Next Week At A Glance

This story features GRAINCORP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GNC

 By Greg Peel

Given the state of the market this week and particularly today, it seems almost pointless to talk about economic data releases next week. Between European debt, Chinese slowing, the RSPT and US regulatory reforms we have rapidly shifted from a market looking eagerly to post-GFC blue sky to a market in GFC2 panic.

The question is, are we reaching the capitulation sell-off stage – the peak of fear – which suggests the correction could be nearing and end? Or is this not actually a correction of the previous bull market, rather the previous bull run was only a correction of the bear market which began in late 2007?

General opinion is swinging to the former conclusion, but when fear is in control it a brave investor who decides it's time to step in front of the freight train. Such strategies are best left to risk-hungry hedge funds, while smaller investors should be quite content with returning to the market only once it appears the correction has indeed played out.

Nevertheless, there is a raft of important US data out next week including existing and new home sales, the Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indices, durable goods orders, two measures of consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed index, the Chicago PMI, and personal consumption and expenditure data. Most important perhaps will be the first revision of US first quarter GDP due on Thursday.

The US Treasury will also auction a total of US$113bn of two, five and seven-year notes between Tuesday and Thursday. Expectation is for solid demand.

The UK will release its first estimate of first quarter GDP on Tuesday.

In Australia, there are few releases next week but a couple of important ones nevertheless. Monthly vehicle sales are out on Monday, then fist quarter construction work done on Wednesday which will be be interesting given the amount of infrastructure spending going on at present. Most important, however, will be the first quarter private capital expenditure numbers due on Thursday.

On the local corporate front, Campbell Bros ((CPB)) will release its full-year result and Graincorp ((GNC)) its interim, while Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Austar ((AUN)) and Westfield ((WBC)) will hold AGMs and Wesfarmers ((WES)) will hold a Strategy Day.

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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