Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 28, 2024

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   ALQ   AQZ   ARL   ARX   CXO   FPH   IAG   LNW   LRS   MOZ   MRM   PMV (3)   PTM   RMD   SNL   SPZ   SUN   WBC  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.36

Jarden rates ((29M)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden downgrades its rating for 29Metals to Underweight from Neutral and lowers the target to 30c from 38c following suspension of  operations at Capricorn Copper due to heavy rainfall in the March quarter.

Capricorn Copper's earnings forecasts are largely removed from the broker's financial model and a $50m valuation is now assumed.

With the new Managing Director Mr Palmer commencing on May 1, the analysts are hopeful of a full reset on the Capricorn asset.

Jarden continues to believe additional liquidity will be required with a forecast for the existing cash balance to be depleted by the end of 2024. A $60m liquidity event is assumed.

This report was published on March 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 20.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $13.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs suggests the focus for management moving forward will be on integration and business improvement of recent acquisitions, rather than additional scope growth.

ALS Ltd's FY22-FY27 scope growth target is to acquire around $500m of revenue.

The recent acquisitions of Northeast US-based York Analytical Laboratories and Europe-based Wessling Holding GmbH & Co. KG will add circa $195m to scope growth of around $150m in FY23, explain the analysts.

The total acquisition cost for both are approximately -$225m, to be debt funded from existing facilities.

Buy. Target $13.60.

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $0.55
If ALQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.29, suggesting downside of -6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.2, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.90

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Alliance Aviation Services has announced the likely reallocation of four E190 aircrafts to its operating fleet, previously flagged for parting out, to meet strong demand.

As per Wilsons, the announcement makes no change to the capital commitment made by Alliance Aviation Services to purchase the E190s, but will likely result in modest earnings upgrades in outer years.

The Overweight rating and target price of $4.35 are retained.

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $1.45
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.15.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARL    ARDEA RESOURCES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.72

Petra Capital rates ((ARL)) as Buy (1) –

Ardea Resources is negotiating a binding cooperation agreement relating the funding of the Kalgoorlie nickel project definitive feasibility study with the Sumitomo Metal Mining-Mitsubishi Corporation consortium, having agreed to a scope for work and budget for the study in February. 

An agreement between all parties is expected to be completed in April, which Petra Capital notes reflects a slight slippage in the timeline. The broker does not consider this a major set back, but rather likely reflective of typical negotiation delays.

The Buy rating and target price of 74 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.015
If ARL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.06.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.56

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

In an initial update from 22 March 2024, Wilsons responded to Aroa Biosurgery’s US-based channel partner TELA Bio having announced FY23 results. Revenue was in line with revised guidance and Wilsons' estimate, and FY24 guidance is also in line.

Guidance to 27-30% growth in FY24 will be predominantly driven by sales in OviTex and OviTex PRS, in addition to OviTex IHR, expected to launch in 2Q24.

Wilsons suggested the result should dispel any concern that OviTex is in a sub-growth phase within the US market. The broker remains confident this product’s performance will continue to drive growth for TELA and hence Aroa in the near-term.

Then followed another update on March 26:

With TELA Bio releasing its fourth quarter results recently, Wilsons has made a number of readthroughs for Aroa Biosurgery.

The broker points out a clear focus from TELO Bio on tightening inventory, which it expects will continue moving forward. Wilsons similarly does not anticipate much in the way of inventory increase from Aroa Biosurgery over the first half of FY25.

Wilsons notes there is no change to its fundamentals on the stock. It considers Aroa Biosurgery's product suite to offer clinical, logistical and economic benefits across multiple segments.

The Overweight rating and target price of $1.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.435
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.02.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 305.41.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.15

Wilsons rates ((CXO)) as Underweight (5) –

Core Lithium announced final assays from its 2023 drilling program. The headlines outlined encouraging new drilling results at the satellite Ah Hoy and Seadog prospects within the Finniss region, Wilsons notes.

While these are encouraging results, they must be considered in the context of the company's transition from an operator back to being an explorer, and Wilsons would caution against too much excitement in the near-term.

The broker believes the long-term future of the company will be dependent on exploration success to find a deposit of sufficient size and scale in the region which can underpin materially lower mining costs than the small-scale deposits of Finniss.

Underweight and 10c target retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 150.00.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $24.33

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Underweight (4) –

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has lifted its full year revenue guidance to NZ$1.73bn, from a previous NZ$1.70bn, with underlying net profit guidance increasing to NZ$260-265m. 

