FYI | Apr 12 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Recent study by Independent Project Analysis shows average big exploration and production project is 22% late and 25% over budget #resources
– Rio Tinto down 1.2% $57.33 in early trade following a pit wall slide at one of its copper mines in Utah, tipped to have material impact ^JS
– BA-ML: if Q1 US earnings season is strong then a “melt-up” in stocks and risk assets becomes a risk (Abeconomics providing further support)
– If 2013 GDP comes in below Fed forecast of 2.55% it will be the 7th straight year of sub 2.5% GDP growth.
– Supply is catching up with demand. That's all one needs to know to understand why the golden era for commodities is behind us
– UBS predicts multi-years of USD strength. Historically this coincides with underperformance for Basic Materials, Utilities, and Real Estate
– UBS forecasts #Brent to rebound to average $110/bbl in 2Q and 3Q (WTI to average $91) before weakening again towards end of year #energy
– Shanghai spot #ironore price +30c to $140.90 d/mt, highest level seen since March 12, 2013 #ausbiz #miningboom
– Remarkable: Q1 inventory build in #nickel this year only beaten by Q1 of 2009, the depth of post-Lehman global manufacturing contraction
– Observes Citi: Oz unemployment now highest in 3.5 years. Full-time unemployment has jumped from 5.5% to 5.8%. Broad based, worse for males
– UBS: it appears to us the ‘risk on / risk off’ trading environment will persist, supporting our cautious outlook for #equities
– UBS: structural backdrop of moderate growth, low interest rates should continue to favour higher quality franchises with above market growth
– Goldman Sachs lowers #gold price forecasts to US$1250/oz average by 2015. Notes impact quite negative on Oz stocks, including #copper stocks
– Macquarie Conviction Ideas: Sell #CAB, Buy #CSL, #BPT, #OSH, #BSL, #SPI, #CHC, #DLX, #AIR, #PNA, #NAB and #GPT. Added #DOW today (buy)
– Macquarie research on mid-cycle earnings and valuations: stocks that appear overvalued include #IAG, #AGO, #OZL, #CTX, & #TTS
– Making it 6 sessions without a decline, Shanghai spot #ironore price +$1.50, or +1.08%, to $140.60 d/mt #miningboom #ausbiz #fmg #ago
– GS's Coppo doesn't think the rally in resources will last. Not now. "Miners have been the worst performing sector YTD (and for a few years)"
– We registered 12 recommendation changes today. 8 upgrades = all resources stocks. 4 downgrades = 2x Billabong and 2x Alumina Ltd – message?
– BTIG observes: over the last month or so, vast majority of major eqiuity markets have turned lower except for #US and #Japan #equities
– My personal take on #ironore equities: the difference between short term oversold and longer term price decline http://goo.gl/UZnoj
– Deutsche Bank says now's the time to be brave. Upgrades #WSA, #OZL, #NCM to a BUY and #FMG, #AGO, #ILU to a HOLD #commodities #equities
– Deutsche Bank retains US$110/bbl forecast for #crudeoil Brent in years ahead. Sees risks balanced, even with rising supply from US shale
– CS bearish on #alumina price outlook as Indonesians unlikely to turn off tap on China bauxite imports Jan 2014. Downgrades #AWC to sell
– Base #metals higher overnight. #Gold up by US$14.20 or 0.9% to US$1,586.70/oz on Comex. Spot #ironore rose US$1.50 or 1.1% to US$139.10/t
– February national unemployment hit 10.9% – most Australians ever out of work says Roy Morgan poll http://bit.ly/10HboRu
– Macquarie: 2013 would appear to represent an inflection point with #commodities outlook for next 5 years perhaps more dictated by supply
– Macquarie's upgrade of #BHP and #RIO, both to Outperform, is based on relative valuations and expected uptick #commodity prices in Q2
– Haven't seen this in a while: Macquarie upgrades #BHP to Outperform from Neutral, price target at $39. #Commodities outlook unexciting
– JP Morgan sees "significant value" in #BHP and #RIO. Sees "material re-rating" when sentiment turns.Prefers RIO. No cap mngmt at least 2 yrs
– Citi: Proprietary Model points to sharp drop in #mining capex in 2014. Pricing outlook for mining equipment has deteriorated "notably"
– Citi: Lack of response to accommodative RBA is new development against previous easing cycles. Market to partially price in policy stimulus
– NAB: AUD/USD close above 1.0520 will be bullish technical signal indicating risk of substantial move higher; to previous record at 1.108?
– Chartist's view: inside day with slight bullish divergence + double bottom on Stochastics: one of strongest bullish signals #equities on Tue
– Concludes NAB: Overall, prices for most #commodities will generally ease in the current demand environment as production begins to ramp up
– Post #China CPI, ANZ says PBoC policy to remain cautious with ongoing focus on strong capital inflows and rising property prices
– Second stockbroker in two days: Credit Suisse reports sell-down junior iron ore miners shows exaggeration to the downside #commodities
– Newcrest (#NCM) is refinding support from stockbrokers post sell-off. Latest to upgrade rating to Outperform is JP Morgan, today
– JP Morgan maintains global GDP growth to accelerate from Q4; sees higher prices for base and precious metals in years ahead #commodities
– JP Morgan cut global demand expectations base metals, but maintains the trend in prices will be upward over the next two years #commodities
– Standard Bank retains bearish view #silver with 2012-low of US$26.16/lb likely to be tested in 2013. Weak underlying supply/demand dynamics
– "Global Warming"? Last month was the coldest March for the UK since 1962 and matches 1947 as the second coldest March of the last 100 years
– Ahead of US Qly earnings season: acccording to Thompson Reuters, profits seen rising just 1.6% from a year ago, down from 4.3% in January
– Big Call of the day: Citi calls it a "false dawn" and downgrades Macquarie (#MQG) to Sell while cutting estimates, target to $34 #equities
– Danske Bank: Outlook for global economy is a continued soft path for the next couple of months. Recovery is intact but fragile and patchy
– Disappointing development in Chinese leading indicators http://ow.ly/1UFNy2
– Scarsdale chartist: concerned short term outlook major equity indexes; internals continue deteriorate, charts showing more technical breaks
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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