Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 07, 2022

This story features AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARX   BUB   CCX (2)   CKF (2)   CRN   FPH (2)   GTK   HLA   MGH   MYX (2)   TPW   TSI   WDS   WHC  

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.10

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery has re-affirmed its FY23 outlook, which Wilsons suggests will see the business remain cashflow breakeven in FY23 and become cashflow positive thereafter.

First half revenue was a 4% beat versus the broker’s forecasts, driven by sales in Myriad, Ovitex (Tela) and other income (which includes license fees from Tela).

The analyst attributes a 400bps increase in gross margin to 81% (constant currency basis) to Myriad’s growing contribution to the sales mix and improvements in manufacturing.

Wilsons increases its target to $1.73 from $1.50 on increased earnings forecasts and a higher multiple, and retains its Overweight rating.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.63
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BUB    BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $0.30

Bell Potter rates ((BUB)) as Speculative Hold (3) –

Bell Potter adopts a more cautious forecast for near-term revenue growth after a recent shortfall in Bubs Australia's 1Q2 infant milk formula revenues versus expectation. Negative year-on-year growth is also implied by 2Q revenue guidance.

The broker lowers its target to 35c from 45c after reducing earnings forecasts and lowering the company earnings multiple. The Speculative Hold rating is unchanged.

The analyst assumes a modest year-on-year uplift in FY23 gross margin, as management is targeting growth via higher marketing and corporate costs.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.05
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 300.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.74

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCX)) as Buy (1) –

City Chic Collective has updated on its first twenty weeks of the fiscal year, with group sales to date tracking -2% below the previous comparable period. While a slight miss to Canaccord Genuity's expected 2% growth, the result was a sizeable miss to consensus expectations for 20% growth.

The result was led by an online revenue decline of -19%, with Australian online revenue down -11% and US online revenue down -12%. Physical stores performed better, with Australian storefronts up 56% on the previous comparable period. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.30.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.755
If CCX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 64.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of -36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CCX)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Market Weight (5) –

Weak demand in the Americas and difficulties in Europe have seen City Chic Collective report a -2% global revenue decline year-to-date, but Wilsons believes offshore operations remain key to future growth. 

The broker notes the decline followed an unseasonal inventory increase, and feels the result highlights limitations of an online-only business model. Following the update, Wilsons lowers its earnings forecasts -0.9% and -36.1% through to FY24. 

The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Market Weight and the target price decreases to $0.61 from $1.00.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: minus $0.135 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 64.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of -36.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 124.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.86

Jarden rates ((CKF)) as Neutral (3) –

Despite Collins Foods delivering a roughly in line first half result, Jarden was left disappointed by commentary focused on the company's outlook.

The broker notes cuts to margin expectations suggest more rapid deceleration, particularly in Europe, while the pausing of new Taco Bell stores suggests uncertainty around the brand's future.

Jarden continues to find Collins Foods well placed in the quick-service restaurant segment, but given headwinds has a preference for competitor Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP)) which it finds to have a more tangible medium-term growth outlook.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $8.50 from $10.55.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $0.64
If CKF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1) –

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Collins Food missed Wilsons forecast by -1% due to weaker same store sales (SSS) growth for KFC Europe. Margins contracted more than expected from additional supply cost pressure.

Management lowered FY23 margin guidance, implying to the analyst a deeper and longer impact from cost inflation. The store rollout for Taco Bell has been paused due to weaker sales growth. 

The broker lowers its EPS forecasts by -16-23% and the target falls to $11.49 from $12.10 to reflect the near-term earnings impacts of cost inflation in KFC Australia and KFC Europe, and revised modelling on Taco Bell.

Wilsons likes the resilience of revenue growth, strong brand positioning for KFC and early signs of success with the Netherlands corporate franchise agreement, and retains its Overweight rating.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $11.49 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $3.63
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.00

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter expects the current strong met coal price environment will provide earnings and dividend support for Coronado Global Resources.

The broker materially raises its coal price forecasts and, as a result, increases its 2022-24 EPS forecasts by 10%, 11% and 176%, respectively. The target price rise to $2.50 from $2.10.

The analyst envisages surplus funds will be returned to shareholders and forecasts a strong dividend yield outlook. Buy.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.5
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 84.10 cents and EPS of 107.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 42.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 33.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.62 cents and EPS of 54.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 32.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.6, implying annual growth of -14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 24.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $22.50

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Overweight (2) –

Despite Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's revenue declining -23% in the first half the result was 3% ahead of company guidance and Jarden's forecasts. The broker found company commentary encouraging, suggesting gross margin pressures have bottomed out in the first half.

The broker also liked that Fisher & Paykel suggested some alleviation of customer overstocking occurred during the half, with Hospital consumables sales increasing month-on-month since May as a result. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to NZ$24.00 from NZ$23.00.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Current Price is $22.50. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $21.50, suggesting downside of -3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.05 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.51 cents and EPS of 45.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 35.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((FPH)) as Market Weight (3) –

After in-line 1H results by Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Wilsons highlights a normalisation of OptiFlow demand (for both hardware and consumables). 

Revenue exceeded the broker’s forecast by 4%, and re-based to a pre-pandemic norm, while consumable products for new applications, such as Optiflow, were a 7% beat. Hospital de-stocking effects continue to retard growth rates, notes the analyst.