As per company commentary, the upgrade is driven by improved performance from hospital consumables across the second half and ongoing strong performance from the Evora mask.

Jarden has adjusted its second half forecasts accordingly, noting its operating expenditure forecast continues to look appropriate. Forecast earnings lift 4% for the full year.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to NZ$23.20 from NZ$22.00.

This report was published on March 22, 2024.

Current Price is $24.33. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $22.10, suggesting downside of -8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.47 cents and EPS of 42.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.40 cents and EPS of 51.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of 29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.44

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Jarden sees growing potential for positive earnings surprises for General Insurers on the ASX.

After upgrading Insurance Australia Group to Buy from Overweight, the broker's order of preference becomes QBE Insurance (leading on gross written premium growth), then Insurance Australia Group followed by Suncorp Group.

Now that there are two purer-play domestic general insurers, following Suncorp Group's yet-to-be-completed Bank sale, Jarden compares Suncorp to Insurance Australia Group.

The broker prefers Insurance Australia Group for its increasing optionality and because it is trading at a greater discount to historical valuation multiples.

On a relative basis, the analysts see greater upside risk to Insurance Australia Group's underlying insurance trading ratio (ITR), which is set to eclipse management's 15% target from the 2H of FY24.

Jarden also see scopes for $400m per year of buybacks over FY25-FY27. Target $6.95.

This report was published on March 25, 2024.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.51
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $160.50

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Overweight (2) –

While it's smaller in scale than the Australasian Gaming Expo, Jarden believes the Australasian Hospitality Gaming Expo is a great barometer to check in on gaming suppliers, customers and the latest and greatest of product available.

Based on direct customer feedback and booth attendance levels, Light & Wonder arguably displayed more innovation, positive momentum and scalability than other participants, the broker suggests.

It is clear to Jarden the Australian industry has now moved from an effective monopoly to duopoly status, with Light & Wonder’s renewed game development and cross-channel focus now rivalling Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)). Overweight retained, target rises to $164 from $161.

This report was published on March 25, 2024.

Target price is $164.00 Current Price is $160.50 Difference: $3.5
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 436.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 553.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.02.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRS    LATIN RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates a resource estimate upgrade for Latin Resources' Colina asset, with resource drilling returning multiple wide, high grade infill results, including 29 significant key intercepts.

A resource update is expected within the first half of the year, ahead of a definitive feasibility study in the second half.

The study is expected to explore feasibility of an enlarged, three-phase development, which Canaccord Genuity believes could see production capacity increased to 700,000 tonnes per annum.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 65 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 26, 2024.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.465
If LRS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 251% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MOZ    MOSAIC BRANDS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.14

Wilsons – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MRM    MMA OFFSHORE LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.63

Moelis rates ((MRM)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

MMA Offshore has entered a binding scheme implementation deed with Cyan MMA Holdings for acquisiton of all shares at $2.60 per share.

As per Moelis, the offer reflects a valuation of $1.03bn for the company, representing an 11% premium to the previous closing price.

MMA Offshore's board has unanimously recommended voting in favour of the bid, feeling it offers compelling value. A shareholder vote is expected by mid-July.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $2.60 from $2.30.

This report was published on March 25, 2024.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MRM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting downside of -0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of -40.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $31.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs raises its target for Premier Investments to $25.10 from $23.50 following 1H results and updated global growth estimates for Smiggle and Peter Alexander.

Group sales fell -1% short of the broker's forecast and were down by -2.8% year-on-year, while Retail earnings fell by -4.8%.

The broker's base case target of $$25.10 includes the current domestically-focused business with immaterial amounts of global sales factored-in for Peter Alexander and a $223m global sales forecast for Smiggle in FY27.

Under a low/high scenario analysis by Goldman, the global opportunties for Smiggle/Peter Alexander result in a valuation range of between $22.70-$31.90/share. 

The Sell rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $31.07 Difference: minus $5.97 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.30, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.7, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.8, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

Premier Investments posted a beat on first half retail earnings thanks to well-controlled costs keeping margins steady in the face of weaker sales. The company confirmed the proposed demerger of Smiggle and consideration of the same for Peter Alexander in 2025.

Jarden questions whether Premier Investments would be better spinning off Apparel into another entity and minimising dis-synergies. But either way, the broker expects demergers would lead to a re-rate.

There was positive news on new store rollouts but Jarden would like to see a reacceleration of sales for Smiggle. Neutral retained, target rises to $30.80 from $25.70.

