FYI | Jan 17 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. This time, as this is the first update since FNArena re-emerged from its holiday break, I have included all Tweets since the start of the new calendar year. Enjoy.
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– Citi turns bullish on #mining stocks, first time in 3 years. Prefers BHP, RIO and Glencore-Xstrata. Large diversifieds to outperform sector
– Overnight: #commodities struggling for direction. #Nickel up and outperforming. Crude #oil down. #China #ironore down US$1.30 to US$128.30/t
– Citi strategists remain positive on US #equities in 2014, but short term looking overbought and overall volatility to pick up from here
– Morgan Stanley sees total return from Oz #equities of 11% in 2014 driven by earnings (6.5%) and yield (4.5%) on back of FY15 earnings growth
– Macquarie: base analysis continues to see #copper market in surplus 2014-15, while the longer-dated story (2016) remains robust #commodities
– Dave Rosenberg: main thematic for 2014 is that prior headwinds are subsiding, a lesser negative becomes a positive #investing
– #Commodities again diverging overnight. Base #metals positive, but crude #oil down, as #gold. #China spot #ironore down 1.1% to US$129.50/t
– CS turns positive on Alumina Ltd (#AWC) shares on expectation of FY15 7.3% fully franked dividend potential – upgrade to Outperform
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: Lend Lease (#LLC) shares to rise over next 60 days carried by robust upcoming interim report
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: Stockland (#SGP) shares expected to rise over next 60 days as short term valuation boosted by weakness
– BA-ML reports international funds managers are reducing Underweight positions for Australia, even though views remain negative #investing
– Citi concludes #ANZ Bank looking to "merge" with Standard Chartered is possible, but unlikely due to hurdles such as franking credits
– Macquarie advises investors should only consider high quality #gold miners with experienced mngt, strong balance sheets: BDR, OGC, NST, PIR
– Asks Dave Rosenberg: can 2014 be "opposite 2013" year with accelerating US economy and increasingly challenged equity markets? #investing
– #Equities persisting with new year weakness while #gold is gradually climbing. Coincidence? Don't think so #investing
– BA-ML lowers #gold price forecasts but warms towards Newcrest. CIMB speculates about potential 2014 sector revival and also likes Newcrest
– Another trading tip from Morgan Stanley: Goodman Group (#GMG) shares expected to rise over next 60 days
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: Federation Centres' (#FDC) share price is expected to rise in next 60 days. H1 release potential catalyst
– In case anyone wondered: #China spot #ironore fell by yet another US30c on Friday to US$130.70/tonne #commodities #Investing
– Observed: one increasingly popular prediction among FX analysts is that NZD and AUD will move to parity, and beyond, in 2014 #Investing
– 2014 forecast by IHS: global growth will gradually accelerate, but #commodities prices will essentially "go nowhere", USD to strengthen
– CBA says #ironore prices likely to range trade between US$125-135/tonne in the "intermediate term" #commodities #investing
– CS lines up preferences amongst major Aussie banks: ANZ (Outperform), NAB (Outperform), CBA (Underperform), WBC (Underperform) #investing
– MS concludes (Oz #healthcare ): PRY, RMD, SHL only stocks trading below valuations. RHC highest earnings certainty; COH likely to disappoint
– UBS global update confirms: Aussie banks most expensively priced, but also #dividend yield remains highest across the globe #investing
– Overnight: #Commodities prices continue to weaken. #Gold stable. #Tin biggest loser among base metals. #Ironore down US50c to US$131.00/t
– Danske Bank: Fed will cut monthly bond purchases by USD10bn at each meeting in 2014, hence terminate bond purchase program in December 2014
– On the back of lower #gold price forecasts for 2014, CS has double whammy downgraded Newcrest (#NCM) to Underperform, target falls to $8.20
– Overnight: #commodities prices lower across the board, including crude #oil, #copper and #gold. #Ironore down US$2.30 to US$131.50/tonne
– Credit Suisse sees supply catching up with crude #oil in 2014, with Brent price projected to fall below US$100/bbl in Q3 #energy #investing
– Credit Suisse believes prospects most #commodities prices likely to improve in H2 2014. weakness for #ironore, #copper, #gold and crude #oil
– Credit Suisse says #commodities demand unlikely strong enough to push many prices materially higher in 2014, downside seems limited
– Morgan Stanley upgrades Newcrest (#NCM) to Overweight as share price seen as too low and upside should announce itself, at some point
– Saxo Bank sees another tough year ahead for #commodities, but takes a more optimistic view on #gold, in particular H2 2014 #investing
– Saxo Bank predicts 10% overall rise for global #equities in 2014. Says biggest risk for investors is not being long enough on risky assets
– Goldman Sachs: bull markets don't die of old age, US #equities expensive but single digit returns ahead for 1-5 year horizons #investing
– CS labels outlook for Oz #equities "uninspiring"; projects total investment return (incl dividends) of 9% for the year ahead #investing
– JP Morgan's commodity desk has reduced projected coking coal prices to US$151/tonne and US$165/t for CY2014 and CY2015 #commodities
– Macquarie has initiated coverage on Dick Smith with Outperform rating and $2.60 price target, suggesting 12-mth return of nearly 34% ahead
– Citi reduced crude oil price forecasts: CY14/CY15 Brent oil cut by 9% and 10% respectively to US$98/bbl and US$93/bbl #energy #commodities
– JP Morgan suggested today #Graincorp board is poised to shock the market with a lower than assumed (consensus) profit guidance for FY14
– JPMorgan Shows The US Is The Most Expensive Developed Market In The World http://tinyurl.com/qy6u32g
– CantorFitzgerald cautious on #gold, sees US$1200/oz as LT support level. Predicts a come-back for #uranium in 2014 with "significant upside"
– Economists React: China’s Manufacturing Sector Runs Into Trouble http://on.wsj.com/1cnHCnb
– China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 51 percent in December, down from 51.4 percent for November, according to official data.
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