven awaiting assay.

Drilling will continue, but the broker expects Adriatic Metals has enough data to declare a maiden inferred resource by April. With further infill, the broker sees potential for an updated mine plan for Rupice Northwest in 2023, possibly adding 1-2m tonnes to the production profile.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $3.95 are retained.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.63
If ADT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Buy rating retained as Shaw and Partners had already previously indicated it thinks both Coyote and Paulsens offer exciting exploration upside for Black Cat Syndicate.

Price target remains 77c as the analyst digests the latest drilling results with all 19 holes having encountered mineralisation. The broker is expecting a resource upgrade for both Paulsens and Coyote in the not too distant future.

This report was published on January 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.39
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE    ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.06

Moelis rates ((EHE)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis adjusts its estimates after tinkering with earnings assumptions (excluding covid costs and reimbursements).

The broker also cuts June-half occupancy forecasts to reflect the December covid outbreak (numbers are still rising – the broker noting gradual signs of recovery as at October).

Moelis is keeping an eye peeled to the Independent Pricing Authority's pricing recommendations due this half, effective from July.

The broker appreciates management's track record and balance sheet, expecting these will drive continued growth in a distressed and fragmented market.

Buy rating and $2.75 target price.

This report was published on January 12, 2023.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.69
If EHE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.79.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.47.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMN    EURO MANGANESE INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMN)) as Buy (1) –

Euro Manganese had kicked off the year entering into its first non-binding offtake term sheet with battery manufacturer Verkor, with the company anticipating first shipments in 2027. 

Canaccord Genuity highlights while pricing is based on index adjusted benchmark prices, an agreed floor price will allow Euro Manganese to make debt covenants and provides a solid foundation for the company's sales book. The broker expects its ESG credentials will see Euro Manganese establish itself as a partner of choice in Europe. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $1.15 are retained.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.765
If EMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 199% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.25.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.82

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden says Insurance Australia Group's early renewal with Berkshire Hathaway de-risks the company's medium-term outlook, providing certainty over the company's capital structure for the next five to seven years.

Management at the insurer has reiterated renewal outcomes support its medium-term margin target, and the broker expects stronger top-line growth in FY24 and FY25, and a compound annual growth rate of 9%.

Buy rating and $5.65 target price retained.

This report was published on January 12, 2023.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.83
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of 132.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 38.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $15.37

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden observes strong growth in Powerball and Oz Lotto in the December half and the broker revises up its Lottery segment revenue and earnings.

EPS forecasts for Jumbo Interactive fall -1% in FY23; and are steady in FY24 and FY25, the broker suspecting it did not increase its operating costs sufficiently in the previous update.

The broker says Lottery Corp's focus on jackpot products is proving a windfall for Jumbo Interactive, given most of the latter's sales come from Powerball and Oz Lotto.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $13.98 from $14.06.

This report was published on January 12, 2023.

Target price is $13.98 Current Price is $15.37 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 8.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.1, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWE    NORWEST ENERGY NL

Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NWE)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has updated on Norwest Energy given recent merger and and acquisition activity in the Perth basin, as well as the company's recent exploration success rates.

The broker considers bids for Warrego Energy ((WGO)) from Strike Energy ((STX)), Beach Energy ((BPT)) and Hancock, represent a positive read-through for Norwest Energy. 

While Norwest is yet to book reserves for its Lockyer Deep asset, Canaccord Genuity expects the discovery is likely larger than the 1.1 trillion cubic feet pre-drill estimate. The company has reported record test flows for the Perth basin.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 7 cents from 6 cents. 

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.001
If NWE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 43.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 69.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $1.89

Moelis rates ((REG)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis adjusts its near term occupancy estimates for Regis Healthcare to reflect the December covid outbreak and to exclude covid costs and reimbursements. The broker has yet to include a 15% sector wage increase.

The medium term outlook remains positive in the broker's view given weak growth in supply, which is likely to meet a post-covid demand recovery.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.63 from $2.72 in September.

This report was published on January 12, 2023.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.74
If REG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.36.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.21.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLC    LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $4.84

Jarden rates ((TLC)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden observes strong growth in Powerball and Oz Lotto in the December half and the broker revises up its forecasts for Lottery segment revenue and earnings.

EPS forecasts for Lottery Corp rise 4% in FY23; and 2% in FY24 and FY25.

Underweight rating retained, the broker noting Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)) is outperforming Lottery Corp. It also considers the company to be expensive relative to the 10-year bond rate.

Target price rise to $4.11 from $4.03.

This report was published on January 12, 2023.

Target price is $4.11 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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