Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

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            [1] => ((TTS))
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            [2] => ANZ
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This story features TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TAH
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday March 28 to Friday April 1, 2016
Total Upgrades: 2
Total Downgrades: 1
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 43.54%; Hold 43.99%; Sell 12.47%

Finally. Stockbroking analysts moved into low activity mode post February reporting season and amidst early Easter and school holidays this year, but we had to wait until last week to see this reflected in the stats and data we collect daily from the eight stockbrokers FNArena monitors.

The discrepancy as to why the numbers registered continued to remain above average relates to miners and energy companies. Now that analysts seemingly are less worried about share price levels and/or puny forecasts, the numbers do reflect underlying activity.

For the week ending Friday, 1 April 2016, FNArena registered the Grand Total of  two recommendation upgrades for individual ASX-listed stocks and one sole downgrade. ANZ Bank proved the sole recipient of a downgrade (to Hold) post additional provisions for bad debts and it is difficult to not see the symbolism in that observation against the current market background.

Changes recorded for valuations and price targets do not merit special attention. The same applies to earnings estimates. Arrium seems to be enjoying a significant boost, but that's merely mathematical trickery from small losses turning into expected gains. Lowered price forecasts for nickel put a dent in forecasts for Western Areas which also announced a capital raising. 4% adjustments in estimates for St Barbara and Speedcast International are not the kind of event that would trouble investors much.

Maybe a worry for Australian investors is the fact that an ASX200 index below 5000 isn't triggering more upgrades?

Upgrade

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/2

The shares have under performed ASX200 by 12% since the first half results, UBS observes. The stock is now trading at its lowest premium since November 2012 and, with market expectations having re-based, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell.

Competition continues to build up, with the new focus on digital. While Tabcorp's digital share fell marginally in the first half UBS expects an improvement going forward. Target price is raised to $4.15 from $3.75.

TATTS GROUP LIMITED ((TTS)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/1

UBS likes the long-dated exclusive lottery licences held by Tatts and believes new products and distribution will ensure that the long-term average sales growth of 4.4% is achieved over the next 3-5 years.

The under investment in the retail offering means a turnaround in UBET is likely to prove challenging and the broker believes there is also downside risk to forecasts of 3.0% if wagering misses FY17 forecasts by 10%.

Still, the broker believes downside risks to the share price is limited, given the strategic value of the assets the company holds and momentum in lotteries. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.55.

Downgrade

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 4/3/1

The update on bad debt guidance, which was delivered just five weeks ago, proves disappointing for Deutsche Bank. The bank indicated the deterioration reflected a small number of resource exposures rather than a general worsening of the credit environment.

Deutsche Bank suspects, given the bank's overweight position in resources and institutions, plus the credit outlook in Asia being uncertain, that the prospect of closing the valuation discount to its peers is low for the short term.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $26.00 from $28.20.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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