In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 08-08-25

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This story features GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GGP
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Greatland Resources’ June quarter production report broadly met Moelis’ forecast as previously noted but FY26 guidance was softer.

The broker cut its production forecast for FY26 to 288.6koz from 312.6koz vs guidance of 260-310koz, and raised cost forecast to $2,550/oz from $2,517/oz before.

Target cut to $7.10 from $7.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold, with the broker believing the share price fall on FY26 outlook is overdone. 

PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises its target for Pexa Group to $17.75 from $16.20 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral.

The broker views NatWest’s onboarding as a critical milestone, confirming PEXA’s UK platform viability and likely triggering broader adoption among banks and conveyancers.

Jarden estimates the UK market is approximately 2.4 times the size of Australia’s and sees PEXA well placed to secure material share.

While there is some renewed risk around Australian interoperability regulation, the analyst believes the UK upside more than compensates.

Downgrade

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Management at TPG Telecom announced $1.61 per share capital return from the $4.7bn EG&W asset sale, exceeding Jarden’s expectations and supporting balance sheet repair and free float expansion.

The broker expects minority shareholders will participate in a $688m reinvestment plan.

Jarden assumes full uptake, implying 186m new shares issued, though delays in reinvestment details and a softer operational update have prompted a downgrade to Neutral from Overweight.

Postpaid subscriber net adds in 1H25 were weak, according to the analysts, (up 15k versus consensus 70k). Average revenue per user (ARPU) growth is expected to be 2H-weighted as back book repricing flows through.

The broker’s target price is reduced to $5.30 from $5.50.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $0.92 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APX)) as Buy (1) –

The highlight of Appen’s 2Q25 update is identified as the growing China business, with revenue up 77% y/y but offsetting this was the non-China revenue, which Canaccord Genuity estimates was down -32% y/y on a weak US market.

Margin in 2Q was down, revenue for 2Q and 1H fell short of the broker’s and the consensus forecasts. On the positive side, 1H EBITDA marginally beat the broker’s forecast, indicating costs are under control.

The company guided to broadly unchanged 2H revenue outlook, leading the broker to downgrade FY25 EBITDA estimate only modestly.

Buy. Target cut to $1.60 from $2.35 as the broker put a discount on the multiple used in valuation modeling.

This report was published on July 30, 2025.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.68
If APX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.74.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 593.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSC    CAPSTONE COPPER CORP.

Copper – Overnight Price: $9.37 

Moelis rates ((CSC)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis assesses Capstone Copper’s 2Q25 report as a strong one as it showed sequential improvement and also beat its forecasts.

Production was largely in line with forecast, but cost was lower, and revenue and EBITDA were higher. The company reiterated FY25 production guidance of 220-255kt copper at cost of US$2.20-2.50/lb.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.50.

This report was published on August 1, 2025.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $9.37 Difference: $3.13
If CSC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.03, suggesting upside of 33.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 39.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6. 

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 176.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $17.40 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Credit Corp’s FY25 result eased investor concerns around US operational performance and near-term earnings growth.

The bigger positive was a clearer path forward, with higher secured pipeline for the US purchased debt ledger segment, improved productivity and scope to grow new/emerging lending products.

Minor changes to forecasts but target price rises to $21.60 from $20.60 on a rollover of valuation methodology.

Buy maintained.

This report was published on August 5, 2025.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $17.40 Difference: $4.2
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 170.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.24.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EGL    ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.28 

Wilsons rates ((EGL)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage of Environmental Group with an Overweight rating and 41 cents target price.

The company’s aim is to help engineer a sustainable future with five divisions: gas turbine enhancement, boilers, gas and dust control, recycling plants, and PFAS removal.

The analyst highlights an improvement in earnings quality since CEO Jason Dixon and CCO Paul Gaskett joined in 2021. Wilsons forecasts earnings (EBITDA) growth of 30% for FY26 and 10% for FY27, with multiple growth drivers to achieve the outcome.

Between FY21 and FY24, the company’s EPS grew by 107% and the earnings before interest and tax margin rose to 7.7% from 4%, with a diversified revenue base across engineering and fabrication (50%) and services and parts (50%).

Commentary highlights service revenues boost recurring income.

This report was published on August 1, 2025.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.13
If EGL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.74.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.89 

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

In a review of private label products vs brands for supermarkets, Jarden notes penetration in Australia lags the global trend, highlighting an opportunity to grow own brands.

There is also a substantial gap in profitability vs offshore, with margins lower on average. The broker reckons retailers should focus on higher margin products like health, home, fresh and bakery to boost margins.

Woolworths Group ((WOW) remains the broker’s preference, followed by Metcash.

Overweight. Target price $4.10.

This report was published on July 30, 2025.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.21
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. 

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $17.01 

Petra Capital rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital flags key events which will potentially impact on healthcare stocks, noting Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ first patient in the Phase 3 Phelan-McDermid syndrome (PMS) trial with NN-2591 is expected “imminently”.

This would be the first Phase 3 start and could commence the timeline to potential results from the trial in 1H2027.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a $31.45 target price.

This report was published on August 6, 2025.

Target price is $31.45 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $14.44
If NEU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.13, suggesting upside of 36.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 142.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of -95.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 315.0. 

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 210.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 485.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.8. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMI    SANTANA MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.63 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMI)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Santana Minerals outlined the development pathway for its Bendigo-Ophir gold project in New Zealand at the recent Diggers and Dealers Mining forum.

The company highlighted the project delivers revenue of $6.2bn at $4,950/oz gold price, EBITDA of $4.0bn, post-tax free cash flow of $2.5bn, with payback in less than 1.7 years.

Buy. Target price $1.60.

This report was published on August 4, 2025.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.97
If SMI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.11 

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons assesses Strike Energy’s 4Q25 production and revenue to be broadly in line with its forecasts, but nevertheless falling short by -5% and -4%, respectively. Compared with consensus, production missed by -2% and revenue by -1%.

The company is raising around $88m via equity placement with Carnarvon Energy ((CVN)), with first tranche of $52m completed and the balance $34-36m subject to shareholder approval. Share purchase plan of upto $15m, including oversubscription, is also planned.

The company expects the funding will allow for progress in its priority projects, includin the South Erregulla Peaking gas power station and the West Erregulla upstream development.

Overweight. Target cut to 22c from 29c.

This report was published on July 31, 2025.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.11
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.23, suggesting upside of 109.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. 

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. 

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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