Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Traders stepped back from the U308 spot market awaiting President Trump's inauguration, while the IEA details a bullish outlook for nuclear energy.
-U308 spot market hits a lull
-Nuclear energy entering a new growth phase
-Analysts sharpen uranium stocks' earnings outlook
By Danielle Ecuyer
Politics loom large over uranium
The spectre of incoming President Trump's import tariffs weighed on the U308 spot market last week, according to industry consultants TradeTech.
Zero transactions were recorded between Monday and Thursday, with six transactions occurring on Friday.
One spot transaction took place in the morning session, TradeTech notes, with the consultant's spot price indicator declining by -US$0.25/lb to US$73.75/lb. Five trades were conducted in the afternoon at prices between US$79.25/lb and US$81/lb for the 2026 delivery window.
Over the previous two months, TradeTech's weekly spot price indicator has fallen by -11.1% and by -30.4% over the last year. At current levels, the U308 spot price of US$86.29 is still -14.5% below the 2024 average. TradeTech's mid-term price indicator sits at US$78/lb, and the long-term price indicator at US$82/lb.
The outgoing US administration imposed additional sanctions on more than 200 entities and individuals associated with Russia's energy sector to increase funding pressures for that country in the Ukraine war.
The consultants note sanctions against officials at the State Atomic Energy Corporation, Rosatom, were included. In response, the Russian government announced they are considering plans to offset the impacts of US sanctions.
TradeTech points to a positive tone among buyers in the term uranium market, who believe the suspension of Kazatomprom's joint venture with Cameco, the Inkai project, will be resolved in the coming weeks.
Nuclear energy outlook
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest report, The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, struck an upbeat tone for uranium and nuclear energy enthusiasts. The agency believes electricity demand will continue to grow. Over the past decade, electricity use has increased more than twice as fast as overall energy use, with electric vehicles, data centres, and AI-related applications driving demand for a "new era of growth in nuclear energy."
Interest in nuclear energy is at its highest level since the oil crisis of the 1970s, with more than 40 countries supporting nuclear energy expansion. The IEA estimates the global fleet of 420 reactors will generate record nuclear energy levels in 2025. After hydroelectric power, nuclear energy, at 10% of global generation, is the second-largest source of low-emissions electricity.
Some 70GWs of capacity from around 63 nuclear reactors are under construction, the agency notes, marking one of the highest levels since 1990. Annual investment in new plants and extending the life of existing reactors has risen over 50% in three years to over US$60bn.
From a technological standpoint, nuclear power is reliant on Chinese and Russian technologies. Of the 52 reactors under construction since 2017, 25 are Chinese-designed, and 23 are Russian-designed. The IEA stresses the high concentration of nuclear energy intellectual property, uranium production, and enrichment poses a geopolitical risk and underscores the need for increased diversity in supply chains.
Over half of the nuclear energy projects under construction are in China, which will surpass both the US and Europe for installed capacity by 2030. The IEA points to policies targeting the development of cost-competitive small modular reactors, with a goal of 40GW capacity by 2050.
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