Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 25, 2022

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   CGC (4)   CRN   CSL (3)   EDV (2)   MTS (2)   NWS   PEB   SGR   TLX  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.65

Bell Potter rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Alkane Resources reported 1Q23 trading results, which came in with higher gold production of 19.5koz compared to Bell Potter's forecast of 14.4koz. Costs ($1191/oz), gold sales (18.3koz) and unsold bullion stocks (4.3koz) were also higher than expected.

The company reaffirmed guidance of 55koz to 60koz and costs of $1650/oz to $1900/oz.

Earnings forecasts are increased by Bell Potter to account for the changes to forecast commodity prices and foreign exchanges rate assumptions, with FY23 raised 5% and FY24 raised 19%

The price target is lowered -23% to $1.00 from $1.30 on the back of a higher discount rate and lower valuations for "copper development companies"

 Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.35
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.27.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.25

Bell Potter rates ((CGC)) as Buy (1) –

"Citrus sours CY22" for Costa Group according to Bell Potter.

The company's trading update reaffirmed the quality issues for citrus that had been flagged in the July update, with the packing rates coming in -20% below the budget, notes the broker.

Other divisions continue to trade well and Costa Group adjusts EBITDA earnings guidance to $220m, which is below consensus of $230m to $260m. 

Bell Potter lowers EBITDA earnings forecasts by -16% for FY22 and -3% in FY23.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.75 from $3.55 with the change to earnings estimates and a higher discount rate.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.5
If CGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 101.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((CGC)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes poor weather impacted on Costa Group's Citrus division, resulting in lower volumes in premium price citrus exports.

Other divisions, notably Berries, Tomatoes and Mushrooms performed well and Avocados are improving.

Goldman Sachs reduces EPS estimates by -56% for FY22 and -16% for FY23, with the FY22 EBITDA estimate down -18.8% in line with Costa Group's guidance.

The target price is lowered by -37.5% to $2.25 from $3.60.

Accordingly the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, with the lack of visibility on the earnings making it hard for the analyst to justify the premium rating the company has historically been ascribed.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0
If CGC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 101.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CGC)) as Overweight (2) –

Costa Group serves up another "disappointing" announcement according to Jarden, with the downgrade in FY22 guidance post the material impact of the Citrus division on earnings in the latest trading update.

In a global context, the broker views the company as one of the leaders in the produce sector, however adverse weather, covid, labour problems and freight issues have all increased the uncertainty around earnings forecasts.

The recent loss of the CEO is considered another negative for the stock, until a successor is named.

Jarden EBITDA forecast is lowered -25% for FY23 and the analyst points to more conservative margin estimates given the ongoing execution risks.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target price is lowered to $2.20 from $3.15.

This report was published on October 19, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 101.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CGC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons views the Costa Group trading update as "disappointing" and highlights the poor weather has impacted on the guidance to a greater degree than expected, with volumes in Citrus retained, but the lower fruit quality fruit has curbed export volumes.

The other divisions continue to trade well notes the broker and recent investments are expected to maintain earnings growth across Mushrooms, Berries and Tomatoes.

Wilsons lowers EBITDA forecast by -13% for FY22 and is anticipating a recovery in Citrus in FY23, with FY23 EBITDA forecast down -2%.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target is lowered to $2.93 from $3.17.

This report was published on October 19, 2022.

Target price is $2.93 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.68
If CGC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 101.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.08

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Coronado Global Resources' September quarterly trading update revealed a 30% rise in coal output for the 2H22, compared to the previous six months, alongside lower unit costs, according to Bell Potter.

The broker reduces hard coking coal prices by -6% for FY22 as prices came in some -17% lower than expected in 3Q22. The exchange rate forecast is adjusted to reflect the weaker AUD versus the USD.

Bell Potter's earnings forecasts are changed by -13% for FY22 and 12% for FY23, with the high dividend forecast reflecting the expectations Coronado will return surplus cash to shareholders.

The Buy rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $2.20 from $2.05.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.12
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 30.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 70.20 cents and EPS of 98.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 33.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 24.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.02 cents and EPS of 48.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 27.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.3, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 25.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $273.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs' key takeaways from the Vifor investor presentation were the twofold goals of achieving a 10% compound growth in sales and improving returns for shareholders over the medium term.

The broker was encouraged by CSL reaffirming the earnings guidance and removing some of the market's uncertainty over funding costs and other issues such as the dialysis segment.

Goldman Sachs is positive about the recovery in CSL's plasma business, but remains cautious about the mid to long term earnings accretion from the Vifor acquisition and compares the company to the risk profile of 10-years ago.

A Neutral rating and $291 target are retained.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $291.00 Current Price is $273.05 Difference: $17.95
If CSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 356.64 cents and EPS of 752.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 868.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 402.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 454.29 cents and EPS of 958.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1076.9, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden is upbeat about the opportunities for CSL's IV iron franchise post the Vifor investor day update, noting the potential leverage of Vifor brands Injectafer and Ferinject which represent 36% of Vifor's revenue.

Jarden's earnings forecasts are adjusted by -12.9% for FY23 and -1.9% for FY24, accounting for the -$280m one-off write off in costs, inventory revaluations, and transaction costs.

For context, the broker's FY23 earnings forecast of $2.825m is some 2.7% above the midpoint of CSL's guidance of $2,700m to $2,800m.

Overweight rating retained. Target price slips to $312.83 from $333.97 post the Vifor consolidation and valuation changes.

This report was published on October 19, 2022.

