Weekly Reports | Feb 06 2024
The spot uranium price has surged again on news Kazakhstan’s major producer will miss its production targets.
-Kazatomprom production guidance cut
-Spot and term uranium prices continue to rise
-Uncertainty surrounds the US, Niger and the Red Sea
By Greg Peel
The spot uranium price surged last week on confirmation from Kazatomprom it would likely miss its early targets for production in 2024 and 2025 due to challenges with sulphuric acid deliveries and well field development.
Guidance for 2024 has been cut by -13%, with 2025 uncertain.
The cut increases Morgan Stanley’s forecast 2024 global production deficit estimate by 50% to -9600t U3O8. Morgan Stanley’s bull case forecast is for a spot uranium average price of US$119/lb over 2024.
While this news was not unexpected, industry consultant TradeTech notes, the revised guidance caused sellers to immediately raise their offer prices. Buyers were not deterred by the higher prices and have continued to step in to absorb material.
TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator rose US$7.00 to US$107.00/lb, putting it within US$31 of the historical peak at US$136/138/lb marked in mid-2007.