Next Week At A Glance

This story features WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW

By Greg Peel

European stock markets have been having a tough time of it this week. Outside of a pointless credit rating downgrade for Greece, one might suggest that with Greek headlines now quietly evaporating Europeans are simply forced to face the reality of widespread austerity measures and recession assumptions. On the other side of the Atlantic however, the opposite is true.

America, it seems, is just champing at the bit to leave European woes behind and get on with what's looking more and more like a reasonable, if not spectacular, turnaround in economic fortunes. Interest rates will be held at low levels for years, the Fed will add even more stimulus if necessary, and even AIG – the real devil of the GFC – is back in the black. Dow 13,000? Should be a walk in the park.

Just don't mention the oil price (US gasoline prices again hitting the dreaded US$4/gal level) or the fact Europe could suddenly fall apart again at any moment. And don't mention the fact each of 2010, 2011 and 2012 saw or have seen solid initial rallies only to tip over once more ahead of the “Sell in May” period. Confidence remains more of a goal than a driver.

There are some important economic data out in the US next week to perhaps determine, all things being equal, whether or not Dow 13,000 can be conquered definitively. Pending home sales, the Case-Shiller house price index, the Richmond Fed activity index, durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, chain store sales and personal income and spending data will all provide clues. On Wednesday the Fed will release its Beige Book anecdotal survey of economic activity in the twelve regions and another revision will be made to the December quarter GDP.

On Thursday it's the first of the month, which means manufacturing PMIs from Australia, China, the eurozone, UK and US. A snapshot of the global economy.

In Australia, the February earnings season will be in its death throes but not before going out on a bang up to Wednesday. We are still to hear from the likes of Boral ((BLD)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), QBE ((QBE)) and WorleyParsons ((WOR)). And then just when you thought it was all over, Woolies ((WOW)) reports on Thursday.

Economically, Australia will see monthly private sector credit, retail sales, building approval and manufacturing data, and the Rismark house price index. And the big one next week – the one the RBA will be keeping a very close eye on – is December quarter private sector capital expenditure and capex intentions.

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms