Weekly Reports | 10:05 AM
This story features NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Several brokers have upgraded U308 long-term prices forecasts (again) as supply challenges build into 2026.
-Stifel, Shaw, and Macquarie raise long-term U308 pricing projections amid tightening outlook
-NexGen’s Rook 1 gains prominence; Silex milestone reduces technology risk
-TradeTech reports firmer spot prices as sentiment improves late in the week
By Danielle Ecuyer
The bullish U308 forecasts just keep coming
Uranium is never far from making a headline as the AI megatrend powers on, with nuclear energy part of the power mix to feed the voracious appetite from record data centres and hyperscalers investment development spend.
Several brokers have been crunching the numbers and putting out updated U308 price forecasts as well as reviewing their outlook for U308 stocks.
US-based Stifel increased its long-term uranium price forecast to US$120/lb, up 14% from the previous forecast at US$105/lb, from 2029.
The 2026 U308 price forecast is raised to US$90/lb from US$87.50/lb, with 2027 at US$100/lb and 2028 unchanged at US$110/lb.
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) remains Stifel’s top stock pick as the Rook 1 uranium project is emerging as one of the most strategically important undeveloped assets in the sector.
Once fully permitted, Rook 1 is expected to stand out as a technically advanced, high-margin operation positioned in a premier mining jurisdiction. It is also likely to attract takeover interest from global uranium producers and companies across the nuclear fuel supply chain.
Canada’s nuclear regulator, the CNSC, has set public hearings for the project in two stages, slated for November 2025 and February 2026. NexGen began the environmental review process back in 2019, winning provincial approval in late 2023. The company has also secured formal support from four Indigenous groups in the project area, strengthening its social licence to operate.
After completing a CA$950m global equity raise, NexGen plans to channel funds into advancing engineering, covering pre-production costs, and general corporate purposes.
Over the coming year, priorities include detailed design and procurement, advancing offtake agreements, finalising construction financing, and expanding exploration to define additional high-grade mineralisation at Rook 1.
Shaw and Partners, with tongue in cheek, highlights Australia produces around one-third of the global supply of nuclear fuel, and the world is on the cusp of a nuclear energy renaissance, even though most people wouldn’t know it in Australia.
Momentum is rising in Western Australia and Queensland to remove the ban on U308 mining in those states.
Shaw outlines the positive macro backdrop for nuclear energy, as has been written about over the past 12 months in FNArena’s weekly updates, and points to the questions investors continue to ask:
“If the uranium supply outlook is so tight, why do utility buyers appear so calm?” and “Why are utilities not panicking about where their uranium supply is going to come from?”
The broker responds supply concerns won’t be triggered until post-2026 when utilities become increasingly uncovered by current term contracts for their U308 fuel needs.
More recently, the focus has been on maintaining sufficient supply of conversion and enrichment services, which is reflected in respective higher pricing.
New supply coming on stream this decade is limited to slight increases from Kazatomprom and Cameco, alongside brownfield restarts from Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)).
Shaw believes the market could switch to panic buyers over the next 2-3 years from the current orderly buying status, particularly with new supply from Kazatomprom not being made available to Western utilities.
The market is considered “structurally undersupplied”, and China is most probably going to try and lock up as much excess supply as possible while geopolitics continues to impact and disrupt trade.
A multi-year peak U308 price is assumed of US$150/lb starting late 2026 before moving back to a sustainable price of US$90/lb by 2032 (2025 real price).
Improving outlook for Silex and Paladin
In company news, Shaw and Partners notes Silex Systems ((SLX)) achieved Technology Readiness Level 6 (TRL-6) for its laser uranium enrichment technology, marking a major de-risking milestone.
The technology is licensed to Global Laser Enrichment (GLE), a 51%/49% JV between Silex and Cameco, which can now advance the Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility (PLEF) to detailed design.
TRL-6 triggers Cameco’s 30-month option to increase its GLE stake to 75% at a market-based valuation. PLEF’s first stage targets re-enriching 150Mlbs of uranium tails at an estimated cost of less than US$30/lb.
Shaw lifts its Silex target price to $11.20 from $6.50 to reflect reduced technology risk and potential upside from up to US$900m in possible US government funding.
Buy, High-Risk rating maintained.
Macquarie is also in the mix this week, highlighting its recent long-term U308 price upgrade to US$95/lb from US$85/lb.
Paladin continues to be rated Outperform alongside a $11.10 target price, due to a stabilisation of management at the top, post-succession, and a successful capital raising.
The miner upsized the retail portion of its share purchase plan to $100m from $20m due to robust retail demand.
Shares priced around $8.40 imply a U308 price of US$65/lb in perpetuity across both Canada and Namibia, and US$70/lb in Australian assets, with Michelin excluded.
For Macquarie, this represents a “standout” opportunity post-new management, the equity capital raisings, and the plant stability exhibited at the recent quarterly update for Langer Heinrich. The provincial approval for Patterson Lake South is also deemed to be near term.
