The Short Report – 17 Dec 2020

This story features PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

Week ending December 10, 2020

Last week saw the ASX200 end an unbeaten seven-day rally, after the Dow hit 30,000 on news of another vaccine (AstraZeneca), Janet Yellen’s nomination as Treasury Secretary, and an apparent, sort of, not quite concession from Trump. Border re-openings domestically added to sentiment.

Profit-taking kicked in on the last day.

The market has now begun to wind down ahead of Christmas. The ASX200 is still doing its thing but activity is slowing, evident both in diminishing broker research and another week of not much change in short positions.

All movement on the table below represents bracket creep, except for the one move of one percentage or more. The last battery-related miner has left the building.

Lithium miner Galaxy Resources ((GXY)) fell off the 5%-plus shorted table last week from 6.4%. Miners of lithium and graphite in particular have suffered through a boom/bust cycle of supply building way ahead of actual demand, just as rare earths had done previously and before that, uranium. For quite some time, Galaxy, along with peers Orocobre ((ORE)) and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) and graphite miner Syrah Resources ((SYR)) jealously guarded the top spots in the 10% shorted club, often up to and over 20% shorted.

Cobalt miner Metals X ((MLX)) also hung around at the lower end for quite some time.

But with all talk of growing EV demand, and commitments across the globe to zero emission targets, the battery-related miners have been on the move again more recently, and that has led to a gradual reduction in short positions.

Other moves worthy of note last week were those of seafood farmer Tassal Group ((TGR)), up to 9.8% from 9.0%, and biotech Avita Therapeutics ((AVH)), up to 8.6% from 7.8%.

While Tassal peer Huon Aquaculture ((HUO)) is having all the problems, shorters are no doubt anticipating Beijing will soon add salmon and prawns to its trade war list alongside lobsters, given we are not backing down to the bully.

Avita had been tipped to exit the ASX200 and so it came to pass in the S&P/ASX rebalance announcement last Friday.

No Movers & Shakers this week.

This is the last Short Report for 2020. The Short Report will now pull on the shorts as it takes a short break, returning next year.

So long.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

WEB   15.0
WSA   10.8

No changes

9.0-9.9

TGR

In: TGR           Out: MYR
                                               
8.0-8.9%

FLT, IVC, AVH, ING, A2M, MSB, MTS

In: AVH                      Out: TGR, MTS

7.0-7.9%

MTS, Z1P

In: MTS, Z1P              Out: AVH

6.0-6.9%

FNP, BOQ, CUV, WHC

In: WHC                     Out: Z1P, GXY, EOS                       

5.0-5.9%

COE, ALK, SSM, EOS, EML, NEA, BEN, AMA, SXL  

In: EOS, BEN, SXL               Out: WHC, TPW, GWA

Movers & Shakers

See above.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code	Last Week	Week Before	Code	Last Week	Week Before
ALL	2.6	2.6	MQG	0.4	0.4
ANZ	1.1	1.2	NAB	1.4	1.3
BHP	3.9	4.0	NCM	0.2	0.2
BXB	0.2	0.3	RIO	0.8	0.8
CBA	0.7	0.6	TCL	0.4	0.3
COL	0.3	0.4	TLS	0.3	0.3
CSL	0.2	0.2	WBC	1.0	0.9
FMG	0.5	0.6	WES	0.4	0.4
GMG	0.1	0.1	WOW	0.3	0.2
IAG	1.3	1.3	WPL	1.7	1.6

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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