Management guided to a 2H revenue level greater than for the 1H and a 200bps 2H gross margin expansion to 62%.

Wilsons increases its target price to $20.00 from $18.63 and maintains its Market-weight rating.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: minus $2.5 (current price is over target).
If FPH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.50, suggesting downside of -3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.01 cents and EPS of 15.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 148.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.06 cents and EPS of 14.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 157.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 35.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.30

Jarden rates ((GTK)) as Neutral (3) –

Gentrack Group's full year result was unsurprisingly in line with its recently updated guidance, and Jarden finds the company to have demonstrated strong momentum in recent periods.

The company is guiding to revenue of NZ$130m over the coming year, anticipating growth will be impacted by declining contributions from insolvent utility customers, which totaled NZ$26m in FY22 but is expected to decline to NZ$13m in FY24 and to nil in FY25. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to NZ$2.25 from NZ$1.55.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Current Price is $2.30. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 251.37.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.92.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLA    HEALTHIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.10

Jarden rates ((HLA)) as Buy (1) –

Healthia reported earnings of $13.4m for the first five months of the fiscal year, with Jarden highlighting some recovery In November following a weaker October. The update implies annualised earnings of $32.3m, tracking behind full year guidance for $40.0m.

Jarden lowers its revenue estimates -4% each for FY23 and FY24, given the lower than anticipated first half run rate, driving an -8% and -6% decline in earnings for the same years.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.22 from $2.46.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $1.12
If HLA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.21.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.56

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Maas Group has announced its acquisition of integrated construction materials business Dandy. Wilsons highlights the acquisition allows Maas Group to establish a significant presence in a new market with a robust growth outlook. 

The broker anticipates Dandy will generate initial earnings of $12m per annum, but sees significant scope for growth for the medium term, underpinned by continuing strong construction and infrastructure spend. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.01 from $4.81.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $1.45
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.94.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has found Mayne Pharma's update on its year to date weaker than expected, with revenue for its Nexstellis treatment of US$4.2m a sizeable miss to the broker's anticipated first half sales for US$9.9m. 

The company remains focused on improving profitability and cash flow, anticipating a return to positive earnings in FY24. The broker anticipates detail on how the company will manage impact from oversupplied distributors and timing around a return to normalised inventory levels.  

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.37 from $0.51.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.17
If MYX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((MYX)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (5) –

Mayne Pharma's year-to-date dermatology trading has shaken Wilsons' confidence in segment stability and its capacity to support operations while the Nextstellis product finds its footing. 

The broker attributed significant earnings holes and a first negative revenue result to the mismanagement of supply and demand shifts within the segment. The broker does remain positive on the outlook for Nextstellis, and its ability to capture meaningful share over time.

The rating is double-downgraded to Underweight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $0.17 from $0.56.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MYX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of minus 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 32.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.99.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.26.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $4.71

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster's trading update was largely in line with Goldman Sachs' expectations. Having now fully cycled lockdown impacts the company saw a return to slight year-on-year revenue growth in November. 

The company anticipates momentum will continue to improve, expecting a return to double digit revenue growth over FY23. Goldman Sachs is anticipating a return to solid revenue growth, and forecasts growth of 21% and 18% in FY24 and FY25 respectively. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.50 from $7.60.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $2.79
If TPW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 74.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TSI    TOP SHELF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.30

Shaw and Partners rates ((TSI)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners has described Top Shelf International's ahead-of-expectations update as bullish, with the company reporting a record six months and appearing well set up for its seasonally strongest period. 

The broker highlights NED and Grainshaker are now ranked seventh and tenth within their respective categories, and both continue to take market share. With products currently only stocked across some independent channels and Coles Liquor Group, Shaw and Partners considers further national ranging as an upcoming catalyst. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.80 from $1.70.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.5
If TSI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.81.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.11.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $36.75

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden has found Woodside Energy's decision to release FY23 guidance ahead of its annual investor briefing tactical, forcing the market to focus on other aspects of the briefing. Following guidance release, Jarden lowers its earnings per share forecasts -1.9% -7.9% and -2.8% through to 2024.

Production guidance for the coming year was a miss to Jarden and consensus, but the broker sees room for upside. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target price decreases to $33.00 from $34.00.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $36.75 Difference: minus $3.75 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.54, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 362.46 cents and EPS of 499.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 565.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 277.94 cents and EPS of 402.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 443.8, implying annual growth of -21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 314.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $9.81

Bell Potter rates ((WHC)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Bell Potter materially raises its coal price forecasts and, as a result, increases its 2023-25 EPS forecasts for Whitehaven Coal by 25%, 96% and 270%, respectively. 

Due to these forecast changes, the broker raises its target price to $11.00 from $10.29 and upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold.

Cash generation and an enormous share buy-back will more than offset production slippages and cost risks implied by the company’s recent guidance downgrade, explains the analyst.

As prices and margins remain extremely high, the broker sees support for the current capital programs, the ongoing share buy-back and strong dividends.

This report was published on November 30, 2022.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.81 Difference: $1.19
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 390.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 423.3, implying annual growth of 114.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 333.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 288.8, implying annual growth of -31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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