SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED (SYR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

29/01/2026

1

Outperform

$0.50

117.39%

Macquarie downgrades Syrah Resources' target by -29% to 50c due to a more subdued near-term earnings outlook post the 4Q2025 result, which saw production up 2% and sales down -3%, with pricing missing consensus forecasts by -26% due to product mix changes.

Graphite production came in at 34.4kt, meeting consensus expectations, and recovery rose to 76% from 68% in the prior quarter.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -48% for 2025 and -171% for 2026.

No change to the Outperform rating, as Syrah remains one of the world's largest natural graphite operations.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -14.49 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -2.44 cents.

02/02/2026

2

Overweight

$0.34

47.83%

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating on Syrah Resources with an unchanged target of $0.34, arguing recent operational strength at Balama reinforces the long-term strategic value despite near-term headwinds.

December quarter saw Balama achieve graphite production of 34kt and sales of 29kt, ahead of expectations, although realised prices remained below C1 costs as Syrah continues selling at a loss to support the ex-China supply chain build-out.

Commercial momentum at Vidalia has stalled, with Jarden deferring first sales to June quarter as customers await final US AD/CVD determinations, now delayed following the government shutdown.

While frustrating, the broker views AD/CVD outcomes as structurally durable and expects commercial activity to accelerate once finalised, given Vidalia’s cost competitiveness versus Chinese supply.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus -13.73 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus -6.41 cents.