The Overnight Report: The Orange Rebellion

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This story features ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Good morning, Wall Street was closed overnight and Greg Peel is absent today. Instead we quote from Federated Hermes' Lewis Grant, Senior Portfolio Manager for Global Equities:

"We approach December with investors in a more positive place than has been the case for much of 2023. Our proprietary risk aversion indicator has seen a sharp inflection to a more risk-on sentiment, primarily reflecting the reduced likelihood of further rate rises.  Central bankers continue to push the higher for longer message but markets will not listen: the only way is down.

"Equity investors are ready for the festive season and lower rate expectations will be a key catalyst to keep the “Santa rally” going through to Christmas. Weak macro data will further fuel equity indices. We can deal with the bills – and the potential hangover – in the New Year.
 
"Perhaps more pressing will be the volatility in the oil market. Disagreement between OPEC+ countries has resulted in a delay to the policy meeting, which will now coincide with the commencement of COP28. While lower energy prices will be widely welcomed, uncertainty is never appreciated. At a time when the world comes together to discuss climate change, oil may take centre stage for the wrong reasons.
 
"It’s been quite the week for AI. The turmoil at OpenAI seemed to resolve itself as rapidly as it began, although it may take time to unravel how governance and power structures at the non-profit have shifted and what this may mean for the organisation, its key partners and AI more generally.

"Investors in the space have generally reacted positively, with capitalism rather than altruism deemed the winner. Nvidia’s results gave pause however, with stellar growth surpassing expectations without truly surprising anyone – the share price slipped marginally. Valuing these companies, and determining the market share of the various players – even defining what the market is that they are sharing – continues to prove difficult."

Meanwhile, it seems Israel and Hamas will have a short-term "truce", starting later today and Chinese authorities are taking the whatever-it-takes approach by providing unprecedented all-in unsecured loans for their cabal of troubled builders.

Geert Wilders has won the election in the Netherlands. If you're not familiar, Google it!

Shares in Dutch companies were under pressure as Wilders is of the intent to repeat Brexit for Maastricht-Amsterdam-Groningen and surroundings.

The postponed OPEC-Plus meeting will be held online. AustralianSuper remains hellbent on kyboshing the proposed privatisation of Origin Energy ((ORG)). And European bonds are in focus now the German government plans to circumvent a court ruling which effectively translates in the government suspending the debt limit and take on more debt (more bonds).

S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index surprised on the upside, but remained in contractionary territory for the sixth consecutive month.

Locally, we probably are looking towards another cautious, low volume trading day. Plenty of AGMs are on the calendar to provide impetus to move share prices in either direction. See the FNArena calendar for more details.

SPI futures are suggesting a rather lukewarm opening awaits at 10am.

Sans dividends the local index hasn't made any progress since January 1st and December is approaching, fast!

US earnings season calendar: https://www.ii.co.uk/investing-with-ii/international-investing/us-earnings-season

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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