Technicals | Apr 28 2010
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
It hasn't gone unnoticed that on a day when risk assets received a broad “thanks, but no thanks” approach from investors around the world, gold managed to buck the trend and post a sizeable gain on the day.
No wonder, technical analysts at Barclays Capital use the term “impressive” this morning. This becomes even more so when one takes into account that all other precious metals recorded losses overnight, all except for gold.
From a pure technical perspective, argue the analysts, gold's close through the US$1162/1165/oz key resistance zone signals the larger bulltrend has now resumed. The analysts add daily momentum oscillators have turned higher, and while doing this they managed to unwind overbought conditions – another positive for gold.
Near-term resistance is seen at US$1187/oz which equates to 78.6% of the Dec/Feb decline, but the analysts argue the strong close posted by gold overnight points to an eventual push to the December bull market highs at US$1227/oz and beyond.
They have a (reverse) head-and-shoulders target of US$1250/oz on a medium term basis. Longer term, the team remains of the view that US$1300/oz will be reached, and after that US$1500/oz further down the track.
The analysts also highlight that, in contrast to the bullish picture for gold, platinum has posted a Bearish Engulfing Candle on daily charts, closing just above the 21-day average which is at present at US$1706/oz.
The analysts suggest the candle formation, coupled with the bearish divergences in daily momentum point to further weakness with a break of the 21-day opening up US$1654/77 as the next target for platinum.
The latter price level equates to platinum's Feb/Mar trendline support, the analysts explain. They expect this level will prove solid support and will allow the metal to find a base. It also marks the Jan/Mar highs, adding to the analysts' confidence platinum prices should find solid support at the price level.