This report was published on March 26, 2024.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $31.07 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.30, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.7, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.8, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((PMV)) as Buy (1) –

Premier Investments' first half retail earnings beat guidance by 4.9%, with strong execution on the cost of doing business a highlight for Petra Capital. A strong margin result offset a slip in sales.

The broker has made no material changes to retail earnings forecasts, reflecting a conservative stance in difficult macro conditions. Petra is yet to make a meaningful allowance for Peter Alexander's expansion into the UK.

Target rises to $34.25 from $29.50, Buy retained.

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $31.07 Difference: $3.18
If PMV meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.30, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.7, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.8, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.03

Jarden rates ((PTM)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden highlights targeted cost savings by Platinum Asset Management are significantly higher-than-expected, partly offset by flagged losses of institutional funds under management (FUM).

Management is aiming for at least $25m in annualised run-rate cost savings, equivalent to 26% of the annualised 1H cost base, point out the analysts.

The broker raises its target to $1.15 from $1.06. The Underweight recommendation is maintained as a 27% share price rally post 1H results, based on cost-out optimism, has now been derailed by the negative FUM announcement.

This report was published on March 28, 2024.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.12
If PTM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of -17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $29.93

Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (1) –

ResMed's stock continues to recover as the outlook for maintained CPAP global market share solidifies, says Wilsons.

The broker is anticipating Eli Lilly to announce top line data from studies relating to its SURMOUNT-OSA trial, which has explored efficacy both as a monotreatment and in combination with CPAP. 

Wilsons sees no potential negative for CPAP devices from a positive readout. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.90 from $31.28.

This report was published on March 26, 2024.

Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $29.93 Difference: $2.97
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.21, suggesting upside of 13.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.49 cents and EPS of 111.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.92 cents and EPS of 127.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.4, implying annual growth of 13.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNL    SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $18.68

Moelis rates ((SNL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage of Supply Network with a Buy rating and $21.26 target.

Supply Network is a leading independent supplier of truck and bus aftermarket replacement parts. Through its brand, Multispares, the company primarily services A&NZ’s trucking and bus markets.

Underlying road freight demand should be supported by population growth, the broker suggests, leading to an increase in kilometers travelled pa. After accounting for price increases of 3-4%, Moelis estimates that the industry is growing at mid-single digits pa.

Aftermarket parts suppliers like Supply Network target vehicles aged more than 5 years and dominate market share in vehicles aged more than 15. This part of the market has grown ahead of the overall fleet.

Supply Network is well positioned to benefit, Moelis believes.

This report was published on March 24, 2024.

Target price is $21.26 Current Price is $18.68 Difference: $2.58
If SNL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.40 cents and EPS of 75.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.84.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 83.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.42

Petra Capital rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Early hints of a UK election in 2024 could prove a positive for Smart Parking, says Petra Capital, noting the current timeline would make it increasingly difficult for the government to impose a new private parking code before an October election. 

Having withdrawn the code, which set requirements for private parking, in June 2022, the governement has since undertaken consultation for new legislation. While draft findings are expected to be released shortly, consultation on this will not happen before May.

The Buy rating and target price of 64 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.22
If SPZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $16.49

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden sees growing potential for positive earnings surprises for General Insurers on the ASX.

After upgrading Insurance Australia Group to Buy from Overweight, the broker's order of preference becomes QBE Insurance (leading on gross written premium growth), then Insurance Australia Group followed by Suncorp Group.

Now that there are two purer-play domestic general insurers, following Suncorp Group's yet-to-be-completed Bank sale, Jarden compares Suncorp to Insurance Australia Group.

The broker prefers Insurance Australia Group for its increasing optionality and because it is trading at a greater discount to historical valuation multiples.

Overweight for Suncorp Group. Target $16.80.

This report was published on March 25, 2024.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $16.49 Difference: $0.31
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.31, suggesting downside of -0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 107.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.2, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 106.50 cents and EPS of 104.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.9, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 88.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $26.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has described Westpac's update on its technology simplication as 'long awaited'. The program is seeking to simplify existing processes, reduce technology complexity and decommision duplicated systems.

The bank reiterated it expects investment spend requirements related to the program to be incorporated into total annual investment spend, anticipated to be -$1.8bn in FY24 and -$2.0bn each year following to FY28.

The program will account for 30% of investment spend during these years. The Neutral rating and target price of $23.41 are retained.

This report was published on March 27, 2024.

Target price is $23.41 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting downside of -6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 194.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.6, implying annual growth of -7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 188.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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