Weekly Reports | Sep 26 2023
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The spot uranium price continued its surge last week as the SPUT has sellers backing off.
-SPUT has sellers backing off
-Spot U3O8 price up 23% in two months
-New nuclear builds planned globally
-Utilities looking to buy in term markets
By Greg Peel
The week before last, the Sprott Physical Uranium Fund (SPUT) filed a new US$250m prospectus with Canadian regulatory authorities. Following the announcement, SPUT’s share price traded at a premium to its net asset value for the first time since February this year, industry consultant TradeTech reports.
The fund has issued 2.7m new units and increased its cash position to US$52.9m, and completed a purchase of 100,000lbs last Friday after the close of business for January delivery.
Meanwhile in Niger, French nuclear group Orano has announced that due to the ongoing closure of the West African nation’s main supply corridor and diminishing stocks of chemical products, its Somair uranium site has implemented a gradual reorganisation of work by bringing forward maintenance activities.
Loss of production in Niger, along with lower production expectations from both existing and emerging producers (particularly Cameco), combined with ongoing demand from the SPUT, has led to sellers in the spot uranium market pulling back offers or pulling back from the market altogether, TradeTech reports.
And don’t mention uncertainty over Russian enriched supply.
Buyers continue to push bids higher, but sellers are reluctant to sell in quantity. TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator rose another US$3.00 to US$68.50/lb last week.
The indicator is now at its highest level in over twelve and a half years, just prior to the Fukushima accident. The spot price has gained 23% over the last two months, 40% year to date and 41% year on year.
None of which would come as a surprise to uranium market analysts, who have been positive on the uranium price and uranium mining stocks for the best part of the year.
Australian-listed Paladin Energy ((PDN)), to pick one such stock (mining to recommence in Namibia shortly), is up 80% since May.
Better get a move on
Last week Poland signed an agreement to advance the construction of the country’s first nuclear plant. The UK is seeking investors for a new plant and Sweden is looking to add to its existing fleet.
As upward pressure mounts in the spot uranium market, sellers are also looking to increase their long-term uranium price offers, TradeTech reports. Buyers are working toward the realignment of procurement and sales strategies related to changing political, logistical, and commercial alliances.
Notably, several utilities are advancing plans to enter the term market later this year to secure material to fill uncommitted needs, or in some cases build inventory.
TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$62.00/lb (mid-term) and US$60.00/lb (long), but will be updated at the end of this week.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 22/09/2023 | 0.1200 |  9.09% |
$0.24 | $0.05 | |||
| AGE | 22/09/2023 | 0.0510 |  -25.00% |
$0.07 | $0.03 | |||
| BKY | 22/09/2023 | 0.3650 | – 5.19% |
$0.80 | $0.25 | |||
| BMN | 22/09/2023 | 2.4700 | – 4.63% |
$2.75 | $1.19 | $3.200 | 29.6% |
|
| BOE | 22/09/2023 | 4.5000 | 2.97% |
$4.55 | $1.97 | 54.4 | $3.600 | -20.0% |
| DYL | 22/09/2023 | 1.0650 | – 2.29% |
$1.13 | $0.48 | |||
| EL8 | 22/09/2023 | 0.4500 | – 6.25% |
$0.56 | $0.27 | |||
| ERA | 22/09/2023 | 0.0380 | – 2.56% |
$0.30 | $0.03 | |||
| LOT | 22/09/2023 | 0.2450 | -10.91% |
$0.29 | $0.15 | $0.530 | 116.3% |
|
| NXG | 22/09/2023 | 9.5000 | – 2.46% |
$10.40 | $0.00 | |||
| PDN | 22/09/2023 | 0.9850 | – 1.99% |
$1.04 | $0.52 | 115.7 | $1.123 | 14.0% |
| PEN | 22/09/2023 | 0.1100 | – 4.35% |
$0.20 | $0.09 | $0.270 | 145.5% |
|
| SLX | 22/09/2023 | 3.2400 | -12.43% |
$5.32 | $2.56 | $5.800 | 79.0% |
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