ASX 200 Stronger In Short Term

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By Michael Gable 

While last week was not pretty for the market, especially on Thursday, it managed to bounce on Friday and that was crucial to see it trade higher this week. As you will see from ASX 200 comment below, the market will bounce a little but it is still at risk here. The sell-off on Thursday has potentially washed out a lot of the sellers in resources though and with BHP Billiton ((BHP)) still yielding more than what you can get in the bank, we should find them hold support.

Iron Ore has held up well the last couple of weeks and copper should rally from here as well. Gold on the other hand still looks vulnerable here. We should see it dead cat bounce here in the short term, but I would then use that as an opportunity to exit positions as the next level down is towards US$1200 an ounce.

In terms of new trading opportunities, Brambles ((BXB)), Toll Holdings ((TOL)), and Computershare ((CPU)) are looking interesting on the long side. Qantas ((QAN)) is also a possible short at these levels.

ASX 200

Volume yesterday was the lowest since 14 January. With ANZAC day this Friday, we should expect the low volumes to continue and therefore intraday volatility to remain higher. After rallying for 5 days from the 4880 level, the market couldn’t go to a new low in the subsequent 5 days. As a result, in the short term I am expecting the market to head back to 5050. That would give us a neat 3 wave rally from the 4880 level to complete a larger “b wave” of a 3 wave decline that started in March. As a result, the lower levels of 4750 and possibly 4570 cannot be ruled out unless we see the market go to a new high for the year.
 

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Visit Michael Gable's website at  www.michaelgable.com.au/.

After leaving Macquarie Bank's Securities Group in 2008 after many years of service, Michael has gained a highly regarded reputation in the financial services industry. As a Private Client Adviser with Novus Capital, Michael has become a popular live commentator and analyst for Sky News Business Channel’s “Your Money, Your Call” program. He is also the author of the weekly stock market report “The Dynamic Investor”.

Michael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management.

Michael deals in all ASX listed securities and specialises in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.

Michael is RG146 Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:

• Bachelor of Engineering, Hons. (University of Sydney) 
• Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney) 
• Diploma of Mortgage Lending (Finsia) 
• Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (Finsia) 
• Completion of ASX Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 & 2

Disclaimer

Michael Gable is an Authorised Representative (Rep. No. 376892) of Novus Capital Limited AFSL 238168 ACN 006 711 995. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited, their associates and respective Directors and staff each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in securities and/or earn brokerage, fees, interest, or other benefits from products and services mentioned in this website. This website may contain unsolicited general information, without regard to any investor's individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you must consider the appropriateness of the information in this website or the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Financial Services Guide (FSG), having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are summarised and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited believes that any information or advice (including any securities recommendation) contained in this website is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited are not obliged to update you if the information or its advice changes. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited and each of their respective officers, agents and employees exclude to the full extent permitted by law, all liability of any kind, in negligence, contract, under fiduciary duties or otherwise, for any loss or damage, whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise, whether foreseeable or not, to the extent arising from or in connection with this website.

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