The Overnight Report: Holiday Mode

This story features HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HVN

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 7 points while the S&P lost 0.1% to 1802 and the Nasdaq added 0.2%.

Bridge Street posted a solid jump from the open yesterday but gradually lost interest as the session wore on. The nuclear deal with Iran is seen as a positive across the globe, but not exactly a panacea. It doesn’t help that both the Israelis and Saudis are edgy, and the Saudis have more than Sunni-Shi’ite differences to fear.

The deal struck on the weekend did not lift limits on Iranian oil exports. If all goes well, those limits will be lifted in six months. The Saudis are already having to come to terms with their biggest customer since time immemorial (and hence ally) gradually becoming energy self-sufficient, and in six months Iran may well be set to flood the market in an attempt to catch up on lost revenues.

Six months is a-ways off, nevertheless, which probably explains why the response in oil markets was subdued last night. Brent, which would be most impacted by new Middle East supply, fell US16c to US$110.99/bbl and West Texas fell US65c to US$94.19/bbl.

The other consideration this week is the US Thanksgiving holiday, which effectively suggests US markets are as good as shut from Wednesday lunch through to Monday. There are plenty of data to absorb in the next couple of sessions, but no one wants to take too much of a position home and judging by Bridge Street’s languid trade yesterday, the locals don’t see much reason to get excited either.

There was only the one US economic data release of significance last night.

The inventory of US homes for sale is falling and mortgage rates have risen since tapering talk began, which is impacting on pending sales data. Pending sales fell 0.6% in October when economists expected a 1.1% rise. The government shutdown took some of the blame but the sales index is down for a fifth straight month and back to levels of December last year.

This data point cooled an initial jump from the bell on Wall Street which largely reflected a positive reaction to the Iranian nuclear deal. But after faltering, the indices began rising again as if by rote. At its peak the Dow was up 45 and at that point the Nasdaq crossed the 4000 mark for the first time in 13 years. One look was enough, and back down we all came. The Dow and S&P both remain above their respective “big figure” levels but there is always work needed to be done around these psychological markers and this week is not really the week to expect a big push through.

The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 80.89 with talk of traders quietly exiting the “safe havens” of the yen and Swiss franc ahead of possible Fed tapering sooner rather than later. The Aussie took a breather and is steady at US$0.9162.

Gold initially wobbled on the Iran nuclear deal as one might expect – reduction in geopolitical risk – but ultimately shot up towards the end of New York trade for a US$7.50 rise to US$1250.30/oz. Does the deal represent a reduction in geopolitical risk? Perhaps the Israelis would not agree.

Guess what? Base metals did nothing. Spot iron ore is also unchanged at US$136.50/t.

The SPI Overnight fell 6 points.

Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Woolworths ((WOW)) will be among quite a number of companies holding AGMs today.
 

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