Next Week At A Glance

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

By Greg Peel

Greece will again be the word next week as the stricken country slides inevitably towards bail-out. Portugal will be another word as selling momentum in that country's bonds increases. In theory Athens is now in discussion with its would-be EU and IMF rescuers for a full two weeks so it may be that information flow will be staggered. In the meantime, Greek bond yields blow out further and further each day.

The G20 finance ministers will be in sober discussion in Washington over the weekend, but nothing but mortherhood statements ever comes out of these things.

Attention will also be focused on US bonds next week in another round of auctions. The appetite for US bonds has increased this last week as an offset to European sovereign issues, with the ten-year yield having pulled back from the 4% mark to a more staid 3.78%. Next week sees another US$178bn of Treasury bills and bonds up for grabs. Across the week we'll see US$11bn of five-year inflation-adjusted bonds issued, US$44bn of two-year notes, US$42bn of five-years and US$32bn of sevens.

The last Treasury auction saw a very surprising (and suspicious) leap in demand for threes and tens despite a previously clear trend of diminishing demand, particularly from foreigners. What will next week bring?

What it will bring in the US is the Dallas Fed activity index, the Case-Shiller house price index, the Conference Board consumer confidence measure, the Richmond Fed activity index and the Chicago Fed national activity index. It will also bring a “rate decision” from the Fed.

Observers were quick to spot that in his recent testimony to Congress, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did not repeat the “exceptionally low rates for an extended period” mantra. Instead, he suggested rates will stay low until data and circumstances otherwise dictate. He had previously explained in his March statement that “extended” did not have a date on it.

If exceptional/extended is totally missing from next week's statement, the US dollar might well be in for another jump, albeit European woes are already pushing it higher.

Friday will be a big day in the US next week as the Chicago PMI and Michigan Uni consumer confidence numbers will be released, but more importantly the first estimate of (or guess, or outright stab at) first quarter GDP will be made. And of course the quarterly reporting season rolls on.

In Australia all markets are closed on Monday for Anzac Day while data flowing thereafter will include the PPI and CPI, Conference Board leading indicators and private sector credit.

Japan has a big day on Friday with its rate decision and release of industrial production, CPI and unemployment data.

On the local stock front there'll be a few more quarterly production reports from the resource sector while ANZ bank ((ANZ)) will report its interim profit on Thursday.

Please note that next week's "Monday Report" will be published on Tuesday with a wrap of the Friday and Monday sessions on Wall Street.

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, corporate event dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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