Target price is $312.83 Current Price is $273.05 Difference: $39.78
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 685.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 868.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 402.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 941.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1076.9, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

CSL provided an update on the Vifor acquisition which Wilsons views positively, with the company detailing the strategic rational for the purchase.

Of note the company will enhance the development of assets in the Chronic Kidney Disease space to include nephrology and dialysis.

Wilsons adjusted earnings forecasts by -7% for FY23 and -6% for FY24 including a lowering of the Vifor contribution by -19% for FY23 and -8% for FY24.

The broker maintains earnings forecasts for Behring and Seqirus and raises the working capital estimates.

Overweight. The target price is lowered -7% to $318.33 from $342.55.

This report was published on October 19, 2022.

Target price is $318.33 Current Price is $273.05 Difference: $45.28
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.19 cents and EPS of 757.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 868.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 402.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.94 cents and EPS of 876.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1076.9, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV    ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs noted Endeavour Group reported stronger than expected sales results for Q1 with hotels rising 8.9%, versus 5.5% consensus, offsetting the weaker than forecast retail sales of -1.2%.

On balance, the broker remains positive on Endeavour Group with no changes to the earnings forecasts.

The analyst highlights the robust inventory position for the retail division over the Christmas period as well as the acquisition growth pathway for hotels, with 10 new acquisitions forecast in 2023.

The Buy rating and target price of $8.10 are retained.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $0.7
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting downside of -1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((EDV)) as Underweight (4) –

Endeavour Group's trading results came in around 1% ahead of forecasts according to Jarden, with a 6% beat from Hotels. Retail was in line at -6.2% on the previous year.

The company is positive about the outlook for Hotels with strong Christmas bookings and all aspects of the Hotels business performing well.

Jarden notes some easing in retail market share compared to the 2021 lockdown, although premium and craft products are outperforming and shopper traffic has improved.

The broker's FY23 earnings forecasts are adjusted for better sales and higher margins by 2-3% and the price target is raised to $6.60 from $6.50.

A Sell rating is retained as Jarden see a better risk adjusted investment proposition from Woolworths Group ((WOW) and Metcash ((MTS)).

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting downside of -1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs returned from the Metcash Strategy Day noting management remains focussed on growth and gaining market share across all divisions – Food/Liquor and Hardware.

The broker highlights expected capital expenditure (capex) costs have elevated to some -$250m, compared to -$100 pre FY20.

However, concerns remain around expanding (MFuture and Project Horizon) at a time when Foods and Hardware are reflecting a softening in demand, which places an emphasis on the lower margin. higher volume, wholesale business of Liquor and Food.

Accordingly, Neutral rating retained and the target price is adjusted to $4.10 from $4.50 due to the higher than anticipated capex.

This report was published on October 19, 2022.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.15
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of -3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden considers Metcash provided a positive trading update for the first 23 weeks of FY23, which was slightly ahead of expectations; noting 7.7%  sales growth, comprised of Hardware up 17.1% and in line, while Liquor was better than forecast and Food softer.

The Investor day highlighted the rise in capital expenditure to generate growth with a number three target in the Food sector, via ongoing store upgrades (50% currently completed) alongside data and digital improvements to the business.

Jarden adjusts earnings forecasts by -2% for FY23, but remains constructive on the medium term with compound EPS growth of 6.1% forecast for the next 3 years.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target adjusted to $4.20 from $4.50 from changes to the risk free rate used to value the company.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.25
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of -3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $27.06

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes the announcement of Mr Murdoch forming an independent committee to consider the possible "combination" with Fox Corporation.

The analyst provides no views on the possible outcome, but does highlight that News Corp has traded at a significant discount to its asset value since the 2013 Fox spin-off.

Goldman Sachs sees likely investor interest in what will transpire with the 62% stake News Corp holds in REA Group ((REA)).

The Buy rating and target $31 are retained.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: $3.94
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 25.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 110.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 128.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.1, implying annual growth of 20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEB    PACIFIC EDGE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.41

Bell Potter rates ((PEB)) as Speculative Hold (3) –

Pacific Edge Q2 update showed an 11% increase in Total Laboratory Throughput compared to the prior quarter, and 25% for the 1H23, a 22% rise on the 2H22, notes Bell Potter.

The growth was generated from the high US testing volumes and the more developed NZ market, with the results in line with expectations.

Bell Potter retains the existing earnings forecasts, but points to ongoing concerns regarding the "CMS disbursement" and the possible resulting impact on future revenues.

Hold rating is retained and the target is lowered to 50c from 55c, after adjusting for changes in the valuation.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.09
If PEB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.08.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.59.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs considers the suspension of Star Entertainment's license for the Sydney Casino. The broker points to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the financial implications of the -$100m fine.

Star Entertainment's debt profile adjusts to 2.8x for net debt/EBITDA ratio, which is above the 2.5x level required before dividend payments can be reinstated and relative to the average gearing of 1.8x over the last 10 years.

Goldman Sachs is also looking for clarity on the implications for the group from the Queensland inquiry. A Neutral rating is retained with a $2.90 target price.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0
If SGR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 17.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 67.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $7.03

Bell Potter rates ((TLX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Bell Potter notes Health Canada has approved Telix Pharmaceuticals' Illuccix for the imaging of Prostrate Cancer, with the analyst viewing the development as a sentiment boost, post the recent European regulator decision.

The September quarter cash flow and trading update will offer a potentially further positive for the company and Bell Potter is forecasting revenues of US$33-US$35m.

Earnings estimates are tweaked for the change in the USD appreciation. The Speculative Buy rating and $8.50 target are retained.

This report was published on October 18, 2022.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $1.47
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 167.38.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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