Morgan Stanley, with an Overweight rating and $10.40 target on Paladin, flagged an end to production issues for Langer Heinrich in FY26 with good growth potential from Patterson Lake South, including production starting in 2031, which can transform the uranium producer into a sizeable player.
In other company news, Macquarie has an Outperform rating on Deep Yellow ((DYL)) with a $1.95 target price and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) with a 27c target price, up 3.8%, due to leverage to higher forecast U308 prices, which has lifted the analyst’s EPS estimates by 76% for FY26 and 17% in FY27.
Macquarie remains Neutral rated on Boss Energy as considerable uncertainty remains around Honeymoon resource and wellfield strategy outcomes.
Accounting for higher capex and probable dilution from another small equity raising to maintain production of 1.6-1.7mlbs, the analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -10% for FY26 and -9% for FY27.
Target price slips -14% to $1.80.
A lackluster spot market takes a positive shine by week end
In the U308 spot market, trade was mixed according to industry consultants TradeTech, starting out last week with a bearish tilt only to turn more upbeat at the end of the week.
Tuesday had five transactions, with four calling for delivery of 50klbs of U308 and one for 100klbs. The first transaction was at US$77/lb and the second at US$76.50, followed by two transactions at US$76/lb and the last on the day at US$76.25/lb.
On Friday, two announcements improved sentiment in the spot market.
Santee Cooper, the owner of the VC Summer Nuclear Power Plant in South Carolina, entered into a letter of intent with Brookfield Asset Management for a six-week initial project feasibility period for the partially built AP1000 nuclear units. Both parties will select a project manager and consider construction providers to resume construction of the two nuclear units.
President Trump also announced a reduction in power grid connection reviews for AI data centres to 60 days to improve infrastructure development for AI growth in the US.
Overall, the week saw seven transactions, TradeTech reports, with the spot price up US$1.55/lb to US$78.90/lb by Friday.
The TradeTech Mid-Term price indicator finished at US$87/lb, and the Long-Term price indicator at US$84/lb.
The consultants also pointed to new demand in the term market, with several US and non-US utilities starting discussions with suppliers.
One utility completed its evaluation of offers and selected a preferred supplier for delivery of over 2mlbs of U308 over 2030-2040.
Latest updates from short positions
As at October 21, short interests had ratcheted up their position in Boss by 4.77% points to 22.13%, placing it definitively as the most shortest stock on the ASX.
Paladin is in sixth position at 12.04% from 12.10% a week earlier, and Silex in fifteenth position at 8.83% from 8.38%.
For more weekly updates on uranium from FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/21/uranium-week-jpmorgans-us1-5trn-plan/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/14/uranium-week-price-frenzy-fades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/07/uranium-week-september-spot-price-rips/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/16/uranium-week-buyers-strike-pre-major-deals/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 24/10/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 24/10/2025 | 0.2100 |  2.56% |
$0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 24/10/2025 | 0.0300 |  – 4.00% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 133.3% |
|
| AKN | 24/10/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 24/10/2025 | 0.1000 | – 4.17% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 24/10/2025 | 0.5400 | 0.00% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 24/10/2025 | 3.2500 | – 9.88% |
$4.07 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 44.6% |
|
| BOE | 24/10/2025 | 1.6600 | – 2.63% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 8.9 | $2.371 | 42.9% |
| BSN | 24/10/2025 | 0.0600 | 3.45% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 24/10/2025 | 0.0240 | -20.00% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 24/10/2025 | 0.1200 | – 4.00% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | – 8.3% |
|
| CXU | 24/10/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 24/10/2025 | 0.1100 | – 8.33% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 24/10/2025 | 1.6300 | -10.88% |
$2.49 | $0.75 | -330.0 | $1.930 | 18.4% |
| EL8 | 24/10/2025 | 0.3800 | – 7.50% |
$0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 24/10/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 24/10/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 24/10/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% |
$0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 24/10/2025 | 0.1500 | -14.29% |
$0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 24/10/2025 | 0.5100 | – 8.93% |
$0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 24/10/2025 | 0.0700 | -12.50% |
$0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 24/10/2025 | 0.7400 | – 6.33% |
$0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 24/10/2025 | 0.1900 | – 7.50% |
$0.27 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 55.3% |
|
| MEU | 24/10/2025 | 0.0700 | – 5.71% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 24/10/2025 | 13.3800 | – 1.75% |
$14.63 | $6.44 | $12.925 | – 3.4% |
|
| ORP | 24/10/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 24/10/2025 | 8.4900 | – 4.00% |
$10.53 | $3.93 | 71.5 | $9.843 | 15.9% |
| PEN | 24/10/2025 | 0.5900 | -10.94% |
$1.92 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 125.4% |
|
| SLX | 24/10/2025 | 9.7800 | 20.68% |
$9.83 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 14.5% |
|
| TOE | 24/10/2025 | 0.4400 | -11.00% |
$0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 24/10/2025 | 0.0200 | – 4.76% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED