Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 12, 2024

This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   AMC   ASX   BWP   CIP   COH   CSR   DRR   DXI   ELD   FBU (2)   GNG   LOV   MTS   NCK (2)   PGH   PME   RED   RGN (2)  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.29

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage of copper producer AIC Mines with a Buy rating and 52c target price.

The broker holds a positive view on the copper price, particularly given China's lack of meaningful copper reserves, but says it's hard graft finding a domestic small-cap exposure on the ASX. Enter AIC Mines.

The company has acquired the Eloise mine in Queensland and added the nearby Jericho deposit after purchasing Demetallica ((DRM)) early last year.

Funding and a final investment decision have been secured for the latter project and commencement should derisk the operation, says Moelis.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.225
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.37.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $14.01

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Neutral (3) –

Amcor reported 1H24 earnings and the outlook continues to remain mixed with potential for downside risks in 2H24 says Jarden.

Management noted an improvement in January volumes, however, the broker notes this is off soft volumes in December. The quality of the 1H24 earnings also remains in question as the company reported a lower effective tax rate.

On balance, the volume outlook for FY24 has declined but management retains guidance, due to improving inventory levels and declining working capital costs.

Jarden lifts the target price to $14.40 from $14.30; a Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.01 Difference: $0.39
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.41, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 74.42 cents and EPS of 102.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 77.60 cents and EPS of 107.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.0, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $67.20

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

ASX provided a trading update which revealed a fourth month of double-digit futures growth in January plus a pick up in average daily volumes of 22% compared to the previous period, highlights Jarden.

However, daily market turnover fell -9% in January on the previous year and velocity declined to 61%, which is the weakest monthly result in over 10-years.

Jarden also highlights a -58% fall in capital raisings on the previous year, due to sluggish IPO activity.

Target price of $61.05 and Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 6, 2024.

Target price is $61.05 Current Price is $67.20 Difference: minus $6.15 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $61.03, suggesting downside of -9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 214.20 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.5, implying annual growth of 50.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 212.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 224.90 cents and EPS of 264.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.5, implying annual growth of 2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP    BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.53

Moelis rates ((BWP)) as Hold (3) –

BWP Trust's December-half result met Moelis's forecasts, posting an EPU and DPU of 9.02c. Management retained guidance.

Market rents strengthened, rising 4.2% on average, well above FY23's 1.8% growth rate. About 50% of leases are linked to CPI.

The broker appreciates the trust's under-leveraged balance sheet, gearing closing the half at 17.1%, with hedging cover sitting a 51.5%.

BWP has entered an agreement to buy Newmark REIT ((NPR)) for an implied value of $1.40 (0.4 BWP units for each NPR unit). If this proceeds, BWP's gearing should rise to 22.7%, says Moelis.

Hold rating and $3.64 target price retained.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.11
If BWP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 213.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.35

Moelis rates ((CIP)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Industrial REIT's December-half funds from operation (8.5c per unit) and dividend per unit (8c) met Moelis's forecasts. Management upgraded FY24 funds from operations guidance to 17.2c from 17c. Dividend guidance was unchanged at 16c.

Strong leasing spreads supported 6% growth in net operating income, a trend expected to continue in the near term, says the broker. Net tangible assets fell -1.7% to $3.89.

Moelis says the trust's developments are delivering strong returns and observes the pipeline has risen to $1bn. Management has also identified a longer term pipeline which is likely to require $450m to $500m in capex for a completion value of $1bn.

The broker estimates this will translate to $10m to $150m in capital each year from 2025, most of which will probably be weighted in FY26 to FY27.

Gearing was fairly steady at 33.7%. Hedging was 88%, and is expected to remain high.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $3.71 from $3.52.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.36
If CIP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $322.73

Wilsons rates ((COH)) as Overweight (1) –

An 8% full year net profit guidance increase from Cochlear is a "pleasing outcome" according to Wilsons, which believes the company is "doing better tactically than it is letting on".

Cochlear reported first half revenue of $1,113m, reflecting 25% year-on-year growth, and net profit of $192m, or 33% year-on-year growth. So far, there is little detail from Cochlear on the result, other than pointing to market share retention.

Full details of the first half result are expected later in February, and Wilsons defers any forecast changes until then.

The Overweight rating and target price of $318.46 are retained.

This report was published on February 8, 2024.

Target price is $318.46 Current Price is $322.73 Difference: minus $4.27 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $242.40, suggesting downside of -24.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 406.90 cents and EPS of 577.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.0, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 377.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 456.50 cents and EPS of 651.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 645.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR    CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $6.76

Jarden rates ((CSR)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden assesses the settlement of Stage 3A and Stage 3B of Horsley Park for CSR, alongside the outlook for residential housing.

The broker adjusts forecasts higher for the quicker settlement on Stage 3B which is expected to add $10m EBIT in 1H24 and the combined Stage 3A, 3B and 3C creates an estimated FY24 EBIT of $112m, against $104m guidance.

The construction materials forecast is raised by 5.5% for FY25 and Jarden embraces the cost control measures.

Aluminum remains an "albatross around its neck" and the analyst would be more positive on the stock were this division divested.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target price lifted to $6.60 from $6

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting downside of -9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 54.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.60 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of -14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $5.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRR)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity reports an in-line December quarter from Deterra Royalties, with the company reporting quarterly revenue of $63m.

The broker anticipates first half earnings of $112m, net profits of $77m and a per share dividend of 15 cents. It expects royalty revenue to remain broadly flat over the next two quarters, as higher volumes offset slightly lower prices.

Canaccord Genuity also makes upward revisions to its iron ore price deck, now forecasting US$119 per tonne in FY24 and US$103 per tonne in FY25.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.30 from $5.00.

This report was published on January 31, 2024.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.1
If DRR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of -9.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXI    DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.88

Moelis rates ((DXI)) as Buy (1) –

Dexus Industria REIT's December-half funds from operation per unit and dividend per unit rose to 8.6c and 8.2c respectively and appear to have outpaced Moelis's forecasts. Management reiterated FY24 guidance.

Office was the standout thanks to a strong performance from Brisbane Technology park where the vacancy rate fell to 4.3% from 14.3% at June 30, generating an income yield of 7.5%.

Management commentary suggests the Industrial portfolio is still strongly under-rented says Moelis, leaving room for growth.

Net tangible assets fell -3% to $3.32 from $3.44 during the half as the like-for-like cap rate expanded. Gearing fell to 28.1% from 31.2% and should move to 26.2% following the January sales of two industrial assets. Gearing is down to 18.1%.

Buy rating retained, the company trading at a -13% discount to net tangible assets. Target price rises to $3.21 from $3.11.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.33
If DXI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 21275.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $8.78

Moelis rates ((ELD)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis assesses more favourable weather conditions since October 2023. Above average rainfall for the east coast of Australia, Northern Territory and South Australia has boosted non-irrigated crops and livestock prices.

Also: imported agricultural chemical prices have remained steady for the last six months, providing a further boost to Elders.

Earnings per share forecasts are lifted by 7%, 6% and 4% for FY24 through to FY26, respectively, after the broker accounts for better livestock volumes, prices and cropping outcomes.

A Hold rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $9.44 from $7.92.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $9.44 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $0.66
If ELD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting downside of -9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 57.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of -6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.60 cents and EPS of 61.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Fletcher Building has announed an additional -NZ$180m provision for the 1H24 relating to the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) project and the WIAL carpark.

Fletcher Building noted the extra provisions had stemmed from higher costs and steel remediation works. Construction of the NZICC is expected by September 2024.

The broker forecasts additional cashflow drains of -NZ$70m in FY24 and -NZ$95m in FY25 as a result of the additional provisions.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price is lowered to $4.65 from $4.90.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.71
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 36.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.14 cents and EPS of 38.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.07 cents and EPS of 40.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Despite the positive rating on the stock, Jarden does not present as completely comfortable with Fletcher Building's additional -NZ$180m provision for the NZICC, just 6-months after the previous provision for the same project and a week before the release of 1H24 results.

The broker also notes the ongoing concerns around the Western Australian IPLEX "saga" and the decision around fault for that project.

The Buy rating and $6.13 target price remain unchanged. although the broker highlights the stock is unlikely to be re-rated until the wright down provisions cease.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $6.13 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $2.19
If FBU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 36.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.62 cents and EPS of 40.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.62 cents and EPS of 46.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNG    GR ENGINEERING SERVICES LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.37

Taylor Collison rates ((GNG)) as Outperform (2) –

Given the expected duration of the clean energy shift, Taylor Collison sees potential attractive returns from GR Engineering Services at the current share price.

The company has now acquired Paradigm Engineers, a move Taylor Collison finds to make strategic sense.

According to the broker, Paradigm Engineers should prove complementary to the company's Mipac acquisition, and should allow the company to further expand services into Western Australia.

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.52 are retained.

This report was published on February 12, 2024.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.15
If GNG meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $24.37

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Buy (1) –

Lovisa Holdings continues to receive a lot of love from Jarden despite the soft trading update which compares against a strong period last year.

The retailer is facing the same macro headwinds as other retailers notes the analyst, although the recent trading update, while weak, proved better than expected. Net store roll-out remains subpar in the near term.

When assessing industry updates, Jarden points to resilience in the UK and Europe, and an improvement in the US market.

The analysts raise the net profit forecasts by around 6%, 3% and 2% for FY24 to FY26 and consider the 1H24 results may come in better than anticipated.

The target price is raised to $23.79 from $23.20 and a Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $23.79 Current Price is $24.37 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.24, suggesting downside of -4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 71.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.9, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 89.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.71

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Metcash announced a $300m capital raising to acquire Superior Foods and Bianco/Alpine at a cost of -$577.50m notes Jarden.

The company also offered a trading update which came in 1% to 3% above Jardens' expectations and consensus.

Strategically, the broker likes the acquisition but considers the price being paid as "superior".

Adjusting for the acquisitions and trading update, Jarden ups FY25-FY26 EPS forecasts by around 2%-4%.

Overweight rating is retained and the target price raised to $4.30 from $4.20.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.59
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $15.11

Jarden rates ((NCK)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2) –

Jarden is very upbeat on Nick Scali's latest 1H24 results which came in much better than expected. Net profit was 7% above the broker's forecast and 5% above consensus.

Gross margins were also better than anticipated which came as a relief with concerns over the impact of higher freight rates.

Jarden assesses Nick Scali as a very high quality retailer and raises the profit after tax forecasts by 11% to 15% for FY24 to FY26.

Accordingly, the stock is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target price is raised to $13.87 from $10.40.

This report was published on February 7, 2024.

Target price is $13.87 Current Price is $15.11 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.20 cents and EPS of 94.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.01.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.30 cents and EPS of 101.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NCK)) as Market Weight (3) –

First impressions of the 1H24 Nick Scali results from Wilsons are positive.

Net profit of $43m was better than guidance of $40m to $42m and consensus of $41.1m, with a strong gross margin performance.

Plush brands and Nick Scales drove a 6% increase in like-for-like sales in 2Q24, on the previous period, and current sales orders are ahead of expectations.

Earnings forecasts are under review and management offered no guidance.

The Market Weight rating and $11.30 target price remain unchanged.

This report was published on February 6, 2024.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $15.11 Difference: minus $3.81 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.90 cents and EPS of 84.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.84.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 86.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH    PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $0.84

Jarden rates ((PGH)) as Overweight (2) –

Pact Group jumped the 1H24 results announcement on February 15th with a 1H24 trading update with reported revenue, EBITDA, EBIT and debt all meeting Jarden's forecast and market expectations.

The company is expected to delist as Kin Group now has over 85% of the register, with Pact Group's major shareholders having all accepted the offer.

Pact Group is currently trading above the revised takeover offer price of $0.84 and in the event of the offer's expiry on February 12th, some shareholders could face reduced liquidity from a small free float, highlights the analyst.

A 1.30 target price and Overweight rating are retained.

This report was published on February 6, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.455
If PGH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.63.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.25.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $106.77

Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons discusses the scope of potential outcomes for Pro Medicus' Visage Ease VP application for Apple's newest product, the Apple Vision Pro device.

The application to a 3D rendered environment in the Vision Pro reflects the strength and speed of Visage's pixel streaming technology, suggests the broker.

In addition, Wilsons points to the potential power of the technology which stretches beyond radiology and makes Visage an attractive prospect for technology companies looking to expand their virtual reality capacity.

An Overweight rating and $81.20 target price remain unchanged and will be reassessed post the 1H24 result on February 15th.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $81.20 Current Price is $106.77 Difference: minus $25.57 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $75.10, suggesting downside of -29.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.80 cents and EPS of 79.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 134.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.5, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 139.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.40 cents and EPS of 102.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.9, implying annual growth of 29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 108.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.32

Moelis rates ((RED)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis analyses the proposed Scheme of Arrangement for the merger of Red 5 and Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)).

Red 5 will issue 3.434 shares for every 1 Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)) share. The deal is subject to approval from Silver Lake Resources ((SLR)) shareholders and is viewed by Moelis as a win, win scenario.

It is the broker's view, Red 5 is leveraging its strong balance sheet to create the largest domestic gold company in the Small Cap index and the problem of Silver Lake Resources' short mine life is addressed.

The merged entity is expected to be worth between 42c to 46c per share.

The broker initiates with a Hold rating and target price of 35 cents.

This report was published on February 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.03
If RED meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.86.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RGN    REGION GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.31

Jarden rates ((RGN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden analyses the interest rate hedging changes included in Region Group's 1H24 results and considers these will allow for better returns from the core operations.

The broker also embraces the steady rent growth, more control over expenses, as well as improved income growth from development and asset re-cycling.

Post a -20% sell off in the share price in the last year, Jarden assesses the risk-reward as attractive.

Overweight rating and $2.50 target price retained.

This report was published on February 6, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.19
If RGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.20 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((RGN)) as Buy (1) –

Region Group reported 1H24 results with funds from operations of 7.6c and FY24 management guidance retained, notes Moelis.

Management restructured the interest rate hedges which is expected to lower interest rate costs in FY25 and FY26, while the NTA declined -4% in the 1H24 to $2.45 (with the rise in interest rates) to 6.04% from 5.85%.

Operationally, the results were mixed, with Supermarket and non-discretionary sales up by over 4%, while discretionary retail fell -1.5%

A Buy rating and $2.54 target price are unchanged as Moelis considers the -9% discount to NTA as attractive with the rental income stream as relatively defensive.

This report was published on February 6, 2024.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.23
If RGN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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